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しほこちゅうか
5 years ago
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1 Paper A Forecast of World Primary Energy Ichizo Aoki Greenwood Office iaoki@gakushikai.jp Abstract Up to industrial revolution, we had used renewable energy such as wood for our daily use. Start of fossil fuel utilization bought us comfortable life style and rapid growth of our population, but with adverse effect of climate change. It seems that we have used almost half of recoverable oil reserves and a part of natural gas. Regardless of climate change, it is evident that we have to come back to renewable energy again in the next century. In making forecast author has investigated possible alternative energy such as nuclear and renewable energy including biological fuel, hydraulics, wind, solar cell and Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). In utilizing fossil fuel, carbon capture and sequestration is considered as important option for avoiding climate change. 1

3 1972 MIT [1] 1992 [2] GDP GDP % GDP 0.6% fraction f (f/(1-f)) [3] 3

4 ,

5 1838 K N K F = N/K S f = df/dt = rf(1-f) 5

6 f/(1-f) 2000 IEA; International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2,000 K H (R/P) BP (2005) IAEA BP Zcal=zetta cal=1021cal

7 H [4] /kwh /kwh 1.8 IEA 2000 f= f= m3/y 6.5 m3/y 7

8 [5] IEA 2000 f f /1.8 = 1.5 f = 0.21 x 1.5 = % 1,500 o C LNG /kwh 11.5 /kwh /kwh CCS; Carbon Capture and Sequestration -2 CCS /kwh DME CCS CCS % 23% 46% 38% fi=1 8

9 % IAEA; International Atomic Energy Agency [6] /kwh /kwh /kwh 15.5 /kwh 1, IEA 2000 f OECD ,

10 f CSP; Concentrated Solar Power ( ) 1.37kW/m 2 127,400,000km W 1 10,362 kwh 6,685km % 38 km 2 1.8% 66% 100% 1% 25% 14% IEA 2000 f=0.1 1% 5-15% 10

11 IEA 2000 f=0.023 f % 10.2 /kwh % 0.44% /kwh LNG 9.3 /kwh 14% 1.8% / /W 7% 12% % 1 /W - - -CIGS

12 /kwh ,000MW 412 kwh/y 0.067% 0.026% ,800 kwh 2.8% 1.1% ,300 kwh 5.2% 2% Concentrating Solar Thermal Power, CSP 2030 f= f=0.007 CSP NEDO CSP CSP CSP /kwh 6 16 /kwh

13 $/bbl 50$/t LNG 9.9$/MMbtu 18$/lbU -2 80% /kwh 23 /kwh 0.38 /kwh 11.4 /kwh 3.4 /kwh -2 13

14 11.3 /kwh CSP CCS -3 DME Market Price Heating value Fuel cost per heating value Power cycle Eff. Cost per power Gasoline hybrid 164,000yen/ton (120yen/l ) CNG hybrid - kcal/g yen/kwh % yen/kwh 40,000yen/ton CIF =14.6 LPG hybrid yen/ton DME diesel hybrid 240$/ton CIF =13.9 Methanol hybrid 200$/ton CIF =16 Ammonia hybrid 200$/ton CIF =16.4 Electric vehicle - - battery: 35 to 59 grid power 23-3 battery 85, motor to 59+23/0.83=62 to 86 14

15 1970 f f = / , f= f= f= CSP IEA 3 15

16 2-5 f index -6 BP BP IAEA 2 BP CSS 16

17 BP 1.5 BP 2, BP IAEA ,

18 BP BP 2 BP 3 BP 1.5 IAEA ,

19 (1) (2) (3) (4)

20 IEA NEDO ECOH LNG ULVAC Seven Mile Beach File [1] Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadowa, Jorgen Randers, William W. Behrens. The Limits to Growth, A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind, (1972) [2] [3] Nebojsa Nakicenovic "Energy Strategies for Mitigating Global Change IIASA Jan. (1992) [4] Colin Cambell, Jean Laherrère End of Cheap Oil, Scientific American March 1 st., (1998) [5]Mohr, SH and Evans, GM, Model Proposed for World Conventional, Unconventional Gas, Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 105, no. 47, 17 December (2007), p. 46 [6] Klaus Traub, Atomenergie unverantwortliche Bedrohung, marginale Potenziale, 20

【2050 低炭素ナビ】利用ガイド

【2050 低炭素ナビ】利用ガイド A User s Guide 1 2 3 4 01 02 03 04 05 06 01 02 03 06 05 04 5 6 7 8 9 1,200 1,200 Generation in Demand-side Nuclear 1,000 1,000 Hydropower Ocean Power 800 800 Geothermal Wind TWh/yr 600 400 TWh/yr 600 400