橡99.表紙・裏表紙.doc
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- さいぞう ふくだ
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1 JBICI Research Paper No.18
2 Research Paper
3 i
4 i ii iv viii xi ii
5 iii
6 iv
7 v
8 vi
9 vii
10 ADB ASEAN BOT CCGT CEEP CEPC Cigre CLDLO DSM DSS EAC EdC EdL EdP EGAT EGCO EPDC EREPC ERLDLC ERLDLO EUE EVN FIRR FFC F/S FTC GDP GMS GNP GT HPP HVDC IDE-JETRO IE IMF Asian Development Bank Association of South East Asian Nations Build, Operate and Transfer Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Committee for Energy and Electric Power Central Electric Power Council Conseil International des Grands Réseaux Électriques (in French) International Council on Large Electric Systems (in English) Central Load Dispatching Liaison Office Demand Side Management Daily Start & Stop Electricity Authority of Cambodia Electricite du Cambodge Electricite du Laos Electricite de Province Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand Electricity Generating Public Company Limited Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. Eastern Regional Electric Power Council Eastern Regional Load Dispatching Liaison Committee Eastern Regional Load Dispatching Liaison Office Expected Undelivered Energy Electricity of Vietnam Financial Internal Rate of Return Flat Frequency Control Feasibility Study Flat Tie line Control Gross Domestic Product Greater Mekong Subregion Gross National Product Gas Turbine Hydro Power Plant High Voltage Direct Current Institute of Developing Economies - Japan External Trade Organization Institute of Energy International Monetary Fund viii
11 IPP Independent Power Producer JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JETRO Japan External Trade Organization JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JV Joint Venture LLDC Least Less Developed Countries LNCE Lao National Committee for Energy LOLE Loss-of-Load Expectation LOLP Loss-of-Load Probability MEA Metropolitan Electricity Authority MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance (Cambodia) MIME Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy (Cambodia) MIH Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts (Laos) MOI Ministry of Industry (Vietnam) MOU Minute of Understanding MP Master Plan MUS$ Million US Dollars NEDO New Energy and industrial technology Development Organization NEPO National Energy Policy Office NLDC Northern Load Dispatching Center O&M Operation & Maintenance PEA Provincial Electricity Authority PDPAT Power Development Planning Assist Tool PPA Power Purchase Agreement PPSs Power Producer and Suppliers PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility PT&D Power Transmission & Distribution Project RETICS Reliability Evaluation Tool for Inter-Connected System SADEP Special Assistance for Development Policy and Projects SAPROF Special Assistance for Project Formation SCADA system Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition system SPP Small Power Plant SPREP Southern Provincial Rural Electrification Project SCGT Single Cycle Gas Turbine ST Steam Turbine TA Technical Assistance TBC Tie line load frequency Bias Control TCF Tera Cubic Feet TEPCO Tokyo Electric Power Company TLFS Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee ix
12 TNB TPP WASP WB Tenaga National Berhad Thermal Power Plant Wien Automatic System Planning Package World Bank x
13 xi
14 ( ) 1
