ボーナス制度と家計貯蓄率-サーベイ・データによる再検証-

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1 ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.139 by May 2005 Economic and Social Research Instute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan

2

3 * 400 : JEL classification: D12, E21 * FAX

4 Abstract (100 words) A number of hypotheses have been proposed to examine why Japan s household saving rate was high. This paper takes advantage of a micro-level data from Public Opinion Survey on Household Financial Assets and Liabilies to reexamine the effects of the bonus system on households savings. We find the average saving rate of households wh bonus payments is surely higher than that of households whout bonus, after controlling several factors that might affect saving patterns. However, this observation reflects that households wh negative saving rate are unevenly clustered on the non-bonus group. The posive effect of bonus payments on household saving rate disappears once the sample is divided into households wh posive and those wh negative saving rate. Keywords: Japan s saving rate, bonus system JEL classification: D12, E21 2

5 Hayashi [1986] Horioka [1990] 1 (Shinohara(1962) ) 80 1 Ishikawa and Ueda (1984) Sato (1987) [2003] [2004] 3

6 , ,000 4

7 a (b)

8 , ,000 (1) (2) , ,300 1, , , (8)

9 Horioka (1990) 36 7 (1) 7 Horioka 7

10 (2) (3)

11 9 10 (4) [1990]

12 (1) 11 Ishikawa and Ueda [1984] Horioka[1990] (2) Hab-Buffer Income Hypothesis Ishikawa and Ueda (1984) 1 (3) [1980] Shinohara [1982] (1963) 12 (1981)

13 (4) (1992) SR i t SR = α J 0 γ 1J t α TimeDum β BonusDum t Age( J) Dum ω ln AnnualIncome t γ OldLifeDum ω ln FAssets ω DoubleIncomeDum ω Worker Dum K 3K γ BorrowDum γ RiskDum γ GoalSave γ ω Family 3 ε Resid( K) Dum ω Family 4 2 (A) BonusDum β β TimeDum t γ 3.1 Age(J)Dum 10 J=30,40,50,60,70 OldLifeDum Resid(K)Dum 100 lump-sum payment hypothesis 13 11

14 BorrowDum RiskDum GoalSave ω AnnualIncome Fassets Family Family 2 DoubleIncomeDum WorkerDum (A) (1) 2 β

15 β (2) i t i (A) ε 18 (A)

16 14 I I K K J J t t t Dum I Job g medum DoubleInco f Family f Family f Fassets f me AnnualInco f GoalSave e RiskDum e BorrowDum e Dum K sid e OldLifeDum e Dum J Age e TimeDum a a BonusDum ob ) ( ln ln ) ( Re ) ( 1) ( Pr = = (B) f 4 (A) (1) 3(2) (A) (B) 14 16,

17 9 & x x

18 (1) (2) (3) (2) (3)

19 no No.04-J-12. (1963) no III Hayashi, Fumio (1986). Why is Japan s saving rate so apparently high? in Fischer ed. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, vol. 1. pp Hayashi, Fumio (1997). Understanding Saving: Evidence from the Uned States and Japan, MIT Press. Horioka, Charles Yuji (1990). Why is Japan s Household Saving Rate So High? A 17

20 Lerature Survey, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies vol.4, pp Ishikawa, Tsuneo and Kazuo Ueda (1984). The Bonus Payment System and Japanese Personal Savings, in Aoki ed. The Economic Analysis of the Japanese Firm, pp Mizoguchi, Toshiyuki (1970). Personal Savings and Consumption in Postwar Japan, Economic Research Series No.12, Instute of Economic Research, Hotsubashi Universy, Kinokuniya. Sato, Kazuo (1987). Saving and Investment, in Yamamura and Yasuba ed. The Polical Economy of Japan Volume 1: The Domestic Transformation, pp Shinohara, Miyohei (1959). The Structure of Saving and Consumption Function in Postwar Japan, Journal of Polical Economy, vol.67 (6), pp Shinohara, Miyohei (1962). Growth and Cycles in the Japanese Economy, Economic Research Series No.5, Instute of Economic Research, Hotsubashi Universy, Kinokuniya. Shinohara, Miyohei (1970). Structural Changes in Japan s Economic Development, Economic Research Series No.12, Instute of Economic Research, Hotsubashi Universy, Kinokuniya. Shinohara, Miyohei (1982). Japan s High Savings Ratio: Its Determinants and Behavior Patterns, wh Some Comparisons wh Asian NICS, Industrial Growth, Trade, and Dynamic Patterns in the Japanese Economy, Universy of Tokyo Press. 18

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23 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** Root MSE ( *** ** *

24 df/dx ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** (at x-bar) LR chi2(37) Root MSE ( *** ** *

25 * ** * ** * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** Root MSE ( *** ** *

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