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1 IMES DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES General Purpose Technology(GPT) Discussion Paper No.99-J- INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES BANK OF JAPAN
2
3 IMES Discussion Paper Series 99-J General Purpose Technology(GPT) General Purpose Technology(GPT) GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT JEL classification:d20 J30 L10 O30 * ( tetsuya.inoue@boj.or.jp)
4 Greenspan 6
5 Schumpeter Solow (New Growth Theory) 1 General Purpose Technology (GPT) GPT GPT GPT 1 GPT 1 Brynjofsson (1993) Sichel (1997) mismanagement redistribution learning small share of computer stock mismeasurement 1
6 GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT Helpman and Trajtenberg (1994) GPT General Purpose GPT 2 Bresnahan and Trajtenberg (1995) 2 Radner
7 Enabling Technologies GPT Katz and Shapiro 1985 VTR VHS Sah and Stiglizts
8 David (1990) Crafts (1996) Freeman and Soete (1997) (1878) (1879)
9 Sichel (1996) GNP deflator Freeman and Soete (1997) GPT GPT Bailey and Gordon (1988) Oliner and Sichel (1994) GPT 5
10 GPT 1960 Milgrom and Roberts (1990) LAN 3 3 GPT GPT Caballero and Jaffe (1993) Jaffe and Trajtenberg (1996) James (1998) 6
11 LAN < > (1998) % 49.6% 71.8% <19.8%> 79.5% <19.6%> 33.6% 64.5% 81.3% <14.7%> 85.9% <15.4%> 47.3% 71.6% 86.4% <36.8%> 94.9% <41.1%> 43.8% 64.0% 87.1% <38.8%> 93.5% <36.1%> 36.0% 65.8% 88.2% <27.5%> 95.2% <28.6%> 16.2% 32.3% 65.1% <23.8%> 71.6% <18.3%> 18.3% 36.0% 61.9% <12.6%> 72.7% <11.0%> 34.2% 73.0% 81.6% <23.7%> 92.5% <25.1%> 7.5% 20.3% 50.4% <5.8%> 56.5% <6.9%> 4 GPT GPT 4 GPT (1997) (1998) 7
12 GPT GPT GPT GPT Cobb-Douglas Y = A L K Y L K A (dy/y) = (da/a) + (dl/l) + (dk/k) Total Factor Productivity TFP Rosenberg David Solow Gordon Triplett TFP Solow (1956) Jorgenson TFP 8
13 3 New Growth Theory Barro (1990) 5 Real Business Cycle 1 stylized fact GPT Sichel (1997) Goldin and Katz (1996) GPT 5 9
14 GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT D defactostandard 10
15 defacto-standard Farrel and Saloner 1985 VHS 6 Berg 1985 Klemperer (1987) Farrel and Shapiro(1988) Klemperer(1987) (learning) (transaction) 6 11
16 (1997) GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT Morrison (1997) GPT 12
17 GPT defacto-standard Farrel and Saloner (1985) Farrel and Shapiro (1988) Farrel and Shapiro (1988) 13
18 [Farrel and Shapiro (1988) ] overlapping generation model s r W(0) W(1) p 2p rw(1) p rw(1) rw(0) rw(0) p rw(1) 14
19 2(p-s)+rW(1) s W(0) W(1) 2s/(1 s) p 2s GPT
20 16 Stein(1997) Stein 1 1 n p (1 n)s
21 incumbent C i t i incumbent t D i t d C i t A i t (A i t A ) d C t i A (A t i A ) A entrant C e t t C i t e entrant D e e t d C t K e e t k C t t 1 i t A t for all t t t * ( ) P * G t PG( * (1)) X e j X e A j Π j =1 {1 PG( * ( ))}{1 PG( * ( A))} ( j A) 1 A X e j Fe * C t e [{(1 d A* ) t } 1 d k] 17
22 Fe Fe =d[ A=1 j {(1 j ) X e j (1 r) j } {(1 A j= A+ ) X e 1 j (1 r) j }] 0 1 A * (A) * (1) (1 d A ) (1 d ) 1 * A * G( * ) 1 PG( * ) Stein (creative destruction) Schumpeter GPT 18
23 9 10 Katz and Shapiro(1985) [Katz and Shapiro 9 Sharpe(1990) Pagano and Jappelli (1993) 10 Matutes and Regibeau(1988) 19
24 r r [1,A] v v v v e v e v e p i A e i z A i j i i * i ( * i ) 2 A ( ) 2 2 A z n * ) ( i=1 i 1 n i j n=1 j i i ( ) i i ( ) ( i ) 20
25 ( i ) ( ) ( ) i ) v concave GPT GPT GPT New Growth Theory GPT GPT GPT Aghion and Howitt (1992) GPT 21
