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1 IMES DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES Discussion Paper No. 99-J-17 INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES BANK OF JAPAN

2

3 IMES Discussion Paper Series 99-J * JEL classification E52 E58 *

4

5 GDP 1

6 110 CPI GDP CPI 1929/1Q 37/4Q GDP 1929/1Q 37/4Q /1 91/3 92/1 92/3 93/1 93/3 94/1 94/3 95/1 95/3 96/1 96/3 97/1 97/3 98/1 98/3 99/1 1991/1Q CPI GDP 1929/1Q 37/4Q 91/1Q 29/1Q 100 U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics N.S. Balke and R.J. Gordon, Historical Data, in R.J. Gordon ed., The American Business Cycle The University of Chicago Press:

7 12 10 Moody's Baa 1929/1Q 37/4Q O/N 8 6 CP /1Q 37/4Q /1Q 37/4Q CP /1 91/3 92/1 92/3 93/1 93/3 94/1 94/3 95/1 95/3 96/1 96/3 97/1 97/3 98/1 98/3 99/1 1991/1Q 1929/1Q 37/4Q N.S. Balke and R.J. Gordon, Historical Data, in R.J. Gordon ed., The American Business Cycle The University of Chicago Press:

8 M2+CD M2 1929/1Q37/4Q /1 91/3 92/1 92/3 93/1 93/3 94/1 94/3 95/1 95/3 96/1 96/3 97/1 97/3 98/1 98/3 99/1 99/3 1991/1Q M 2 +CD 1929/1Q 37/4Q M 2 91/1Q 29/1Q 100 N.S. Balke and R.J. Gordon, Historical Data, in R.J. Gordon ed., The American Business Cycle (The University of Chicago Press : 1986) 4

9 5

10 6

11 GDP GDP /1 71/3 73/1 74/3 76/1 77/3 79/1 80/3 82/1 83/3 85/1 86/3 88/1 89/3 91/1 92/3 94/1 95/3 97/1 98/3 7

12 k /1 71/3 73/1 74/3 76/1 77/3 79/1 80/3 82/1 83/3 85/1 86/3 88/1 89/3 91/1 92/3 94/1 95/3 97/1 98/3 8

13 9

14 M 2 CD 70 S 15.2% 16.4% N.A. 80 S 7.9% 9.1% 9.9% 90 S 5.5% 3.6% 4.3% 9.5% 9.8% 7.1% 10

15 GDP 11

16

17 13

18 14

19 X 15

20 16

21 17

22 M CD M 2 +CD M2+CD 18

23 TB /1 92/7 93/1 93/7 94/1 94/7 95/1 95/7 96/1 96/7 97/1 97/7 98/1 98/7 99/1 19

24 20

25 21

26 Eichengreen, B. and Garber, P. M., Before the Accord: U S Monetary-Financial Policy , Deutsche Bank Global Markets, pp.59-83, April,1999. Krugman 22

27 23

28 24

29 Financial Times, Addressing the US bubble, April.22,

30 P. Stella, Do Central Bank Need Capital? IMF Working Paper, July,

31 27

32 McCallum, B.T., Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan and Reply to Comments by Kunio Okina, Monetary and Economic Studies, vol. 11, pp and pp , Okina, K., Comments on Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan, Monetary and Economic Studies, vol. 11, pp , Goodhart, C.A.E., What should Central Banks Do? What should be Their Macroeconomic Objectives and Operations?, The Economic Journal, 104, pp , November,

33

34 30

35 31

36 M=kH* H*M k 32

37 CP 33

38 15 Allan Meltzer, The Transmission Process, Prepared for The Monetary Transmission Process: Recent Development and Lessons for Europe, Bundesbank, Frankfurt,March25-27,

39

40 1 36

41 37

42 38

43 39

第一次大戦後の日本における国債流通市場の制度改革

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