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1 FDI
2 IMF (2009) IMF (2008) 1 IMF (2009) sudden stop sudden stop 26
3 Gill and Kharas (2007) FDI FDI 27
4 financial stress index (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States.) 26 Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Turkey) 3 IMF (2009), Appendix
5 1997~ ~01 IT 2007~ ~ sudden stop 10 IMF (2009) sudden stop contagion 1997 sudden stop 2 V GDP
6 GDP GDP CIS GDP 30
7 1982 FDI 90 portfolio bond portfolio equity FDI sudden stop FDI 5 sudden stop FDI 1990 GDP GDP FDI FDI GDP
8 FDI FDI FDI FDI CAPM mil$ 240 mil$ EU mil$ 27 mil$ 160 mil$ 9850 mil$ mil$ 70 mil$ 60 mil$ 30 mil$ 20 mil$ 21,000 mil$ 1 32
9 2 FDI FDI 5 mercantilism Aizenman et al. (2011) 33
10 6 sudden stop FDI GDP GDP 35~ Jeanne (2007) 34
11 7 GDP internal finance external finance GDP 1980 GDP financial deepening 9 7 Abiad et al. (2007) Fabrizio et al. (2009) 35
12 Gill and Kaharas (2007) GDP % 150% 50% 37% 71% 18% 40% ~2007 GDP GDP
13 FDI 8 Gill and Kharas (2007, p. 217) 9 IT IMF (2006) 1990 Bayoumi et al. (2010) 37
14 sudden stop 10 flight to quality sudden stop financial disintermediation Prasad (2010) Pula and Peltonen (2009) 38
15 macroprudential policy FCI 14 original sin contagion BIS 13 dynamic inconsistency price taker original sin 1990 Frankel (2010) 14 FCI (Financial Condition Index) 1990 FCI Shinkai and Kohsaka (2010) 39
16 CMI ABMI original sin CMI CMI CMI 15 ABMI ABMI 15 Aizenman et al. (2011) 40
17 16 CMI ABMI EU Hsu and Kohsaka (2010) 41
18 18 bank based market based 19 extrapolative 2000 FDI Aizenman, Joshua, Yothin Jinjarak and Donghyun Park. 2011, "International reserves and swap lines: Substitutes or complements?" International Review of Economics and Finance, Gillis and Kharas (2007), p Levine (1997) Demirgüç-Kunt and Levine (2008) 42
19 Abiad, Abdul, Daniel Leigh, and Ashoka Mody 2007, International Finance and Income Convergence: Europe is Different, IMF Working Paper, WP/07/64, March Bates, Thomas W., Kathleen M. Kahle, and Rene M. Stulz, 2009, Why do US firms hold so much more cash than they used to? Journal of Finance, vol. 64(5). Bayoumi, Tamim Bayoumi, Hui Tong and Shang-Jin Wei, 2010, The Chinese Corporate Savings Puzzle: A Firm-Level Cross-Country Perspective, NBER Working Paper 16432, October Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli and Ross Levine, 2008, Finance, Financial Sector Policies, and Long-Run Growth, World Bank, March Detragiache, Enrica, Thierry Tressel, and Poonam Gupta, 2006, Foreign Banks in Poor Countries: Theory and Evidence, IMF Working Paper 06/18 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Fabrizio, Stefania, Daniel Leigh, and Ashoka Mody, 2009, The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective, IMF Working Paper, WP/09/43, March Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010, MONETARY POLICY IN EMERGING MARKETS: A SURVEY, NBER Working Paper 16125, June Gill, Indermit and Homi Kharas, 2007, An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, World Bank, Chapter 4. Hsu, Hsiufen and Akira Kohsaka, 2010, Common Monetary Policy in East Asia? Counterfactual Experiments of its Implementation, Paper presented at the JSPS EU-Japan Joint Workshop on Spillover Effects and Cycle Effects of Regional Integration: East Asia and EU, Catholic University Leuven, Belgium, January 29-30, IMF, 2005, Awash with Cash: Why Are Corporate Savings So High? World Economic Outlook, Chapter IV, p IMF, 2008, Financial Stress and Economic Downturns, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 4, 43