15 10% 6% 9% Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Hydro Gas + Oil Coal Other 150 MW 172 MW 14,918 MW 4,477 MW 694 MW 612 MW 38,519 MW 17,847 MW 1,100 MW 790 MW 46,900 MW 25,800 MW 26% 31% 43% 100% 25% 19% 56% 8% 13% 37% 42% 1 2 2
16 Base Case RETICS PDPAT IPP Base Laos 1 Laos 2 Laos Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam L L L V V T T T V C C C Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia 3 Laos 4 Laos 5 Laos Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam T L V L L T V T V C C C Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia 6 Laos 7 Laos 8 Laos Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam T L L L V T V T V C C C Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia 9 Laos 10 Laos Thailand Vietnam Thailand Vietnam L L V V T T C C Cambodia Cambodia 3 3
17 Case MW MW MW Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case % Case % Unit: MUS$/yr Case MW O&M Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case
18 Case Case 2 N Case 5 Case 7 Case
19 2 Laos Thailand Vietnam L V T C Cambodia 7 Laos Thailand Vietnam L V T C Cambodia 5 Laos Thailand Vietnam L T V C Cambodia 10 Laos Thailand Vietnam L V T C Cambodia BOT O&M FIRR A A B P kwh B a / kwh < b / kwh a ( /kwh) b ( /kwh) A P kwh a /kwh B P kwh b /kwh P kwh b /kwh P kwh a /kwh P b a A B 6
20 2 Case /kwh 1.5/kWh FIRR 6% FIRR 15% Case Case 2 / kwh Laos Thailand Vietnam L V T C Cambodia % 4.78% 2.60% % 5.30% 3.19% % 0.43% -2.41% % -0.10% -3.03% 3 1/50 7
21 8 1 O&M LOLE Loss-of-Load Expectation 24hr LOLE
22 3 4 Case JBIC SAPROF JICA 2 9
23 3 3 1 Case % % 3 10
24 Case % % % % 21.0 MUS$
25
26 ( ) ( )
27 GDP 2-1 1, ,147 7,768 /km GDP , GDP / , GNP / MW ,918 4,477 GWh/ ,780 26,000 % % GW TCF
28 GDP GDP GDP GDP GNP a b , LLDC GDP 1, GDP GDP a
29 b Kip 1 8, IMF GNP GNP 5 2 GDP 1, GDP 2, a 584 IC b IC
30 1 2 GDP IMF 3 GNP IMF a 143 b Dong 1 14, ,400 3,600mm GW 1995 Asian Development Bank: ADB 8.6GW Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy: MIME 10GW
31 2 East West Center 5, , , % GW 18GW 30 2% 23 Memorandum of Understanding 2 3 P.S
32 3 1, % 3% GW ,900MW 3,900MW 2,900MW 1,000MW 11GW Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand: EGAT 4 EGAT. 2000b. 19
33 2.6GW 5.9GW ADB 3,000 kwh/ 1,810 kwh/ 890 kwh/ 300 kwh/ 820 kwh/ 15.6GW Hoa Bihn 240MW 8 2,850MW / 3 Lan Tay 420 m 3 Lan Do 140 m 3 Bach Ho 280 m 3 Dai Hung Rong 600 m 3 1,440 m Cam Pha 38.5 Hon Gay 13.7 Uong Bi MIME MIME Ministry of Economy and Finance: MEF Electricite du Cambodge: EdC
34 Electricity Authority of Cambodia: EAC MIME MIME EAC Power Purchase Agreement PPA MIME EdC EdC Phnom Penh Siem Reap Sihanoukvilie Pong Cham Takeo Battambang 6 MIME Electricite de Province: EdP MIME EdP EdC MIME EAC EdC 2 60% % 71.1MW GWh 62 MW GWh EdC MIME
35 MW MW GWh Power Transmission Master Plan & Rural Electrification Strategy, June 1998, World Bank GWh 2007 GWh MW GDP 5 22 / GDP 6 16 / GDP 4 27 / /kwh EdC 16 /kwh 8 EdC 25 30MW
36 600 1kWh 1US$/ $ EdC GDP % 62% MW % GWh % 9 MIME
37 MW YEAR GWh YEAR 2-3 MW 2-4 GWh 3 1 EdC EdP 129MW MW Phnom Penh IPP IPP IPP 15.0 IPP C EdC C EdC C EdC C EdC Siem Reap 4.0 EdC Kampong Cham 2.0 IPP Takeo 0.9 EdC Sihanoukville 10.0 EdC EdC Annual Report, 2000, EdC EdC
38 Transmission Master Plan & Rural Electrification Strategy 12 MIME EdC JICA MIME MIME Cambodia Power Sector Strategy MP MW 2-3 EdC 5 425MW Independent Power Producer: IPP 4 330MW MP 2 3 IPP F/S 2-3 MW Phnom Penh IPP-2 CCGT Kirirom Hydro CITEC BOT Sihanoukville IPP-3 SCGT F/S Sihanoukville IPP-4 CCGT F/S Kamchay Hydro F/S Battambang 1&2 Hydro Stung Atay Hydro Sihanoukville IPP-5 SCGT Middle Stung Russei Chrum Hydro EdC 425 IPP 330 EdC Annual Report, 2000, EdC 12 HECEC 25
