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ゆたかひろき
5 years ago
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1 Dec 2, (1) (2) Summary (1)12 FOMC (2) (3)212 FOMC 3. (1)112 (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 1 (7) % % % ( ) ( )

2 vs % 37 26% Gingrich 35 Romney Paul 3 25 Perry

3 FOMC 1 FOMC12 FOMC Fed WSJ 1 (2) FF.25%213 2 MBSMBSThe Maturity Extension Program 11 2 FOMC Fed 1 Federal Reserve Prepares to Make Itself Perfectly Clear December 5, 211, WSJ FF likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid FOMC 11 2 FOMC

4 11 12 [E]conomic growth strengthened somewhat in the third [T]he economy has been expanding moderately, quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year. growth. Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent months. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, but investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and the year as prices of energy and some commodities longer-term inflation expectations have remained have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation stable. expectations have remained stable. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the consistent with the Committee s dual mandate. effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further.

5 FOMC 1 12 Minutes 212 穿 (3) FOMC 1 Fed Fed Fed FOMC 4 1 NYFOMC FOMC FOMC MBS QE3 MBS FOMC QE3 FOMC FOMC New York Fed to Post Primary Dealer Survey Questions December 2, 211, N.Y. Fed FOMC

6 1 NY4 2 FOMC FOMC FOMC NY 2 Fed 5 NY FOMC 11 FOMC 4 FOMCFOMC QE3 MBS MBS NY NY Economic Outlook, October 211 October 17, 211, Jeffrey M. Lacker 8 Understanding the Intervenist Impulse of the Modern Central Bank November 16, 211, Jeffrey M. Lacker

7 MBS NY FOMC FOMC GDP 2.6% (2) % 2.7% % % % 1.8% ,,Pt () (1.6) (.2) (.) (.) (.5) (.1) (.2) (.3) (Q4) () (Q4/Q4)

8 % % NFP : Non-Farm Payroll 11 NFP 遡 Verizon U.S. Department of Labor U.S. Department of Labor Verizon ()U.S. Department of Labor 11 BLS The increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45, telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August. 8 9

9 1 9.% %NFP % % 8.9% %.4%Pt.1%Pt.3%Pt Holiday Sales Shoppers Trak 6.6%21.3%NRF 16.4%21 9.2% IBM Benchmark 33.% % U.S. Department of Labor 11.2%.6% 遡 9 1.1% 1.3% 1.5%.6% U.S. Department of Commerce

10 5.7% %79 4.7% 遡 % 11.6% 遡 11 GDP % % % 15 NRF % % 12 3.% NRF % % U.S. Department of Labor U.S. Department of Commerce, NRF %46 4.2% Department of Commerce, NAR NRF 1112

11 %79.5% 14.2% % % Department of Commerce 12.3% % % %Pt ISM NY ISM NY NY CEIC

12 % 1 1.2%9 1.5% % 1.3%9.1% GDP 1 EU 5.1% 9.6%9 3.3% 1 3.7% NIEs 9 12.%1 11.4% %3.% 3.1%2.8% 11 CPI.2%1.8% 2 CPI.17%1.14% %1.11%1.6%1 2.% 2 2.4%1 3.1% CPI CPI -2 CPI

13 .4%11.3%.4%.6%.1%.1%.2%.2%.5%.4% CPI CPI % 1 3.5%9 3.9% 2 2.2%1 2.1% CPI 1 1.4%11 1.% CPI 2.3%1.1%CPI CPI2.5%2.3% CPI 1.9%2.% CPI 2.5%CPI 2.2% % 12 3 BEI 1 2.%2 2.1% CPI CPI CPI 鍵 CPI CPI CPI CPI Year 5 Year

14 Q4-1 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q Q4-1 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov

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Oct 25, 2013 1. (1) (2) (3) (4) 2. 3. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)2013 4. (1) FRB (2) 9 FOMC (3) Tapering (03-3497-3675) miwa-y @itochu.co.jp (03-3497-6284) maruyama-yo @itochu.co.jp Summary 10 1 17 2 10