20 October IMF, 2009, How Linkages Fuel the Fire: The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 4, April Jeanne, Olivier, 2007, International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 1, Brookings Institution. Levine, R., 1997, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda, Journal of Economic Literature, 35: Prasad, Eswar S., 2009, REBALANCING GROWTH IN ASIA, NBER Working Paper 15169, July Pula, Gabor and Tuomas A. Peltonen, 2009, HAS EMERGING ASIA DECOUPLED? AN ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION AND TRADE LINKAGES USING THE ASIAN INTERNATIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE, WORKING PAPER NO 993 / European Central Bank, JANUARY Shinkai, Jun-ichi and Akira Kohsaka, 2010, Financial Linkages and Business Cycles of Japan: An Analysis Using Financial Conditions Index, OSIPP Discussion Paper : DP-2010-E-008, October 14,
21 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April, 2009, Chapter 4, Figure
22 Sudden stop IMF, World Economic Outlook, April, 2009, Chapter 4, Figure
23 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April, 2009, Chapter 4, Figure
24 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April, 2009, Chapter 4, Figure
25 Financial Inflows to EM: East Asia (% of GDP) ODA Bank & other loans FDI Portfolio equity Portfolio bond World Bank, World Development Indicators, CD-ROM,
26 Financial i Inflows to EM: Financial i Inflows to EM: Latin America (% of GDP) Central Europe (% of GDP) ODA Bank & other loans FDI Portfolio equity Portfolio bond ODA Bank & other loans FDI Portfolio equity Portfolio bond World Bank, World Development Indicators, CD-ROM,
27 IMF, World Economic Outlook, October,
28 Saving & Investment: East Asia (% of GDP) Saving & Investment: Central Europe (% of GDP) Gross domestic savings Gross capital formation Gross domestic savings Gross capital formation World Bank, World Development Indicators, CD-ROM,
29 120 East Ai Asia (% of fgdp) Central le Europe (% of GDP) Domestic credit to private sector Market capitalization Domestic credit to private sector Market capitalization World Bank, World Development Indicators, CD-ROM,
30 (mil US$) Investment from: Year-End 2008 Investment in: Total value of Emerging East investment Asia EU15 Japan United States China, P.R. 226, ,792 49,161 5,499 53,269 Hong Kong SAR of China 165,473 22,091 56,900 8,915 61,483 Japan 626,077 16, , ,600 Korea, Republic of 112,278 7,591 39,259 6,799 45,287 Malaysia 25,278 7,173 7, ,673 Philippines 7, , ,279 Singapore 60,188 4,408 20,430 3,074 24,028 Taiwan Province of China 79, , , ,631 41, Thailand 24,211 3,215 8, ,670 United States 1,486,907 54, , ,163 - Emerging East Asia 701, , ,739 27, ,884 Total value of investment 9,848, ,995 4,214, ,678 2,748,428 CPIS = Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Lasst Updated: January
31 2 (mil US$) Investment from: Year-End, 2008 Investment in: Total value of investment Emerging East Asia EU15 Japan United States China, P.R. 23,409 14,885 5, ,633 Hong Kong SAR of China 14,770 4,034 3,685 1,212 3,333 Japan 474,683 28, ,389-41,472 Korea, Republic of 92,007 34,970 23,998 11,262 10,769 Malaysia 24,579 8,571 7,951 2,171 5,263 Philippines 13,224 1,775 5,974 1,388 2,818 Singapore 26,687 4,851 7,483 3,350 6,453 Taiwan Province of China 4,196 1,904 1, Thailand 4,241 1,209 1, United States 4,866,185 94,156 1,435, ,262 - Emerging East Asia 203,113 72,199 57,898 20,364 31,441 Total value of investment 21,023, ,154 10,284,764 1,981,928 1,519,437 CPIS = Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Lasst Updated: January
32 Gill and Kharas (2007). 11
33 GDP Table. Financial Structure: East Asia (Ratio to GDP) Country Year Private Credit Private Bond Public Bond Stock Market Capitalization China Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand World Bank, Financial Development and Structure Dataset, 12
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