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2 14 No.39, b 2009a Web Web Q&A a b

3 (a) 1(b) 1(c) 1(d) 1) b a (a) 3(b) (c)(d) 2.2 (2009)

4 16 No.39, (a) H16 H17 H18 H19 H17 H18 H19 H20 H18 H19 H20 H21 (b) H16 H17 H18 H18 H19 H20 H19 H20 H21 (c) H16 H17 H18 H19 H17 H18 H19 H20 H18 H19 H20 H21 (d) H16 H17 H18 H18 H19 H20 H19 H20 H21 2 H17 H18 H19 H20 H16 H16 H17 H16 H17 H18 H18 H19 (a) 2,350 3,416 2,021 3,517 2,156 3,627 2,147 (b) 2,176 2,563 1, ,576 1, ,542 1, (%) E N E M E S E

5 17 3 (a) H18 H19 H20 H21 H17 H1718 H17 H18 H19 H17 H18 H19 H20 2,091 2, , ,947 1,009 1, (%) (b) H19 H20 H21 H18 H18 H19 H18 H19 H20 1,965 1,180 2, ,337 2, (%) H15 H16 H17 H18 N A 28,325 7,174 21,298 17,791 16,625 M A S A E H16 H17 H18 H19 H17 H18 H19 H20 n E N E M E S E n E M A E M E S A E S E ,350 2,021 2,156 2,147 H18 H19 H20 n E N E ,279 M E S E n E M A E M E S A E S E ,416 3,517 3,627

6 18 No.39, n E N E M E S E 4 n E 4 N A M A S A web 2007b M A E, S A E (1) (2) M E,S E 16 M A E,S A E M A E = M E M A S A (1) S A E = S E S A (2) M E M A S E S A S A S E S A E 16 1 N(M A E, SA 2 E ) 4 M A E S A E 1(a) 1(b) M A E M A M A 18 M A 16 M A (2009) (a)

7 19 H19 H18 H17 H16 (a) H18 H17 H16 (b) 1 N(0, 1 2 ) (2008) x 0 1 (3) g(x) β g(x) = 1 1+exp ( βx) (3) N(m, 1 2 ) G(m)

8 20 No.39, 2010 m m (2007) G(m) g(x) (4) N(m, 1 2 ) f(x) f(x m) = 1 ) (x m)2 exp ( (4) 2π 2 (5) G(m) =(g f) (m) ) (x m)2 = 1 exp ( 2 dx (5) 2π 1+exp( βx) (5) β m (6) M m = M T (6) S (6) T S T 0.5 S 3.2 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (i)(v) (5) (6) j M (o) j G (o) j j M (o) j j G (o) j (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (iii) (v)

9 21 5 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) H16 H17 H18 H19 H16 H18 H19 H20 H21 H S β 0.01 <= β 0.01 <= β 0.01 <= β 0.01 <= β 0.01 <= β T 50.0 <T < <T < <T < <T < <T { 10, 10} { 10, 10} { 10, 10} { 10, 10} { 10, 10} β T Web (5) (6) S 2.2 E n E S 1 β T (i)(v) Mathematica 7.0 FindFit M (o) j, G (o) j 2 β T 5 FindFit (5) [, ] [ 10, 10] [ 8, 8] [ 15, 15] m 3 3 G(m) (5) 2 j m (o) j G (o) j m (o) j, G (o) j 2(a)(d) (i)(iv) 2(e) (v) m (o) j M (o) j m (o) j (7) = M (o) j S T (7) 2(a)(e) M 0.5 T S 2(a)(e) M = T m =0 G(m) 0.5 T (i)(v) T

10 22 No.39, 2010 G(m) (a) H16 H18 β =1.86, T =76.5 m G(m) (b) H17 H19 β =0.48, T =69.4 m G(m) (c) H18 H20 β =0.39, T =68.4 m G(m) (d) H19 H21 β =1.32, T =73.3 m G(m) (e) H16 H19 β =2.25, T =84.6 m 2 m G(m) (a)(d) (i)(iv) (e) (v) (8) T M A S A T A 6 (i)(v) T T A T A = T M A S A (8)