39 4 1 EdC 15.5 /kwh MIME 1 50kWh 43% 5 40% 13 Energy Security ADB Greater Mekong Subregion GMS Energy Security 2 PEA kV 1 5.6MW 3 a MW MW PPA kV 120km 130km 200MW 410mm2 2 2 b 3 Banteay Meanchey Siem Reap Battambang PPA 115kV 22kV 20 30MW Electricity Generating Public Company Limited EGCO BOT Build-Operate-Transfer EGCO EdC 13 15% 26
40 5 1 15kV 6.3kV 4.4kV 3 380/220V 15kV 9 22kV 380/220V 2 22 V 380/220V 2 2 IPP Phnom Penh Battambang Pursat 2016 Phnom Penh - Pursat Phnom Penh Phnom Penh Phnom Penh Power Rehabilitation Project 2002 Thailand - Banteay Meanchey - Battambang 115kV 2004 Vietnam - Takeo - Phnom Penh 220kV 14 EGAT EGCO Rural Electrification and Transmission Project EdC % 15 % EdC Annual Report, 2000, EdC 2-5 EdC kV 27
41 6 C5 10.0MW C6 18.6MW 50Hz kV 15kV 220V 10% % % % % ADB Banlung Kampong Spue Kampot Prey Veng Serey Sophon Stung Trey Svay Rieng Takeo 8 Provincial Power Supply 1 Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts: MIH Electricite du Laos: EdL MIH BOT MIH EdL Lao National Committee for Energy LNCE Committee for and Electric Power: CEEP % ADB % MW EdL
42 MW ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, GWh Power Development Plan up to 2020, July 2001, EdL GWh MW GWh EdL 2-7 EdL % % % % % EdL 17 EdL
43 3 GDP GDP GDP 18 ADB Power Sector Strategy Study MWh MW / 40kWh 256, ,000 2,100GWh , GWh 2,280GWh % 43% 30
44 MW % GWh % MW YEAR GW YEAR 2-8 MW 2-9 GWh MW MW 98% MW 2% 2-4 BOT IPP 99% ,937MW EdL 6 295MW IPP 14 5,642MW IPP Nam Theun IPP Royalty IPP 20 60% Nam Theun2 25% ADB 20 Nam Theun 2 TA IMF PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility 400 US$ 3 31
45 2-4 MW Theun Hinboun BOT 1998 Nam Ngum EdL 1971 Houay Ho BOT 1999 Nam Leuk 60.0 EdL 2000 Xeset EdL 1991 Selabam 5.0 EdL 1969 Nam Phao Nam Ko Nam Dong 1.0 EdL 1970 MicroP/S MW 9, , , , , , , , , IPP EdL EdL Nam Ngum
46 GWh 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Power Sector Strategy Study, 2001, ADB % % Nam Mang % kV 3 Nam Ngum Nam Leuk 210.0MW IPP Theun Hinboun Houay Ho IPP 50% 24 EGAT EdL PPA Baht 50% 1US$ = 28Baht 50% 1.22Baht/kWh 1.14Baht/kWh 0.5 /kwh kwh
47 2 IPP ,000MW ,500 2,000MW MOU MOU kV IPP Theun Hinboun Houay Ho 230kV EGAT 115kV PEA 22kV EVN 35kV 2 1 ADB Northern Area Rural Power Distribution Project former Northern Area Rural and Small Towns 2 Southern Provinces Rural Electrification Project JICA Hz 1% 115kV 5% Phone Tong 26 Phone Tong Nam Ngum Nam Ngum IPP 25 EdL
48 % % 27 ADB 2-12 % Power Sector Strategy Study, 2001, ADB EGAT EGCO IPP 2000 IPP Small Power Producer: SPP Metropolitan Electricity Authority: MEA 2 Provincial Electricity Authority: PEA MEA National Energy Policy Office: NEPO EGAT MEA PEA 27 35
49 NEPO Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee: TLFS % 6 7% MW 300, , , , ,000 50, ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, GWh MW EGAT 0 GWh 2-13 MW ,636GWh EGAT 2-14 GDP End User Method GWh MW PEA MEA 36
50 MW MW % GWh % % % % MW YEAR GWh YEAR 2-15 MW 2-16 GWh 28 NEPO 37
51 EGAT 22,269.0MW 76.5% EGAT 23.5% EGAT EGAT MW 7, , , ,039.6 EGAT EGCO REGCO: Rayong Electricity Generating Co., Ltd. 1,232.0 KEGCO: Khanom Electricity Generating Co., Ltd IPT: Independent Power Thailand Co., Ltd TECO: Tri Energy Co., Ltd SPPs: Small Power Producers 1,433.4 DEDP: Department of Energy Devfelopment and Promotion 0.0 Theun-Hinboun Houay Ho , , EGAT Annual Report 2000, 2000, EGAT 2 30 LOLP Loss-of-Load Probability 24h/ 25% 70% Take or Pay Power Development Plan % % 25% 15 24% 29 EGAT. 2000a. 30 NEPO EGAT 38
