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1 II

2 i

3 ii

4 [1] [2]

5 1.1: [3] : [5] 2

6 [4] 1. (a) (b) (c) 2. (a) (b) (c) 3. (a) (b)

7 1.4 [6] [6] [6] [6] [6]

8 : : 5

9

10 : : : 2.2 [6] [7] 3 3 7

11 2.1: 2.1 [6] /1 = ( ) ( ) ( ) lamount pre rate 8

12 : ( ) ( ) 2.3: ( ) ( ) ( ) 9

13 [7] lasset I(2) I(1) Granger ARIMA VAR VAR Unrestricted VAR Structured VAR Unrestricted VAR Unrestricted VAR contemporaneous relationship Unrestricted VAR Unrestricted VAR VAR Schwarz Information Criterion VAR 1 VAR P-value y1996 P-value= y2000 P-value= y2007 P-value= y

14

15 3 3.1 premium proceeds expense (3.1) premium = proceeds + expense (3.1) amount proceeds (3.1) premium (3.2) re ratio + ex ratio = 1 (3.2) ( re ratio = proceeds ) premium, expense ex ratio = (3.3) premium re ratio ex ratio T 12

16 3.1: (1980 )/(1981 ) ( )

17 t fp t sp t na t ha t a t n t m t k t ta t ta + 1 t ta t sp t,ta = na t 1 ta t 1 =ta (1 stop t 1 ) sp t ha t na t a t,ta = na t 1 ta t 1 =ta (1 stop t 1 ) a t ha t n t,ta = na t 1 ta t 1 =ta (1 stop t 1 ) n t ha t k t,ta = na t 1 ta t 1 =ta (1 stop t 1 ) k t ha t stop t t [7] 1989 [6] ta T (3.4) premium T ta = fp ta + ta+t 1 t 1 =ta+1 sp t1,ta (3.4) t 1 ta T (3.5) proceeds T ta = ta+t 1 t 1 =ta (a t1,ta + n t1,ta + k t1,ta) + m ta+t 1 (3.5) 4 14

18 : 5 + T ta re ratio T ta (3.6) re ratio T ta = proceedst ta premium T ta (3.6) re ratio ex ratio 1 (3.7) 2013 T [ min 1 (re ratio T t + ex ratio t ) ] 2 T t=1968 (3.7) T t T T (3.7) T T (3.7) 11 15

19 : ± lasset death rate lincome pop CPI I(2) I(1) VAR Schwarz Information Criterion VAR (1) 1996 y

20 (3)

21

22 [1],, 2011 [2],, 2011 [3],, [4] ( ),, [5], 37 [6],, [7],,

23 pre rate lamount lasset return death rate lincome pop CPI y1996 y2000 y2007 1: ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 (100 ) re ratio 11 re ratio 9 re ratio 13 lamount sum lasset return death rate lincome pop CPI y1996 2: 11 ( ) 9 ( ) 13 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 (100 )

24 L L2 D D2 3: (1996 ) VAR (1) (2) (3) VARIABLES D.lamount D.lasset D.pre rate LD.lamount (0.8398) (0.8246) (0.1454) LD.lasset *** *** *** (0.0060) (0.0036) (0.0052) LD.pre rate * (0.2749) (0.8967) (0.0938) LD.return (0.5813) (0.8412) (0.1246) LD.death rate (0.9899) (0.8898) (0.4038) LD.income pop CPI (0.2096) (0.4181) (0.9503) y ** (0.1075) (0.0399) Constant ** *** (0.0228) (0.6006) (0.0092) Observations pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 21

25 4: 2000 VAR (1) (2) (3) VARIABLES D.lamount D.lasset D.pre rate LD.lamount * (0.8763) (0.6287) (0.0786) LD.lasset *** *** (0.0068) (0.0000) (0.1523) LD.pre rate (0.3324) (0.9570) (0.1444) LD.return (0.5913) (0.1868) (0.9347) LD.death rate (0.7880) (0.8490) (0.5717) LD.income pop CPI (0.5913) (0.1265) (0.5677) y (0.6309) (0.2504) (0.4405) Constant (0.1729) (0.5410) (0.3541) Observations pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 22

26 5: (2007 ) VAR (1) (2) (3) VARIABLES D.lamount D.lasset D.pre rate LD.lamount * (0.6561) (0.8137) (0.0954) LD.lasset *** *** ** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0160) LD.pre rate (0.1116) (0.8636) (0.1418) LD.return (0.6806) (0.4231) (0.6638) LD.death rate (0.7100) (0.9013) (0.5217) LD.income pop CPI (0.5281) (0.3336) (0.6937) y ** (0.0172) (0.8314) (0.8492) Constant *** * (0.0001) (0.7446) (0.0591) Observations pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 23

27 6: (11 ) Var (1) (2) (3) VARIABLES D2.re ratio 11 D2.lasset D2.lamount sum LD2.re ratio ** (0.0103) (0.632) (0.938) L2D2.re ratio *** ( ) (0.956) (0.321) LD2.lasset *** * (0.824) ( ) (0.0733) L2D2.lasset *** (0.871) (0.230) ( ) LD2.lamount sum *** (0.299) (0.387) (8.62e-05) L2D2.lamount sum *** (0.306) (6.87e-06) (0.880) LD2.return *** (0.158) (7.62e-06) (0.148) LD2.death rate 0.202* * (0.0935) (0.0774) (0.631) LD2.lincome pop CPI 0.689** *** 1.768** (0.0384) ( ) (0.0339) y (0.378) (0.537) (0.714) Constant (0.806) (0.141) (0.908) Observations pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 24

28 7: (9 ) Var (1) (2) (3) VARIABLES D2.re ratio 9 D2.lasset D2.lamount sum LD2.re ratio ** ** *** (0.0207) (0.0341) ( ) L2D2.re ratio *** *** *** ( ) (5.19e-05) ( ) L3D2.re ratio (0.328) (0.381) (0.178) LD2.lasset *** *** (0.599) ( ) (3.35e-05) L2D2.lasset *** (0.141) (0.726) (0) L3D2.lasset *** (0.202) ( ) (0.187) LD2.lamount sum ** *** (0.0294) (0.282) (1.29e-06) L2D2.lamount sum ** ** (0.843) (0.0166) (0.0150) L3D2.lamount sum *** (0.167) (0.236) (1.11e-08) LD2.return 7.302** *** 10.27** (0.0124) (7.35e-05) (0.0208) LD2.death rate (0.287) (0.233) (0.757) LD2.lincome pop CPI *** 1.417** (0.567) ( ) (0.0307) y (0.350) (0.232) (0.527) Constant (0.644) (0.708) (0.652) Observations pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 25

29 8: (13 ) Var (1) (2) (3) VARIABLES D2.re ratio 13 D2.lasset D2.lamount sum LD2.re ratio ** ** (0.0332) (0.0470) (0.339) L2D2.re ratio * *** (0.0502) (0.326) ( ) LD2.lasset *** *** (0.107) ( ) ( ) L2D2.lasset *** (0.488) (0.530) ( ) LD2.lamount sum *** (0.752) (0.881) (7.92e-05) L2D2.lamount sum *** (0.278) ( ) (0.663) LD2.return 6.580** *** (0.0199) (4.89e-07) (0.111) LD2.death rate 0.284* * (0.0526) (0.0902) (0.674) LD2.lincome pop CPI 0.953** ** 1.614** (0.0304) (0.0167) (0.0478) y (0.426) (0.597) (0.644) Constant (0.868) (0.172) (0.574) Observations pval in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 26

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