.. F x) = x ft)dt ), fx) : PDF : probbility density function) F x) : CDF : cumultive distribution function F x) x.2 ) T = µ p), T : ) p : x p p = F x

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1 L N ) LN3 ) III P3 ) III LP3 ) GEV ) SQRT-ET ) ) GPD) SLSC

2 .. F x) = x ft)dt ), fx) : PDF : probbility density function) F x) : CDF : cumultive distribution function F x) x.2 ) T = µ p), T : ) p : x p p = F x p ) x p = F p) x p T - µ : X x p 2) POT, Peks Over Threshold dt) AMS, Annul Mximum Series dt) µ = T T = p p = T ) N 2) T x T N AMS ) P X < x T ) N = T 4) P X x T ) N = ) N 5) T 3) 3) T N P AMS ) T N P x = x j N 6) S 2 = N C s = N x j x) 2 7) ) 3 xj x 8) S ˆσ 2 = N N S2 9) NN ) ˆγ = C s 0) N 2

3 .4 L PWM : Probbility Weighted Moments) L L Moments) L PWM) β r = 0 xf r df r = 0,, 2,... ) ) PWM L λ = β 0 2) λ 2 = 2β β 0 3) λ 3 = 6β 2 6β + β 0 4) PWM L b 0 = N b = b 2 = x j) 5) NN ) j )x j) 6) NN )N 2) j )j 2)x j) 7) x j) N j.5 F [x i) ] = i α N + 2α 8) N i x i) F [x i) ] α i ) Weibull Blom Cunnne Gringorten Hzen α

4 .6 3 ) Generlized Extreme Vlue distribution) 2 Gumbel distribution) 3 Weibull distribution with 3 prmeters) 2 SQRT exponentil-type distribution of mximum) 3 Generlized Preto distribution) 2 Exponentil distribution) 2 Norml distribution) 3 Log-Norml Distribution with 3 prmeters) III 3 Person type III distribution) III 3 Log-Person type III distribution) 3

5 2. 2. N ) x ) fx) = [ exp σ x 2π 2 ) ] 2 x µx σ x 9) 2) ) x µx F x) = Φ σ x Φz) = 2π z exp 2 ) t2 dt 20) 3) p x p z = x µ x σ x x = µ x + σ x z 2) x p = µ x + σ x z p z p p = Φz) z 22) 4) L ) b 0 = N x j) b = NN ) j )x j) 23) x j) N j b i = β i λ i λ = β 0 λ 2 = 2β β 0 24) L { µ x = λ σ x = πλ 2 25) 4

6 2.2 LN3 ) x 3 ) fx) = { exp x )σ y 2π 2 [ ] } 2 lnx ) µy σ y y = lnx ) 26) 2) ) lnx ) µy F x) = Φ σ y Φz) = 2π z exp 2 ) t2 dt 27) 3) p x p z = lnx ) µ y σ y x = + expµ y + σ y z) 28) x p = + expµ y + σ y z p ) z p p = Φz) z 29) 4) : ) = x 2 ) x N) x m x ) + x N) 2x m > 0 x ) + x N) 2x m µ y = N N lnx j ) 30) σ 2 y = N N [lnx j ) µ y ] 2 x ) x N) x m ) x j x j) 5) ) ) 3 xj x 3) x = N x j S 2 x = N x j x) 2 C sx = N S x NN ) µ x = x σ x = [N/N )] /2 S x γ x = C sx 32) N 2 x i ln x i ) ) γ x Bobee Robitille ) B C sx 3 γ x = C sxa + B C 3 sx ) 33) A = /N /N 2 B =.69/N /N 2 34) 5