52 MW 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ( Power Development Plan 99-02, May 2000, EGAT EGAT MEA PEA EGAT NEPO 13% 2 26% 3 33% 2 IPP 2 340MW EGAT 2 PEA Bokeo Xaignabouly Khammuane 132/115kV Tenaga National Berhad: TNB EGAT 80MW EGAT TNB 50MW 31 NEPO EGAT 39
53 32 300MW 3 MOU : ,000MW Nam Theun2 : ,500MW : ,000MW 500kV 5 230kV 500kV 230kV 110kV 115kV 2 IPP N % Power Development Plan 99-02, May 2000, EGAT HVDC 300MW 120km
54 6 33 EGAT 5% 2% 8% 50Hz 0.1Hz 12:00 EGAT IPP 16: % 2-19 % Power Development Plan 99-02, May 2000, EGAT Ministry of Industry: MOI Electricity of Vietnam: EVN EVN Institute of Energy: IE % IE 10% NEPO EGAT 41
55 MW 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, MW) GWh) THE MASTER PLAN ON ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM, 2001, EVN GWh 5,500MW MW EVN
56 GWh 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, THE MASTER PLAN ON ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM, 2001, EVN 2-22 EVN GDP MW GWh % GDP % GDP
57 DSM Demand Side Management GDP 1.89 GDP DSM MW % GWh % % % % 44
58 MW 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, YEAR GWh 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, YEAR 2-23 MW 2-24 GWh 3 1 EVN 5,679MW IPP 51% 42% IPP 7% MW HYDROPOWER PLANTS 2,913 COAL-FIRED TPP 645 OIL-FIRED TPP 198 GAS TURBINE TPP 1,152 DIESEL PP 397 IPP 375 TOTAL 5,679 EVN Annual Report 1999, 1999, EVN ,580MW ,852MW ,723MW MW ,000MW 45
59 3 LOLE 24hr MW 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, THE MASTER PLAN ON ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM, 2001, EVN
60 2-7 MW Pha Lai 2 TPP 600 Yaly HPP 3& Ham Thuan HPP Da Mi HPP 1 89 Phu My 1 ST 370 Total 1,569 Ba Ria add-on GT 56 Ham Thuan HPP Da Mi HPP 2 89 Phu My 2.1 ST 143 Na Duong TPP 100 Phu My 4 GT 288 Can Don HPP 72 Phu My 2.1 ST extension 140 Cao Ngan TPP 100 Phu My 4 ST Phu My 2.2 GT 480 Omon TPP #1 300 Phu My 2.2 ST 240 Cam Pha TPP #1 150 Uong Bi TPP extension 300 Omon TPP #2 300 Ca Mau gas turbine C/C #1 360 Dai Binh HPP 300 Rao Quan HPP 70 Geo-Thermal Power 50 Total 3,831 Se San3 HPP 273 Cua Dat HPP 120 Ca Mau gas turbine C/C #2 360 Geo-Thermal Power 50 imported from Lao 300 Na Hang HPP Dai Thi 300 Thai Binh gas turbine C/C 360 A Vuong HPP 170 Hai Phong TPP #1 300 Ban Mai HPP Ban La 260 Dong Nai 3 HPP Hai Phong TPP #2 300 Ca Mau gas turbine C/C #3 360 Dong Nai 4 HPP 270 imported from Lao 400 Cam Pha TPP#2 150 Ca Mau gas turbine C/C #3 360 Quang Ninh TPP #1 300 imported from Lao 300 Pleikrong HPP 120 Song Ba Ha HPP 200 Omon Gas-TPP #3 extension 300 Total 5,793 47
61 Huaphan Savannakhet 35kV MW ,400MW PPA ,000MW 2 2 F/S kV MW MW 3 1.8MW 5 500kV 220kV 2 110kV 66kV 110kV 22kV 35kV kV 2,416km 220kV 4,414km 110kV 7,757km EVN 48
62 25 % THE MASTER PLAN ON ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM, 2001, EVN % 30% 40% Hoa Binh Tri An Hoa Binh Hz 5% DSS Daily Start & Stop 2 Pha Lai 5 10% Hoa Binh Hoa Binh IPP MWh EVN Energy Charge Hiep Phuoc IPP 375MW 60MW 300MW IPP Phu My 3 35 EVN IE 49
63 6,000 IPP IPP BOT IPP Energy Charge Capacity Charge 2 WASP Wien Automatic System Planning Package Similar Date Forecast % 500kV MOI 1 JBIC JBIC Yanhee Multipurpose Project Power Trade Strategy for the Greater Mekong Sub-Region 36 ADB GMS TA ADB 50
64 3 ADB GMS ADB 1995 Sub-regional Energy Sector Study for the Greater Mekong Sub-region Policy Framework 4 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Power Grid 2020 ASEAN EGAT Tenaga National Berhad: TNB ASEAN ASEAN Mekong Integrated Transmission System Study Basin-Wide ADB Regional Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in the GMS 2 GMS 3 GMS EGAT ADB 51
