SNAと家計調査における貯蓄率の乖離－日本の貯蓄率低下の要因－
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1 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 10-J-003
2 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 10-J 年 12 月 SNA と家計調査における貯蓄率の乖離 - 日本の貯蓄率低下の要因 - 宇南山卓 ( 神戸大学大学院経済学研究科 ) 要 旨 SNA と家計調査から計算される家計貯蓄率の乖離の原因を明らかにし 日本の貯蓄率の低下の原因を考察した 特に 近年の統計の整備を活用することで 先行研究では困難とされた問題を解決した こうした統計の改善を用いて 先行研究で知られた要因を調整すると 貯蓄率の乖離の 3 分の 2 が説明できた 本稿では さらに 家計調査の誤差を検討し 残りの 3 分の 1 の乖離を説明した 原因を明らかにしたことで これらの家計調査の誤差を修正する方法を提示し乖離を解消することができた 近年の貯蓄率の低下は 高齢化という人口の年齢構成の変化のみならず 無職世帯の貯蓄率が急激に低下したことが原因となっていることが示唆された キーワード : 貯蓄率 SNA 家計調査高齢化 JEL classification: C82, D12, D91 RIETI ディスカッション ペーパーは 専門論文の形式でまとめられた研究成果を公開し 活発な議論を喚起 することを目的としています 論文に述べられている見解は執筆者個人の責任で発表するものであり ( 独 ) 経 済産業研究所としての見解を示すものではありません 本稿は ( 独 ) 経済産業研究所におけるプロジェクト 少子高齢化のもとでの経済成長 の一環として執筆されたものである 本稿の作成の過程で 総務省統計局の佐藤朋彦氏には有益な情報とコメントを頂いた 岩本康志氏 吉川洋氏 青山学院大学でのセミナー 第 10 回マクロコンファレンス 関西計量経済研究会の参加者には貴重なコメントをいただいた また 神戸大学の荒木恵氏 久保一佳氏にはデータの入力 整理の支援を受けた 記して感謝したい
3 1 (System of National Account SNA) (, 1992) 1980 (Hayashi, 1986; Christiano, 1989; Horioka, 1990; Dekle and Summers, 1991) ( Chen, Imrohoroglu, and Imrohoroglu, 2006; Koga, 2006; Braun, Ikeda, and Joines, 2008) SNA SNA SNA 2 1 ( 1) SNA 20% 1980 (, 1993;, 1993;, ;, 1999) 1 Demery and Duck (2006) 1
4 SNA ( ) SNA SNA 93SNA 68SNA SNA Banks and Johnson (1998) Family Expenditure Survey
5 , 1996 SNA 70% (1995) % SNA 30% 15% (,2009) (, 1989;, 1996;, 2007) (Atkinson et al, 1995; Banks and Johnson, 1998) SNA SNA 5% SNA SNA 3
6 SNA SNA SNA 2.1 SNA SNA 2 SNA 5 SNA 4
7 4 ( ), 1993;, 1995; 1996;, ( 1) ( 2) 11% 33% 20% 30% % 4 World Bank (2008) SNA % % 5
8 (1995) 3 3.6% (1995) 5% % % % % 4 (1995) 3 ( 10 ) SNA (1995) SNA % % 10 6
9 2.2 SNA SNA 4 11 SNA 2 SNA (, 1995) 12 93SNA SNA (5) (4) ( ) SNA (1) SNA (1989) (
10 SNA (, 1995) SNA SNA SNA SNA SNA 13 SNA (5) (4) ( ) 68SNA 93SNA (, 1999, 2001) 68SNA SNA (, 1999)
11 SNA 17 SNA SNA 18 68SNA SNA (, 1993;, 1995) 93SNA 19 93SNA SNA SNA 93SNA 68SNA SNA (, 2001 p. 110) 19 68SNA 93SNA (, 2001 p.74) 9
12 1 2 SNA SNA, 2001 p SNA SNA SNA 23 ( a. 10
13 ,2001 p SNA SNA 2 SNA 24 SNA SNA SNA 3 SNA SNA (1995) 2 93SNA 24 68SNA 93SNA 11
14 SNA 4 68SNA SNA (1995) SNA 5 (1995) SNA (1995) SNA SNA (1995) SNA 2.3 SNA SNA 1 1 SNA SNA 12
15 25 26, 1999 p SNA SNA SNA % p p (1993) (1995) SNA (1999) 13
16 SNA SNA % SNA ( 3) SNA SNA ( 3) SNA 7% SNA % 2 10% SNA 7% 7% 40% 30% 70% 3 2 (1995) 7% 30% SNA 70% 14
17 2 3 (1996) 2 SNA 2 Banks and Johnson (1998) Family Expenditure Survey (1996) SNA SNA 1 SNA 2 29 (2009) 15
18 ( 5) % 100% 100% ( 4) A % ( 4) B
19 5.7 85% A % 15% p ,000 SNA (, 1999: p.18) SNA SNA 33 9,000 ( (2008) ) 17
20 (2009) ( 3) % 15% (1/0.85) % % % SNA 3.3 SNA SNA 18
21 (1989) (1996) (2007) 1 SNA SNA 5% SNA 34 ( 4) ( 1) SNA 1980 ( 19 p.481) SNA 35 SNA SNA ( 5) 1991 SNA SNA SNA % 2 34 Atkinson et al (1995) Banks and Johnson (1998) 35 19
22 1 SNA SNA SNA SNA SNA (, 2001) SNA ( 6) A SNA ( 5) 1991 SNA 14.9% 0.8% SNA 4.5% 0.3%
23 SNA SNA 37 SNA SNA ( 6) B 3 SNA % % % SNA 10 1 SNA 5% 10% SNA SNA 21
24 SNA 3 1 SNA ( 7) A SNA SNA 2 SNA ( 7) B SNA 1% 9.5% 1995 SNA 3 SNA SNA 22
25 1 SNA ( 6) SNA SNA SNA SNA 5% (2007) 15 ( 8) 15 SNA 1990 SNA 2 4 SNA 2 23