7 µ x = + expµ y ) expσy/2) 2 35) σ x = expµ y ) expσy){expσ 2 y) 2 } 36) γ x = {expσy) 2 + 2} expσy) 2 37) σ y, µ y, 3 γ x = {expσy) 2 + 2} expσy) 2 x 3 + 3x 2 4 γx 2 = 0 where, x = expσy) 2 38) 3 x x = β + ) /3 β 2 + β ) /3 β 2 γ 2 where, β = + x 2 σ y = lnx) ) σ x µ y = ln xx ) = µ x expµ y ) expσy/2) 2 : x x 3 + 3x 2 4 γ 2 x = 0 39) 6) ) z = lnx ) µ y σ y z = A X + B 40) X = lnx ) A = σ y B = µ y σ y 4) z % µ y = B A σ y = A : ) = x ) δ δ: ) 6

8 2.3 III P3 ) x III Person type 3 distribution ) ) fx) = Γb) x c ) b exp x c ) > 0 : c x < 42) c b 2) ) x c F x) = G Gw) = Γb) w 0 t b exp t)dt > 0) 43) 3) p x p w = x c x = c + w 44) x p = c + w p w p p = Gw) w 45) 4) ) ) 3 xj x 46) x = N x j S 2 x = N x j x) 2 C sx = N S x µ x = x σ x = [N/N )] /2 S x γ x = ) NN ) C sx 47) N 2 γ x Bobee Robitille III ) ) B C sx 2 γ x = C sx A + B C 2 sx ) 48) A = + 6.5/N /N 2 B =.48/N /N 2 49) µ x = c + b σ x 2 = 2 b γ x = 2 b 2 b = 4/γ x b > 0) = σ x / b γ x < 0 = σ x / b < 0) c = µ x b 50) 5) γ x < 0 < 0 w p p γ x III 7

9 2.4 III LP3 ) x y = ln x III ) fx) = Γb) x ln x c ) b exp ln x c ) > 0 : expc) < x < 52) c b 2) ) ln x c F x) = G Gw) = Γb) w 0 t b exp t)dt > 0) 53) 3) p x p w = ln x c x = expc + w) 54) x p = expc + w p ) w p p = Gw) w 55) 4) ) ) 3 yj ȳ 56) y j = ln x j ȳ = N y j S 2 y = N y j ȳ) 2 C sy = N S y µ y = ȳ σ y = [N/N )] /2 S y γ y = ) NN ) C sy 57) N 2 γ x Bobee Robitille III ) ) B C sy 2 γ y = C sy A + B C 2 sy ) 58) A = + 6.5/N /N 2 B =.48/N /N 2 59) µ y = c + b σ y 2 = 2 b γ y = 2 b 2 b = 4/γ y b > 0) = σ y / b γ y < 0 = σ y / b < 0) c = µ y b 60) 6) γ y < 0 < 0 w p p γ y b b Wilson-Hilferty p x p x p = expµ y + σ y K p ) K p = 2 + γ yz p γ y 2 ) 2 62) γ y 6 36 γ y 8

10 z p N0, ) Wilson-Hilferty b < 0, 000 γ y < 0 z p p K p γ y γ y p γ y 9

11 2.5 x Gumbel distribution) ) fx) = [ exp x c exp x c )] < x < 63) c 2) [ F x) = exp exp x c )] 64) 3) p x p [ p = exp exp x c )] x = c ln[ lnp)] 65) x p = c ln[ lnp)] 66) 4) L ) b 0 = N x j) b = NN ) j )x j) 67) x j) N j b i = β i λ i λ = β 0 λ 2 = 2β β 0 68) L { = λ 2 / ln 2 c = λ ) 0

12 2.6 GEV ) x Generlized Extreme Vlue distribution) k = 0 ) fx) = k x c ) [ /k exp k x c ) ] /k k 0) 70) c k 2) F x) = exp [ k x c ) ] /k k 0) 7) 3) p x p p = exp [ k x c ) ] /k x = c + k { [ lnp)] k} 72) x p = c + k { [ lnp)] k} 73) 4) L ) b 0 = N x j) b = NN ) j )x j) b 2 = NN )N 2) j )j 2)x j) 74) x j) N j b i = β i λ i λ = β 0 λ 2 = 2β β 0 λ 3 = 6β 2 6β + β 0 75) L k = d d 2 d = 2λ 2 ln2) λ 3 + 3λ 2 ln3) kλ 2 = 2 k ) Γ + k) c = λ [ Γ + k)] k 76)