65 LOLE Loss-of-Load Expectation LOLP Loss-of-Load Probability EUE Expected Undelivered Energy LOLE LOLE LOLE LOLE 52
66 3 LOLE LOLE LOLE P i H i Pi Hi 3-1 LOLE 3-2 P i Hi LOLE (MW) LOLE Pi 0 20hrs Hi 8760hrs 10% 3-1 LOLE 3-2 LOLE 4 12 JETRO EGAT 6 RETICS 5 RETICS 53
67 54 RETICS RETICS LOLE LOLE LOLE LOLE 1 kwh 8760 ($/kcal) 860(kcal/kWh)
68 2 3 PDPAT 20 PDPAT 4 PDPAT RETICS 5 55
69 Financial Internal Rate of Return: FIRR 3-3 A region B region A system B system A region B region A system B system Load Load Load Load B B A A 4 Udon Thani-1 2 Phone-Tong 56
70 LOLE LOLE hr hr % hr Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul 2000 IDE-JETRO 57
71 Total: 1,100 MW Total: 790 MW Others Hydro Hydro 26% 31% 100% Total: 46,900 MW Coal Hydro 25% 19% Total: 25,800 MW Coal 13% Others 8% Hydro 42% Gas+Oil 43% Gas+Oil Gas+Oil 56% 37% hr hr Base Case 100MW Base Case 38 3% 5% 3-2 Base Case Total MW ,519 17, MW ,984 20,866 1,038 68,461 hr Base Case 10,000MW ,000MW 58
72 Base Case Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam Base Case Case 1 Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia Case 1:
73 Case 2 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System 650MW+ VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam Case 2: - - Case 3 Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia Case 3:
74 Case 4 Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam Case 4: - Case 5 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia Case 5:
75 Case 6 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam Case 6: - - Case 7 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System 650MW+ VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia Case 7:
76 Case 8 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System 650MW+ VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam Case 8: Case 9 Laos LAOS 100MW System THAILAND System VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand System Vietnam Cambodia Case 9: - 63
77 Case 10 Laos 1100MW+ 100MW THAILAND System LAOS System 650MW+ VIETNAM System CAMBODIA Thailand Cambodia System Vietnam Case 10:
78 a Case ,000MW 370MW 400 Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Reduction MW Capacity MW 3-6 Case 1 b Case Nam Theun 1,100MW 650MW Case ,000MW 370MW 400 Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Reduction MW Capacity MW 3-7 Case 2 65
79 c Case ,000MW 390MW 500 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW Capacity MW 3-8 Case 3 d Case MW 35MW 50 Cambodia Vietnam Total 40 Reduction MW Capacity MW 3-9 Case 4 66
80 e Case Case 2 Case ,000MW 410MW Reduction MW Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Capacity MW 3-10 Case 5 f Case Case 2 5 Case MW 100MW 150 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Reduction MW Capacity MW 3-11 Case 6 67
81 (g) Case Case 2 Case MW 410MW 500 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW Capacity MW 3-12 Case 7 h Case Case 7 Case 2 Case MW 410MW 500 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW Capacity MW 3-13 Case 8 68
82 i Case Case MW 40MW Reduction MW Cambodia Laos Thailand Total Capacity MW 3-14 Case 9 j Case Case 8 Case 2 Case MW 410MW 500 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW Capacity MW 3-15 Case 10 69
83 k MW MW Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case
