日本の世帯属性別貯蓄率の動向について:アップデートと考察

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1 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 18-J-024

2 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 18-J 年 8 日本の世帯属性別貯蓄率の動向について : アップデートと考察 1 宇南 卓 ( 経済産業研究所 ) 野太郎 ( 信州 学 ) 要 旨 全国消費実態調査 家計調査 家計消費状況調査を補完的に利用することでマクロ統計と整合的な貯蓄率のデータを構築した宇南山 大野 (2017a; 2017b) を最新データまで拡張し 推計方法を改善した 国民経済計算や家計調査の結果との比較を通じて 構築されたデータの妥当性の検討をさらに進めた 更新されたデータにおいても 高齢者世帯比率の増加ではなく高齢者世帯の貯蓄率の低下がマクロの貯蓄率低下の原因であるという結果は維持された さらに 年齢階級別 コーホート別の所得と支出の動向から ゼロ金利政策による財産所得の減少と公的年金給付の減少が高齢者の貯蓄率の低下要因であることを明らかにした 賦課方式の年金制度のもとでは年金給付の減少は高齢化の結果であり その意味で高齢者の貯蓄率の低下は高齢化の結果の 1 つである キーワード : 家計貯蓄率, 齢化, 公的年 制度 JEL classification: C82 D12 D91 RIETI ディスカッション ペーパーは 専 論 の形式でまとめられた研究成果を公開し 活発な議論を喚起することを 的としています 論 に述べられている 解は執筆者個 の責任で発表するものであり 所属する組織及び ( 独 ) 経済産業研究所としての 解を すものではありません 1 本稿は 独立行政法人経済産業研究所 (RIETI) におけるプロジェクト 経済主体間の非対称性と経済成長 の成果の一部である 本稿の分析に当たっては 総務省統計局の公表する全国消費実態調査 家計調査 家計消費状況調査の個票を利用した また 本稿の原案に対して 吉川洋教授 ( 立正大学 ) 北尾早霧教授 ( 東京大学 ) 藤原一平教授 ( 慶応大学 ) ならびに経済産業研究所ディスカッション ペーパー検討会の方々から多くの有益なコメントを頂いた ここに記して 感謝の意を表したい

3 *1 (2017a; 2017b) SNA(System of National Accounts: ) (2017a, 2017b) *1 (1993) (1993) (1995; 1996) (1999) (2009) (2017) (2018) 1

4 SNA % % 2011 SNA SNA SNA 2011 SNA % % SNA (2017a) (Horioka, 1991; 1997) (2017b) 2

5 % 3

6 (2017a; 2017b) 2 (2017a 2017b) (2017a 2017b) (2017a, 2017b) 2014 SNA (, 1993;, 1993;, 1995; 1996;, 1999) (, 2009;, 2017) 2008SNA 2011 SNA (, 2018) 4

7 (2017a, 2017b) SNA SNA SNA 3 1 SNA SNA SNA 2005 FISIM 3 (2011) (2009) (2017a, 2017b) (2017a) Appendix A1( ) Appendix A2( ) 5

8 2.2 ( ) (2015) (2009) 2 (2009) (2017) (2018) SNA 6

9 (2011; 2015) (2015) 7

10 (2009) SNA % % % SNA % 5.9% SNA SNA SNA % 5.9%

11 1: SNA 2 SNA 50 9

12 2: SNA SNA 3 SNA 10 SNA 10

13 3: SNA (2005) SNA 11

14 40 SNA 4 A 4 A SNA (2015) SNA SNA 2011 SNA *2 B *3 SNA 30 (2009, 2011) SNA *2 Fujiwara and Ogawa (2017) SNA 5% *3 12

15 SNA 5 (Stephens and Unayama, 2011) 6 13

16 4: SNA SNA 50 7 SNA 1989 SNA 14

17 5: SNA 6: 15

18 7: SNA SNA (2015) (2016) 16

19 3.2 SNA *4 8 25% 15-20% % -10% 20% 40% (2015) *4 (2017) 17

20 8: (2011) 18

21 (2017a, 2017b) 9 (2017a, 2017b) % ( ) ( Alessi et al. 1999, De Nardi et al. 2016) 19

22 (Horioka, 2010;, 2010;, 2017) (2017a; 2017b) (2017b) 9 (2017a, 2017b)

23 9: * *5 Deaton (1985) 21

24 10: %

25 11 A B A % B % 10% A 60 23

26 11: *6 *6 24

27 B % % % B

28 % (2017) C 4 B * D *7 Stephens and Unayama (2012) 26

29 12: 27

30 5 (2017a; 2017b) (2017a; 2017b) B 28

31 2 29

32 (2017a, 2017b) (2017a, 2017b) (2005) ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.141 (1995) (1) 35 30

33 , pp (1996) (2) 37, pp (1993) 12 2, pp (2009) SNA - RIETI Discussion Paper Series 10-J-003 (2011) 1 1, pp.3-28 (2015) 122, pp (2017a) RIETI Discussion Paper 17-J-035. (2017b) 68 3 pp (2018) (2015) 122, pp (2015) , pp.4-24 (2015) 122, pp (2016) PRI Discussion Paper Series No.16A-02 31

34 (1999) SNA, (2009),, (2017) (1993) SNA 99, pp (2017) SNA 2017 (2010) ( 3 ) pp Alessie, R., A. Lusardi, and A. Kapteyn (1999) Saving After Retirement: Evidence from Three Different Surveys, Labour Economics, vol. 6(2), pp De Nardi, M., E. French, and J. B. Jones(2016), Savings After Retirement: A Survey, Annual Review of Economics, vol. 8, pp Deaton, Angus. (1985) Panel Data from Time Series of Cross-Sections, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 30, pp Fujiwara, Hiroyuki and Yasutaka Ogawa (2017) Estimating Compensation of Employees Based on Taxation Data, Japanese Economic Review, (Forthcoming) Available at https: //doi.org/ /jere Horioka, C. Y. (1991) The Determinants of Japan s Saving Rate: The Impact of the Age Structure of the Population and Other Factors, Economic Studies Quarterly (Japanese Economic Review), vol. 42(3), pp Horioka, C. Y. (1997) A Cointegration Analysis of the Impact of the Age Structure of the 32

35 Population on the Household Saving Rate in Japan, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 79(3), pp Horioka, C. Y.(2010), The(Dis)saving Behavior of the Aged in Japan, Japan and the World Economy, vol. 22(3), pp Melvin Stephens Jr. and Takashi Unayama (2011) The Consumption Response to Seasonal Income: Evidence from Japanese Public Pension Benefits, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, vol. 3, pp Melvin Stephens, Jr. and Takashi Unayama (2012) The Impact of Retirement on Household Consumption in Japan, Journal of Japanese and International Economies, vol. 26, pp

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