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1 C Musgrave 1959

2 FTPL fiscal theory of the price level

3 FTPL FTPL 1 1

4 GDP GDP

5 GDP

6

7

8

9 SNA

10

11 GDP GDP GDP 3 GDP GDP GDP GDP + + GDP HP 7 GDE

12 GDP GDP p.125

13 , , ( ,370 1,680 2,000 7, ,030 2,800 2,360 1, ,400 5,680 3,

14

15 GDP GDP

16 HP

17 HP GDP 4 4 SNA GDP

18 GDP GDP GDP

19 GDP IS LM IS LM BP AD AS

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21 IS LM

22 Lucas 1976

23

24 SP GDP

25 SP SP :1-84: :1-92: NEEDS NEEDS NEEDS :2-96: :1-97: :1-97: :1-89: :1-99:

26 GDP 1 90 VAR VAR Vector Autoregessive Model VAR Ramaswamy and Rendu 2000 Bayoumi GDP 1 1 VAR VAR VAR VAR

27 VAR VMA Ramaswamy and Rendu 2000 Ramaswamy and Rendu VAR 90

28 :3-89:4 1970:3-97:1 4 1 VAR Ramaswamy and Rendu(2000) 1973:1-97:1 VAR 8 3 VAR 2 1 VAR 3 4 GDP Bayoumi (2001) 1981:1-98:1 8 GDP 2 VAR F 89:4 97:1 3 GDP :

29 F :1-89:4 1990:1-99:4 6 AIC SBIC Hodrick-Prscott Band Pass Beverage- Nelson 2003 VAR :1-2001: GDP GDP VAR GDP 0 1 GDP GDP VAR GDP GDP F GDP GDP 2003

30 VAR VAR historical decomposition 1 8 VAR VAR VAR GDP 9 GDP 8 VAR 2 VAR 8 VAR VMA 9 Hodrick-Prescott

31 Ramaswamy and Rendu Bayoumi 2001 Bayoumi VAR VAR

32 IS LM Y 1 Y 2 r Q r U 1 P T 1 Y 1 Y 1 T 2 Y 2 Y 2 T 2 T 2 (1 r) T 1 1 C 2 (1 r)(y 1 C 1 ) Y 2 2

33 T 1 T 2 2 C 2 (1 r){(y 1 T 1 ) C 1 } (Y 2 T 2 ) P

34 Blanchard 1990 Bertola and Drazen 1993Perotti 1999 Blanchard D Barro 1974

35 Bertola and Drazen 1993 Perotti 1999 Giavazzi and Pagano Giavazzi and Pagano 1995 OECD Perotti 1999 OECD Giavazzi, Jappelli and Pagano

36 Perotti FTPL GDP FTPL fiscal theory of the price level Leeper 1991 Sims 1994 Cochrane 1998 Woodford B M 11 MV PY 4 M V P Y

37 V Y B / P FTPL M B P FTPL 4V FTPL FTPL Woodford 1998 Canzoneri et. al Woodford Canzoneri et. al

38 Hagemann 1999 Nood 2000 GDP GDP GDP 1 2 GDP

39 GDP Nood 2000 OECD

40 a b c a c 60 a b

41 a b c a b b c a c b c a c a b

42

43 GDP

44

45

46 GDP

47 GDP

48 GDP 90

49 GDP GDP GDP

50 Barr o, Robert J., (1974) Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.82, pp , (1979) On the Determination of the Public Debt, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.87, pp Bayo umi, Tamim, (2001) The Morning After: Explaining the Slowdown in Japanese Growth in the 1990s, Journal of International Economics, Vol.53, pp Bert ola, Giuseppe and Allan Drazen, (1993) Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity, American Economic Review, Vol.83, pp Blanchard, Olivier, (1990) Comment, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol.5, pp Canz oneri, M.B., R.E. Cumby, and B.T. Diba, (2001) Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency? American Economic Review, Vol.91, pp Coch rane, John H., (1998) A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation, in Ben S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg, eds., NBER Macroeconomic Annual 1998, pp Giav azzi, Francesco and Marco Pagano, (1990) Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol.5, pp , (1995) Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience, NBER Working Paper, No Giav azzi, Francesco, Tullio Jappelli and Marco Pagano, (2000) Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries, European Economic Review, Vol.44, pp Hage mann, R., (1999) The Structural Budget Balance the IMF's Methodology, IMF Working Paper, No.99/95. Leep er, Eric M., (1991) Equilibria under Active and Passive Monetary and Fiscal Policies, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.27, pp Luca s, Robert E., Jr., (1976) Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique, in Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer, eds., The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, North-Holland, pp

51 Musg rave, R. A.,(1959) The Theory of Public Finace, McGraw-Hill. Van de Noord,Paul, (2000) The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond, OECD ECO Working Papers, No.230. Pero tti, Roberto, (1999) Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.114, pp Rama swamy, Ramana and Christel Rendu, (2000) Japan's Stagnant Nineties:A Vector Autoregression Retrospective, IMF Staff Papers, Vol.47, pp Sims, C., (1994) A Simple Model for Study of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Economic Theory, Vol.4, pp Wood ford, Michael, (2001) Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.33, pp , (1998) Comment, in Ben S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg, eds., NBER Macroeconomic Annual 1998, pp pp FTPL Fiscal Theory of Price Level ESRI Discussion Paper Series, No.35, pp Monetary View Fiscal View pp No

52 JCER PAPER, No pp pp Working Paper Series, ESRI Discussion Paper Series, No JCER PAPER, No pp

53 The Doshisha University Economic Review Vol.57 No.3 Abstract Shin-ichi KITASAKA, Fiscal Policy in Japan : A Survey In this paper the recent movement of the fiscal policy adopted as a macro stabilization policy in Japan is reviewed, with its theoretical and empirical researches arranged. This study will show that in the first half of the 1990's the fiscal policy employed for the stabilization produced due effects, but that a large amount of public financing used in the second half of the '90's failed in raising GDP.

日本における財政政策のインパクトー1990年代のイベント・スタディー

日本における財政政策のインパクトー1990年代のイベント・スタディー FTPL FTPL sustainability FTPL fiscal theory of the price level FTPL Fukuda and Teruyama Giavazzi and Pagan Giavazzi and Pagano Alesina and PerottiSutherlandPerottiGiavazzi, Jappelli and Pagano FTPL LeeperSimsWoodford

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