84 % 1 2.5% Power Exchange Rate Reserve Margin Shortage Economical Power Exchange 10 /kwh 3-4 Unit: US$/kW Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Hydro 1, , ,200 Gas C/C Coal Unit: /10 3 kcal Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Hydro Gas Coal Oil Diesel Base Case Base Case Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,668 1,942 5, ,692 1,776 7, ,373 3,718 13, TWh /kwh
85 1 a Case 1 Case 1 1,000MW MW 70MW 250MW 27MUS /yr 53MUS /yr 3-6 Case 1 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 138 3,661 1,921 5, ,625 1,790 7, ,338 3,685 13, TWh /kwh MW Case 1 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 1 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
86 b Case 2 Case 2 1,000MW Case 2 8MW 100MW 230MW 29MUS$/yr 55MUS$/yr 3-9 Case 2 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 138 3,658 1,923 5, ,623 1,790 7, ,335 3,682 13, TWh /kwh MW Case 2 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 2 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
87 c Case 3 Case 3 1,000MW Case 3 42MW 150MW 220MW 100MW 22MW 43MUS$/yr 14MUS$/yr 3-12 Case 3 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,654 1,923 5, ,661 1,804 7, ,352 3,686 13, TWh /kwh MW Case 3 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 3 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
88 d Case 4 Case 4 100MW Case 4 18MW 2MUS$/yr 8MUS$/yr 3-15 Case 4 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Vietnam Total 78 1,942 2, ,782 1, ,714 3, TWh /kwh MW Case 4 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Vietnam Total Case 4 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
89 e Case 5 Case 5 1,000MW Case 5 37MW 31MW 100MW 220MW 40MUS$/yr 57MUS$/yr 3-18 Case 5 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,658 1,923 5, ,631 1,791 7, ,335 3,681 13, TWh /kwh MW Case 5 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 5 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
90 f Case 6 Case 6 100MW Case 6 37MW 14MW 7MUS$/yr 27MUS$/yr 3-21 Case 6 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Total ,668 3, ,680 5, ,365 9, TWh /kwh MW Case 6 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Total Case 6 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
91 g Case 7 500MW Case 7 38MW 11MW 150MW 220MW 39MUS$/yr 52MUS$/yr 3-24 Case 7 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,654 1,923 5, ,638 1,790 7, ,337 3,680 13, TWh /kwh MW Case 7 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 7 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
92 h Case 8 Case 8 500MW Case 8 41MW 11MW 150MW 220MW 40MUS$/yr 56MUS$/yr 3-27 Case 8 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,654 1,923 5, ,635 1,791 7, ,338 3,681 13, TWh /kwh MW Case Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 8 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
93 i Case 9 Case 9 100MW Case 9 40MW 100MW 50MW 10MUS$/yr 4MUS$/yr Case Case 9 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Total ,663 3, ,703 5, ,376 9, TWh /kwh MW Case 9 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Total Case 9 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
94 j Case 10 Case MW Case 10 39MW 11MW 50MW 220MW 30MUS$/yr 48MUS$/yr 3-33 Case 10 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,663 1,923 5, ,656 1,775 7, ,348 3,684 13, TWh /kwh MW Case 10 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 10 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