13 2.7 SQRT-ET ) x SQRT exponentil-type distribution of mximum) ) fx) = b [ 2 exp bx + ) bx exp )] bx x 0) 77) 2) [ F x) = exp + ) bx exp )] bx x 0) 78) 3) p x p [ p = exp + ) bx exp )] bx = exp [ + t p ) exp t p )] t p = bx) 79) x = t p 2 ln + t p ) t p = ln [ ] b lnp) 80) x p = t p 2 b ln + t p ) t p = ln [ ] lnp) 8) ) t p gt p ) = ln + t p ) t p ln [ ] lnp) 82) g t p ) = + t p 83) gt p ) g0) > 0 Newton- Rphson gt p ) = 0 t p t pn+) = t pn) gt pn)) g t pn) ) n) 84) t p p x p x t p = b x mx t p 4) ) b L L, b) = ln fx j ) = N ln + N ln b N ln 2 bxj exp ) bx j + bxj exp ) bx j 85) 2

14 L b 0 b L b = 0 = N bxj 2N N bx j) exp ) = 86) bx j L 0 b 2 L = 0 = N N exp ) N bx j + bxj exp ) = 2 87) bx j L = 2 hb) = b) 2 b) = 0 b 2 > 0 > 0 b > 0 b > N ) 2 2N 88) xj b b C ) /* Bisection method */ b=bb; /* >0 b ) */ b2=b+0.5; /* b+0.5 b2 */ bb=0.5*b+b2); /* bb */ f=fsqrnd,dtx,b,&,&2); /* hb) */ f2=fsqrnd,dtx,b2,&,&2); /* hb2) */ ff=fsqrnd,dtx,bb,&,&2); /* hbb) */ do{ /* */ iff*ff<0.0)b2=bb; ifff*f2<0.0)b=bb; ifff==0.0)brek; if0.0<f*ff&&0.0<ff*f2){b=b2;b2=b+0.5;} /* */ bb=0.5*b+b2); /* 0.5 */ f=fsqrnd,dtx,b,&,&2); f2=fsqrnd,dtx,b2,&,&2); ff=fsqrnd,dtx,bb,&,&2); }while0.00<fbs-2)); /* hb) <0.00 */ 3

15 2.8 3 ) x 3 Weibull distribution) ) fx) = k ) [ k ) ] k x c x c exp k = 0) 89) c k 2) [ ) ] k x c F x) = exp k 0) 90) 3) p x p [ ) ] k x c p = exp x = c + [ ln p)] /k 9) x p = c + [ ln p)] /k 92) 4) L *) ) b 0 = N x j) b = NN ) j )x j) b 2 = NN )N 2) j )j 2)x j) 93) x j) N j b i = β i λ i λ = β 0 λ 2 = 2β β 0 λ 3 = 6β 2 6β + β 0 94) L k = 285.3τ τ τ τ τ τ τ = λ 3 /λ 2 λ 2 = 2 /k ) Γ + /k) c = λ Γ + /k) 95) *) L-moments B2 ) Vol.B2-65 No pp k λ 3 τ 3 = λ3/λ 2 A k 5) ) 3 c k I) c 4

16 x F x) x [ ) ] k x c F x) = exp 96) 2 ln{ ln[ F x)]} = k lnx c) k ln Y = A X + B 97) Y i = ln{ ln[ F x i )]} X i = lnx i c) k = A = exp B/A) c c c 3 k c c k k Newton-Rphson II) k c t = x c ft) = k ) [ k ) ] k t t exp 98) L = N i= ln ft i) k Newton-Rphson k c L k = 0 k + N i= ln t i N N i= [ln t i) t i k ] N i= t i k = 0 99) L = 0 = N i= t ) /k i k 00) N gk) = k + T 0 N T 2k) T k) g k) = k 2 T 3k) T k) [T 2 k)] 2 [T k)] 2 0) T 0 = ln t i T k) = i= i= t i k T 2 k) = [ln t i t k i ] T 3 k) = [ln t i ln t i t k i ] 02) i= i= k n k n+ = k n gk n) g k n ) 03) k N i= = t ) /k i k 04) N 5