26 11 Helpman and Trajtenberg 1994 Helpman and Trajtenberg GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT 1 1 GPT x j 0, n i w j [ ] p i (j) a x i (j) x i (for all j) i i i i i ( i )( n i ( )/ 1 a a ) i n i 11 22
27 Q i i ( i i ) ( i i ) (t) i (t) t exp( R(t, ))( i ( )d ) R(t, ) t r(z)dz n i dt ( i )dt 1 i i i C (t) i (t) Q i (t) (t) ( i i ) ( i i ) m i =1 n i i i L m GPT GPT 23
28 1 (1 a) (1 a) ( 1 a)/ { (1 a) } i n i a GPT GPT n i (1 )( a ) ( ) GPT n i (1 )( a ) ( ) (1 a) n i GPT GPT GPT 24
29 12 GPT 13 Human Capital Uzawa Lucas Helpman and Trajtenberg 1994 Grossman and Helpman 1991 Grossman and Helpman R&D Helpman and Trajtenberg 1994 W l 12 GPT Helpman and Trajtenberg 1996 GPT 13 Ramey and Shapiro 1997 GPT 25
30 C x C x (W l ) C γ C γ (W l ) {(1 a)p x X C γ (W l )} C x (W l )X P x C x (W l ) a n n C γ (W l ) shephard s lemma A Lγ A Lx X L A Hγ A Hx X H T { exp( T)} W l {exp( S) exp( T)} h(s) exp{ (T S)} h (S) h(s) (W h W l ) { exp( T)} {exp( S) exp( T)}h(S) 26
31 (1 a) ( ) W l C γ ( W h W l ) lx a Lγ C γ (W l ) W l Hx a Hγ C γ (W l ) W h H lx Lγ Hx Hγ h(s) N [ lx a Lγ ( a){ ( + )}] [T{exp( S) exp( T)} (T S){ exp( T)}] [ Hx a Hγ ( a){ ( + )}] W l N W l [ ( + )] W l p N p E E p N ( + ) 27
32 GPT h(s) A h( S ) A A NN E E W l ( + ) GPT S GPT GPT 28
33 GPT defacto-standard GPT GPT GPT GPT 29
34 GPT 1 2 GPT 3 GPT GPT winner takes all GPT 30
35 Farrel and Shapiro 1988 W(0) W(1) p q q p rw(0) q p p rw(1) q p s 2(p s) rw(1) rw(0) p rw(1) rw(0) 2(p s) rw(1) p min[ r{w(1) W(0)} s r{w(1) W(0)}/2] 2p rw(1) 31
36 2(p s) rw(1) p rw(1) 2(p s) rw(1) rw(0) p 2s rw(0) r{w(1) W(0)} p 2s p 2s 2s rw(0) s r{w(1) W(0)}/2 r{w(1) W(0)} p s r{w(1) W(0)}/2 {2s rw(0)} {2p rw(1)} {2s rw(0)} 2[s r{w(1) W(0)}/2] rw(1) rw(0) 0 {2s rw(0)} {2p rw(1)} s r{w(1) W(0)}/2 r{w(1) W(0)} p r{w(1) W(0)} {2s rw(0)} {2p rw(1)} {2s rw(0)} 2 r{w(1) W(0)} rw(1) 2s r{w(1) W(0)} s r{w(1) W(0)}/2 r{w(1) W(0)} {2s rw(0)} {2p rw(1)} p 2s W(0) W(1) 2s/(1 s) 32
37 W(1) W(0) s s n np+rw(1) (1 n)(p s) rw(1) p p (1 n)s q p max 2(p s) f rw(1) p f rw(1) rw(0) 2p rw(1) f min f rw(1) 2rW(0) 2s rw(0) p f rw(1) max 2( s) f rw(1) rw(0) 2s f rw(0) min f rw(1) 2rW(0) 2s rw(0) 2s f rw(0) min f > r{w(1) W(0)} 33
38 Stein 1997 R&D N U t N i C t i t i i D t d C t A i t i (A t A ) d C t i A (A t i A ) learning-by-doing A C e i t t C t e D e t d C e t K e t k C e t t R&D t 34
39 t G( t ) D e i t D t for all t t A i t for all t C c i t C t C D c t d C c t (C c t D c i t ) ( C t D t i i d C t (1 A* ) ) A * i min(a t A) (C t e D t e ) (C t i D t i t (1 d A ) (1 d) ) i i C t D t i i (C t D t ) ( C t e D t e K t e ) C e t [{(1 d A* ) t } 1 d k] 35
40 d C e t (1 ) d C e t (1 2 ) d[ A=1 j {(1 j ) X e j (1 r) j } {(1 A ) X e j= A+ 1 j (1 r) j }] X e j r Fe t t C t e [{(1 d A* ) t } 1 d k Fe] t t * ( ) R&D t P * t G PG( * (1)) PG( * (2)) X e j X e l j Π j =1[1 PG( * (j))] l A 36
41 A X e A j Π j =1[1 PG( * (j))][1 PG( * ( A))] ( j A) 1 A X e j * Fe A * (A) * (1) (1 d A ) (1 d ) 1 * A R&D G( * ) * 1 PG( * ) A A inertia Schumpeter 37
42 Stein 1997 R&D inertia * k Fe * Katz and Shapiro 1985 i i 1 n i i j n=1 j 38
43 r r [1,A] 1 v v v v( e ) v ( e ) v ( e ) lim v( e ) 0 i i i i ( e i ) i i ( e i ) (A ) (A ) A ( e i ) i i A ( e i ) i i i ( ( e i )) n j=1 j j * i ( e n i ) j =1 j i 39
44 [1,n] n (n 1) n=1 j j n j=1 ( e i ) * i { ( e i ) j= i ( e j )} ( ) i i * i ( * i ) 2 ( e i ) i ( e i ) A ( ) 2 A z i n * ) 2 2 ( i=1 i i i i ( i ) ( ) ( i ( i ) ( ) ( ) i ) v concave 40
45 W S S W W Helpman and Trajtenberg 1994 GPT GPT GPT GPT 0, n i i x j j [ ] i i i 41