95 MUS$ Case 1 500kV 2 340km kV 3000MVA kV 2 360km 34 (147) Case 2 * kV 4600MVA 49 (101) (248) Case 3 500kV 2 520km kV 3000MVA Case 4 110kV 2 100km kV 240MVA 4 8 Case 5 * 500kV 129 (213) km (316) kV 4600MVA 75 (103) Case 6 * 500kV 260km 9 (94) 110kV 220km kV 1800MVA (137) 16 (43) 110kV 120MVA 500kV Case 7 * 2 780km 180 (293) kV 2 100km (408) kV 5200MVA 63 (115) Case 8 * 500kV km 251 (364) kV 2 100km (487) kV 5200MVA 71 (123) Case 9 110kV 2 220km kV 240MVA kV 2 360km 220kV 2 100km 115 (228) Case 10 * kV 2 220km (334) kV 4600MVA, 54 (106) 220kV 600 MVA 82
96 % 10% 15% O&M 1% 2% % 3-37 Case 2 Case 5 Case 10 Case 7 Case 2 Case 1 Case 4 Case 6 Case 9 Case 3 Case 4 Case % 25 8% 20 10% 3-38 Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 83
97 % Unit: MUS$/yr (MW) O&M Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Unit: MUS$/yr 15 15% 20 10% 25 8% Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case
98 2 2 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 5 Case 7 Case 8 Case 10 Case 9 Case 1 Case 2 Case GWh Month EdL Base Case 85
99 Case Case 9 Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case EdL
100 EGAT Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case hr Base Case 100MW Base Case 3-39 Base Case 2020 Unit: MW Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,405 26, ,352 57,984 30,536 90,643 hr
101 a 2020 Case Case Case ,500MW 450MW 500 Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 400 Reduction MW Capacity MW Case 2 b 2020 Case Case MW 520MW 600 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 500 Reduction MW Capacity MW Case 5 88
102 c 2020 Case Case MW 520MW 600 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 500 Reduction MW Capacity MW Case 7 d 2020 Case Case MW 520MW 600 Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 500 Reduction MW Capacity MW Case 10 89
103 e Unit: MW Case Case Case Case Case Base Case Base Case Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,561 2,978 7, ,428 2,788 10, ,002 5,766 18, TWh /kwh
104 a Case 2 Case MW 95MW 285MW 62MUS$/yr 67MUS$/yr Case 2 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total 164 4,552 2,944 7, ,418 2,731 10, ,938 5,778 17, TWh /kwh Case 2 Unit: MUS$/yr Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 2 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
105 b Case 5 Case Case 5 70MW 116MW 40MW 270MW 61MUS$/yr 59MUS$/yr Case 5 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,558 2,945 7, ,418 2,737 10, ,959 5,773 17, TWh /kwh Case 5 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 5 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
106 c Case 7 Case Case 7 75MW 116MW 260MW 57MUS$/yr 61MUS$/yr Case 7 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,561 2,947 7, ,423 2,731 10, ,964 5,771 17, TWh /kwh Case 7 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 7 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
107 d Case 10 Case Case 10 73MW 116MW 35MW 280MW 62MUS$/yr 59MUS$/yr Case 10 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total ,558 2,944 7, ,440 2,715 10, ,957 5,777 17, TWh /kwh Case 10 Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Case 10 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase
108 e 15 15% Unit: MUS$/yr MW O&M Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case
109 Case FIRR 1 FIRR C B Financial Internal Rate of Return: FIRR t= T Ct = t= T Bt t t (1 + R) (1 + R) t= 1 t= 1 T = Ct = t Bt = t R = FIRR 2 BOT O&M 1kWh O&M 96
