ルーカス型総供給方程式の批判的吟味

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とよみちゃわんや
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1 1 ABSTRACT A detailed analysis on some special characteristics of Lucas's ASL/LAS under generalized conditions: a synthetic understanding of both Lucasian and Keynesian systems by Haruki Niwa First of all, in this paper, the logic of derivation of the Lucas's ASL/LAS is plainly explained, by the use of Graph 1 and Graph 2 in the text. Though, the illustrations are rather popular, a very important fact should be noted here that, an indispensable presumption for the Lucas's anti-keynesian theorem based on the vertical LAS is the assumed constant rate of operation of enterprises' fixed capital stock. The macro-total volume of enterprises' fixed capital stock might be assumed to be given as a constant for a 'short-term' of three or four years (i.e., approximately same to a gestation period of investment). However, even during such a short-term period, the rate of operation of enterprises' fixed capital stock would be changed, corresponding to the moving of total demand caused by transitional phases of trade cycle. Needless to say, the upward changes in the rate of operation of fixed capital stock due to augmented demands might induce some shifts of production functions, bringing about increases in productivity and profits. Such effects of the changes in rate of operation and the shifts of production functions are cited in Graph 3 in the text. Graph 4 shows the adjusted ASL and LAS under the generalized conditions reckoned with the effects cited Graph 3. Any way, we must see that, under the generalized conditions, Lucas's LAS in Graph 4 is not vertical but rather flat. It means, in the actual world under the generalized conditions, Lucas's ASL/LAS is also consistent with the most Keynesian policies. In other words, Graph 4 suggests a synthetic understanding of both Keynesian and Lucasian systems. The implications of it would be very important for any drafting of fiscal policies.

2 2 Lucas, R., E., Jr.. 1 Yt Y a( Pt Pt* ) a t Pt* P Y Yt

3 3 Pt* Pt t Y 2. 2

4 L 2 L3 L 1 Y2 Y3 Y1 Y2 Y3 ASL E GDP Y2 Y2 Y Y2( Y) e E

5 5 e e ASL ASL ASL LAS E E GDP 2 Y Y YLAS Y E E E E

6 6 LAS LAS

7 7 12

8 8 Z Z f1 f2 f Lc1 Lc2 Lc3 f 1 f2 f3 f1 f2 f3 1 S SS f1 f2 f3 f1 f2 f3 100 LD1 LD2 LD3

9 9 e* L1 L2 e* L* L1 L* 2 L* L 1 f2 f3 LD1 LD2 LD3 100 E1 E2 E3 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y3 ASL LAS e3 L3 Y3 E4 Y Y4 e1 e2 e3 e4 P Pt Y Y

10 10 Y Yt 5. E2 Y2 E4 Y4 Y2 E4 Y4 Y2 Y4 Y2

11 11....

12 12

13 13 D S D D' q qz Pz y 0 q 0 E qz E' Y2 SS S1 SS D D' y 0 yn y 0

14 14 f Z Y W L Lc L W

15 15

16 16 R. E. Lucas, Jr., Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Trade-offs, The American Economic Review, June 1973, Vol. 63, No. 3, pp Rodney Maddock & Michael Catter, A Child s Guide to Rational Expectations, Journal of Economic Literature, March 1982, Vol. 20,pp , B Michael Parkin and Robin Bade, Macroeconomics, 2nd ed.,prentice-hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1992, pp ASL

17 17 Haruki Niwa, The Rrecent Deflatinary Gap in Japan:a Quantitative Measurement, EconomicsVol. 11, No.2,pp Shuntaro Shishido, Japan s Economic Growth and Policy Making in the Context of Leontief s Scientific Contributions, paper presented to 13th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, August, 2000

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