46 i [ 0 n i (x i (j)) a dj] 1 / a 0 a 1 p i (j) x i (j) (p i (j)) 1 /(1 a ) 1/ ( 1 ) a D i j x i (j) (p i (j)) 1/ ( 1 ) n i a D i [ 0 (p i (j)) a /( 1 a) dj] 1/a GPT {p i (j) }x i x i (j) p i (j) a x i (j) x i (for all j) i ( 1 a)/ i n a i X i X i n i x i X i i GPT i ( 1 a)/ i X i i (1 i )(1 n a i ) i n i Q Q i a 42
47 (1 a) a i {(1 a) i i } (n i a) i i (t) t exp( R(t, ))( i ( )d ) R(t, ) t r(z)dz t ( i i ) ( i i ) (t) n i dt i dt i i 1 i i i i i m m i =1 n i i =1 i i m GPT GPT log max t exp( )log ( )d 43
48 ( (t) (t)) ( Q Q ) (t) m (t) i =1 i (t) m Q i =1 i (t) 1 (t) GPT GPT n i (1 )( a ) (1 a) n i n i (1 )( a ) GDP 1 (1 a) GDP (1 a) { (1 a) }a i ( 1 a)/ a n i 44
49 Grossman and Helpman P x X (t) P x X 1 1 C x C x (W l ) C γ C γ (W l ) W l C x (W l )X P x C x (W l ) a 45
50 ( n n) C γ (W l ) 1 P x C x (W l ) (1 a) P x X {(1 a)p x X C γ (W l ) } C γ (W l ) {(1 a)p x X C γ (W l )} shephard s lemma { C γ (W l ) W l } { C x (W l ) W l }X { C γ (W l ) W h } { C x (W l ) W h }X L H A Lγ A Lx X L A Hγ A Hx X H t+ T exp { ( t)} W d (1 exp( T)) W l l t 46
51 t+ T exp{ ( t)} W h h(s) t+ S {exp( S) exp( T)} h(s) h(s) S h (S) > 0 h (S) < 0 h(0) 0 S S exp( S) W h h(s) ds ={exp( S) exp( T)}W h h (S)dS exp{ (T S)} h (S) h(s) W h W l {1 exp( T)} {exp( S) exp( T)}h(S) {(1 a)p x X C γ (W l )} (1 a) ( ) W l C γ (1 W l ) = A W C (W W ) lx Lx l x l h A W C (W W ) Hx Hx h x l h Lγ A Lγ W l C γ (W l ) Hγ A Hγ W h C γ (W l ) { lx a Lγ C γ (W l ) } W l L { Hx a Hγ C γ (W l ) } H H h(s) 47
52 { Hx a Hγ C γ (W l ) } h(s) N [ lx a Lγ (1 a){1 ( + )}] [T{exp( S) exp( T)} (T S){ exp( T)}] [ Hx a Hγ (1 a){1 ( + ) ] W l N NN NN W l [1 ( + )] W l p N p E E p N 1 ( + ) h(s) h(s) Ah ( S ) A A NN W l 1 ( + ) 48
53 A W l A S 1 exp{ (T S)} h (S) h(s) Aghion, Philippe and Peter Howitt (1992), A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction, Econometrica, 60 (2), pp Baily, Martin and Robert Gordon (1988), The Productivity Slowdown, Measurement Issues, and the Explosion of Computer Power, Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, (2), pp Barro, Robert (1990), Government Spending in a Simple Model on Endogenous Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 98 (5), pp.s103-s125 Barro, Robert and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth, McGrow-Hill Berg, Sanford (1989), The Production of Compatibility : Technical Standards as Collective Goods, KYKLOS, 42, pp Bresnahan, Timothy and Manuel Trajtenberg (1995), General Purpose Technologies Engines of Growth?, Journal of Econometrics, 65, pp Brynjorfsson, Erik (1993), The Productivity Paradox of Information Technology, Communications of the Association for Computing Machinery, December, pp Caballero, Ricardo and Adam Jaffe (1993), How High are the Giants Shoulders : An Empirical Assessment of Knowledge Spillovers and Creative Destruction in a Model of Economic Growth, NBER Macroeconomic Annual, pp
54 Crafts, Nicholas (1996), The First Industrial Revolution : A Guided Tour for Growth Economists, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 86 (2), pp David, Paul (1990), The Dynamo and the Computer : An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 80 (2), pp David, Paul (1994), Positive Feedbacks and Research Productivity in Science: Reopening Another Black Box, in Economics of Technology, O.Greenstrand eds, Elsevier Science Devine, Warren (1983), From Shifts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification, Journal of Economic History, 43 (2), pp Farrel, Joseph and Garth Saloner (1986), Standardization and Variety, Economic Letters, 20, pp