26 38 SNA SNA SNA (, 1993;, 1995) ( 9) %, 1963;, 1994) 20% SNA
27 20% SNA 5 SNA SNA 93SNA 3 1 (1995) % 30% % SNA, 1989;, 1996;,
28 SNA 5% SNA 1990 (Fair and Dominguez, 1991; Horioka, 1997; Demery and Duck, 2006; Erlandsen and Nymoen, 2008) Horioka, 1997; Koga, 2006 Braun, Ikeda, and Joines, 2008 ( 2)
29 SNA 27
30 [1] (1995) (1) 35 [2] (1996) (2) 37 [3] (1993) [4] (2009) [5] (1963) [6] (2008) NIRA [7] (1989) 116. [8] (1994) NTT [9] (1999) SNA [10] (2001) 93SNA [11] (2007) / 4 [12] (1993) SNA 99 pp [13] (1992) 28
31 [14] Atkinson, A. B., L. Rainwater, and T. M. Smeeding (1995) Income Distribution in OECD Countries: Evidence from the Luxembourg Income Study, Paris, OECD. [15] R. Anton Braun, Daisuke Ikeda, Douglas H. Joines (2008) The saving rate in Japan: Why it has fallen and why it will remain low CARF Working Paper CARF-F-117. [16] Banks, J. and P. Johnson (1998) How Reliable Is the Expenditure Survey?: Trends in Incomes and Expenditures over Time, Institute of Fiscal Studies: London. [17] Chen, Kaiji, A. Imrohoroglu and S. Imrohoroglu The Japanese Saving Rate. American Economic Review, vol. 96(5), pp [18] Christiano, Lawrence (1989) Understanding Japan s Saving Rate: The Reconstruction Hypothesis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, vol. 23, pp [19] Dekle, R. and L. Summers (1991) Japan s High Saving Rate Reaffirmed, Monetary and Economic Studies, vol 9, pp [20] Demery, D. and N. W. Duck (2006) Demographic Change and the UK Savings Rate, Applied Economics, vol 38, pp [21] Erlandsen, S. and R. Nymoen (2008) Consumption and Population Age Structure, Journal of Population Economics, vol 21, pp [22] Fair, R. C. and K. M. Dominguez (1991) Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations, American Economic Review, vol 81, pp [23] Hayashi, F. (1986) Why is Japan s Saving Rate so Apparently High?, in Stanley Fischer, ed., NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Cambridge: MIT Press [24] Hayashi, F. (1989) Is Japan s Saving Rate High? Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, vol 13(2). [25] Horioka, C. (1990) Why is Japan s Household Saving Rate so High? A Literature Survey, Journal of the Japanese and International Economics, vol. 4, pp
32 [26] Horioka, C. (1997) A Cointegration Analysis of the Impact of the Age Structure of the Population on the Household Saving Rate in Japan, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 79, pp [27] Koga, Maiko (2006) The Decline of Japan s Saving Rate and Demographic Effects, Japanese Economic Review, vol. 57(2), pp [28] World Bank (2008) Statistical Manual: National Accounts (available at 30
33 1:
34 2: SNA (2005 ) SNA (2000 ) ( ) SNA 45.7 SNA ( ) 27.2 SNA ( ) SNA SNA 10.2 SNA SNA SNA 1.3 SNA SNA ( ) ( ) ( ) 32
35 3: ,908 7,912 7,896 7,891 7,854 7,830 7, ,018 20,392 20,483 19,847 16,868 17,064 17,
36 4: A ,819 99, ,323 98,928 97,245 98,616 96, , , , , , , , B. 305, , , , , , , , , , , , , , (1 34
37 5: ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 73 ( )
38 ( PHS ) 50 ( )
39 ( ) 76 ( )
40 1: SNA 38
41 2: 39
42 3: SNA 40
43 4: 41
44 5: SNA 42
45 6: SNA 43
46 7: SNA 44
47 8: SNA : 45
48 9: ( ) 46
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