11 23 6 T (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) H16 H17 H18 H19 H16 H18 H19 H20 H21 H19 β T N(0, 1 2 ) T (T A ) N(0, 1 2 ) (M A E ) m (9) m A (i)(v) m A = T A + m S (9) S A 3 m A G(m A ) 3(a)(d) (i)(iv) 3(e) (v) 3.4 β T A =0.948 M A E = β 0.5 T A =1.241 M A E =0.674 T A M A E β 0.5 T A =0.594 M A E = β 0.5 T A =1.521 M A E =0.906

12 24 No.39, 2010 G(m_a) G(m_a) m_a (a) H16 H18 β =1.86, T A =0.948 m_a (b) H17 H19 β =0.48, T A =1.241 G(m_a) G(m_a) m_a (c) H18 H20 β =0.39, T A =0.921 m_a (d) H19 H21 β =1.32, T A =0.594 G(m_a) 0.5 (e) H16 H19 β =2.25, T A = m A G(m A ) (a)(d) (i)(iv) (e) (v) M A E S A E

13 25 β 2(b)(c) 3(b)(c) 4 M A E S A E 3.2 (ii)(iv) 3.2 (iv) β 1(a) 19 β 20 β 0.5 T T A 4

14 26 No.39, T T A 9 (i)(v) 1) 1(c) (d) 3

15 27 (2009a), , menu/shingi/ chukyo/chukyo4/012/siryo/attach/ htm. (2009b), , 6 8, menu/ shingi/toushin/ icsfiles/afieldfile/2009/04/ 20/ pdf.,, school/ content0016.html., Q A, (2006), 18, (2007a), 19, (2007b), 17, (2008), 20, (2009), 21, (2007), 18, menu/houdou/19/ 04/ htm#a01. (2008), 19, menu/houdou/20/ 05/ /001.pdf. (2009), 20,,. (2001), III, , report/ikensyo/iken-3.html. (2007),,, 3(1), (2008),,, 4(1), (2009),,, 38, URL

16 28 No.39, 2010 Introduction of Passing-ratio-function into Prediction Model for Ratio of Students Passing New National Bar Examination for Law Schools SHIINA Kumiko KOMAKI Ken-ichiro SAKURAI Katsumi SUGISAWA Taketoshi Abstract The National Admission Test for Law Schools (NATLaS) is designed to evaluate applicants abilities to judge, think, analyze and express themselves, which are demanded as preconditions for study at law schools. The new National Bar Examination also demands these abilities. A prediction model for the ratio of students passing the Bar Exam for each law school from the mean of the NATLaS score for enrolled students was constructed. The predictive validity of the NATLaS was examined on the basis of the estimated values of the parameters of the model. One of the parameters was used to convert the raw NATLaS score into a value on the scale of the model. The parameter corresponds to the NATLaS score, which has a ratio 0.5 for students passing the Bar Exam. The passingratio-function was newly introduced into the model. In other words, the ratio of students passing the Bar Exam was assumed to increase continuously as a logistic function of the NATLaS score. The logistic function has a parameter, which indicates the sharpness of the increase. The values of the parameters for groups of students of each enrollment year were estimated by the method of least squares based on observed values of the mean score of the NATLaS of each law school and the ratio of passing the Bar Exam. Parameters for the three-year course were estimated only for a student group in the first year of enrollment, to which the prediction model could be applied. The estimated values of the sharpness parameter were positive for all enrollment years. It corresponds to that the students with higher NATLaS scores indicate a higher ratio of success at the Bar Exam. As for the other parameter, the estimated value for the students on the three-year course was higher than that for those on the two-year course. Thus, passing the Bar Exam was more difficult for students on a three-year course than for those on the two-year course. The tendency of the two parameters suggests predictive validity of the NATLaS. Key words: National Admission Test for Law Schools, New National Bar Examination, predictive validity Department of Test Analysis and Evaluation, Research Division, The National Center for University Entrance Examinations Councilor, The National Center for University Entrance Examinations Faculty of Education, Niigata University (Previous Position: Department of Test Analysis and Evaluation, Research Division, The National Center for University Entrance Examinations)

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