Farrel, Joseph and Carl Shapiro (1988), Dynamic Competition with Switching Costs, Rand Journal of Economics, 19 (1), pp Freeman, Chris and Luc Soete (1997), The Economics of Industrial Revolution, 3 rd Edition, MIT Press Goldin Claudia and Lawrence Katz (1996), Technology, Skill, and the Wage Structure : Insights from the Past, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 86 (2),pp Grossman, Gene and Elhanan Helpman (1991), Innovation and Growth in The Global Economy, The MIT Press Helpman, Elhanan and Manuel Trajtenberg (1994), A Time to Sow and A Time to Reap : Growth Based on General Purpose Technologies, NBER Working Paper Series No.4854 Helpman, Elhanan and Manuel Trajtenberg (1996), Diffusion of General Purpose Technologies, NBER Working Paper Series No.5773 Jaffe, Adam and Manuel Trajtenberg (1996), Flows of Knowledge from Universities and Federal Labs : Modeling the Flow of Patent Citations over Time and across Institutional and Geographic Boundaries, NBER Working Paper Series No.5712 Jones, Charles (1998), The Japanese Economy in a World of Knowledge-Based Growth, Discussion Paper Series 98-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan Jordan, Matsudaira (1998), Buy Two Computers and Call Me in the Morning, Discussion Paper, Fujitsu Research Institute Katz, Michael and Carl Shapiro (1985), Network Externalities, Competition and Compatibility, American Economic Review, 75 (3), pp
55 Klemperer, Paul (1987), The Competitiveness of Markets with Switching Costs, Rand Journal of Economics, 18 (1), pp Matutes, Carmen and Pierre Regibeau (1988), Mix and Match : Product Compatibility without Network Externalities, Rand Journal of Economics, 19 (2), pp Milgrom, Paul and John Roberts (1990), The Economics of Modern Manufacturing : Technology, Strategy and Organization, American Economic Review, 80 (3), pp Morrison, Caterine (1997), Assessing the Productivity of Information Technology Equipment in U.S. Manufacturing Industries, Review of Economics and Statistics, pp Oliner, Stephen and Daniel Sichel (1994), Computers and Output Growth Revisited : How big is the Puzzle?, Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, (2), pp Pagano, Marco and Tullio Jappelli (1993), Information Sharing in Credit Markets, Journal of Finance, 68 (5), pp Radner, Roy (1992), Hierarchy : The Economics of Managing, Journal of Economic Literature, pp Ramey, Valerie and Matthew Shapiro (1997), Costly Capital Allocation and the Effects of Government Spending, presented at Carnegie-Rochester Public Policy Conference at Rochester, New York, April Sah, Raaj and Joseph Stiglitz (1986), The Architecture of Economic Systems : Hierarchies and Polyarchies, American Economic Review, 76 (4),pp Sharpe, Stephan (1990), Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Consumer Relationships, Journal of Finance, 65 (4), pp Sichel, Daniel (1997), The Computer revolution-an Economic Perspective, Brookings Institution Press Solow, Robert (1956), A Contribution on the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, pp Stein, Jeremy (1997), Waves of Creative Destruction: Firm-Specific Learning-by- Doing and the Dynamics of Innovation, Review of Economic Studies, 64, pp , 51
56 (1998), 98-J-30 (1997) (1998)
1 1 1 [2000]
* 2000 7 26 1 1 1 [2000] 1 2 1 2 2 1 B to C 250000 億円 200000 日本米国 213,200 150000 100000 50000 0 153,600 106,900 71,100 66,620 42,700 43,860 22,500 26,940 15,340 645 3,360 7,730 1998 年 1999 年 2000 年 2001
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