17 2.9 x Exponentil distribution) ) fx) = exp x c ) 05) c 2) F x) = exp x c ) 06) 3) p x p p = exp x c ) x = c ln p) 07) x p = c ln p) 08) 4) L ) b 0 = N x j) b = NN ) j )x j) 09) x j) N j b i = β i λ i λ = β 0 λ 2 = 2β β 0 0) L { = 2λ 2 c = λ ) 6

18 2.0 GPD) x Generlized Preto distribution) k = 0 ) fx) = c k 2) k x c ) /k k 0) 2) F x) = k x c ) /k k 0) 3) 3) p x p p = k x c ) /k x = c + { p) k } 4) k x p = c + k { p) k} 5) 4) L ) b 0 = N x j) b = NN ) j )x j) b 2 = NN )N 2) j )j 2)x j) 6) x j) N j b i = β i λ i λ = β 0 λ 2 = 2β β 0 λ 3 = 6β 2 6β + β 0 7) L k = λ 2 3λ 3 λ 2 + λ 3 8) = + k)2 + k)λ 2 c = λ 2 + k)λ 2 7

19 3. 3. Q-Q quntile-quntile) r = N X i Y i X i Y i [N X 2 i X i ) 2 ] [N Y i2 Y i ) 2 ] 3.2 SLSC r : N : X i Y i : : SLSC = N j=n s j r j ) r 0.99 r 0.0 9) s i r i Normlized vrible by prmeters Normlized vrible by Plotting position formul r 0.99 Normlized vlue corresponding to the non-exceednce probbility of 99% r 0.0 Normlized vlue corresponding to the non-exceednce probbility of % Distribution S i r i LN3 lnx i ) µ y σ y qnormp i) %-point of SND) LP3 Gumbel exp ln x i c xi c ) qgmmp i, shpe = b, rte = ) %-point of Gmm Distribution) lnp i ) GEV k x i c ) /k lnp i) SQRT-ET exp{ln + bx i ) bx i } lnp i ) Weibull ) k xi c ln p i) Exponentil GPD k ln x i c ) k xi c ln p i ) ln p i ) 8

20 4. Jckknife JckKnife ) 2 3 N x i) ˆθ i N ˆθ i) n ˆθ i) N ˆθ ) ˆθ ) = N ˆθ i) 20) i= 4 N x i) ˆθ N ˆθ ) jckknife θ θ = N ˆθ N ) ˆθ ) 2) 5 θ SE) SE) = N ˆθi) N ˆθ ) 2 ) 22) i= 5. bootstrp N x i) N N θ i) θ i) bootstrp ) B bootstrp ˆ θ = B B θ i) 23) bootstrp bootstrp percentile method) i= 9

21 6. N x ɛ β 0 ɛ 0 ɛ 0 = β 0 ) /N β 5%) 24) N F x) )q % u ɛ u ɛ Φ q = F x ɛ ) = Φu ɛ ) 25) 5 N F, M ) F M= N ) F = ) M 2 u ɛ M + 26) 6 F 2ɛ ) M FM 2ɛ) 2 = u ɛ M + ɛ ɛ 0 ɛ ɛ 0 ɛ > ɛ 0 ) ) 27) 28) ) F F % 20

22 No ) No ) No L-moments B2 ) Vol.B2-65 No pp6-65 Derek A. Roff ) ) KADOYA Mutsumi : Appliction of Extreme Vlue Distribution in Hydrologic Frequency Anlysis Prt II. Singulr Hydrologic Amount nd Rejection Test, Cittion Bulletins - Disster Prevention Reserch Institute, Kyoto University 964), 66: 33-44, URL 2

.. ( )T p T = p p = T () T x T N P (X < x T ) N = ( T ) N (2) ) N ( P (X x T ) N = T (3) T N P T N P 0

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