110 A B A A B P kwh B a ( /kwh) A P kwh a /kwh a /kwh < b /kwh b /kwh B P kwh b /kwh P kwh b /kwh P kwh a /kwh P b a P b a A B Case 5 a < b A 4 : 10 /kwh : 8 /kwh : 6 /kwh : 4 /kwh B 4 : 6 /kwh : 4 /kwh : 2 /kwh : 0 /kwh 2 /kwh
111 GWh /kwh 3-24 Case /kwh 1.0 /kwh /kwh /kwh 1.0 /kwh /kwh 3-25 Case 98
112 FIRR 4 Case GWh /kwh 3-26 Case /kwh 1.0 /kwh /kwh 3-27 Case 2 99
113 FIRR FIRR FIRR Case /kwh 1.5 /kwh FIRR 6% Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case FIRR /kwh /kwh 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh % 4.78% 2.60% % 5.30% 3.19% % 0.43% -2.41% % -0.10% -3.03% % 0.55% -2.27% % 0.83% -1.95% % -5.88% -9.82% % -5.57% -9.45% % -5.32% -9.15% % -3.03% -6.45% % % -4.19% % -7.82% % -3.67% -7.21% % -7.03% % % -2.15% -5.41% % -4.78% -8.51% % -4.39% -8.06%
114 FIRR Case /kwh 1.5 /kwh FIRR FIRR Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case FIRR /kwh /kwh 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh 0.5 /kwh 1.0 /kwh % -7.64% % 3.26% 10.93% 1.86% 9.49% -0.74% % 2.30% 19.14% 0.79% 18.36% -1.99% % 7.01% 17.83% 6.01% 16.97% 3.99% % 10.18% 12.56% 9.43% 11.28% 7.84% % -3.23% -6.69% % 2.75% 8.58% 1.30% 6.88% -1.40% % 0.28% 15.08% -1.48% 14.02% -4.63% % 3.71% 13.09% 2.37% 11.86% -0.17% % 6.02% 7.20% 4.92% 5.33% 2.76% % -9.00% -2.27% % -5.56% % % % 4.01% % 1.71% % % -4.82% 2.78% -7.30% 0.31% % % -1.83% -1.22% -3.88% -4.33% -7.45% % -5.03% 0.47% -7.55% -2.36% % % -6.44% 7.57% -9.17% 5.76% % % -1.42% 6.98% -3.41% 5.09% -6.90% % 1.53% 2.66% -0.07% 0.17% -2.99% 101
115 On-Grid 42 On-Grid Off-Grid IPP p p
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120 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 5 Case 7 Case 8 Case MW Case 4 Case 6 Case 9 Case 4 Case 9 Case 9 Case 4 Case 1 Case 2 Case 5 Case 6 Case 7 Case 8 Case 10 Case 3 Case 4 Case
121 4 Case 2 Case 5 Case 7 Case 10 Case 2 Case 1 Case 10 Case 8 2 Case 1 Case Unit: MUS$/yr Cambodia Laos Thailand Vietnam Case Case Case Case Unit: MUS$/yr 15 15% 20 10% 25 8% Case Case Case Case O&M 108
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125 Case 2 Unit: TWh Fuel Type Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Hydro Pumped Hydro Coal Gas Oil Diesel Total Purchase Divergence ,000 Thailand Vietnam 30,000 MW 20,000 10, hour
126 Case ,000MW 1,200MW 370MW 3 Reduction MW Laos Thailand Vietnam Total Capacity MW Case 2 51 Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul, Noboru Seki, Yasushiro Yokosawa, Masahiko Mouri
127 Case 11 Yunnan System Yunnan 1100MW + LAOS 100MW System Laos 650MW+ THAILAND System Thailan Cambodia CAMBODIA System VIETNAM System Vietnam 4-4 Case 11: Case ,000MW 1,080MW 1200 Laos Thailand Vietnam Yunnan Total 1000 Reduction MW Capacity MW 4-5 Case
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137 (1998) ADB. 2001a. Lao Power Sector Study. 2001b. Power Sector Strategy Study (TA 3374-Lao) EdC Electricite du Cambodge 2000 (Annual Report ) EdL Power Development Plan up to 2020 EGAT. 2000a. Annual Report b. EGAT Power Development Plan PDP EVN Annual Report The Master plan on Electric Power Development in Vietnam for the period of perspective up to 2020 MIME Cambodia Power Sector Strategy Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul, Noboru Seki, Yasushiro Yokosawa, Masahiko Mouri The Reliability Aspects of the Power Interconnection among the Mekong Sub-Region Countries, BULK POWER TRANSMISSION SYSTEM INTEGRATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, CIGRE INDIA. World Bank Power Transmission Master Plan & Rural Electrification Strategy 124
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