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2 - October / QQE GDP QE
3 de facto /
4 - October - - (y/y, %) China Malaysia - -1 Indonesia Thailand -1 Korea HK (RHA) Source: International Financial Statistics IFS (IMF) (y/y, %) Brazil Russia Turkey India Source: IFS (IMF) - - / - -
5 (1=1) Lehman Shock QE QE3 Recovery of the US Economy 1 16 Brazil India Indonesia Turkey Source: International Financial Statistics IFS (IMF) (1=1) Lehman Shock 6 QE QE3 1 1 Euro Crisis Australia South Africa peaked out Russia (RHA) Source: International Financial Statistics IFS (IMF) (1=1) Lehman Shock Euro Crisis peaked out 9 Brazil India 7 Indonesia Turkey Source: BIS Real Effective Exchange Rate (1=1) Lehman Shock South Africa Australia Russia Source: BIS Real Effective Exchange Rate
6 - October QE, - QE - - (5=1) Note: Average of crude Oil prices Source: WEO database (IMF) (5=1) 5 3 Food 1 Agricultural 19 Metals Source: WEO database (IMF) - -
7 (1=1) Russia Brazil Indonesia Turkey Source: IFS (IMF) (1=1) BOJ's 'Bazula' China USShare JPNShare Source: IFS (IMF) QQE - FRB QE ECB M - -
8 - October (y/y, %) US JPN Euro China Source: IFS (IMF) (y/y, %) 1 US JPN Euro China Source: IFS (IMF) GDP -
9 (1=1) (y/y, %) QQE 16 1 GDP 1 16 Shanghai /HK Lib Q1 3 Q1 Source: IFS (IMF) Share price 5 Q1 7 Q1 9 Q1 11 Q1 13 Q1 15 Q1 1 6 (1=1) Shanghai (y/y) 1 Share (LHA) /HK Lib. Prod (RHA) Source: IFS (IMF) Yuan $ 13 Yen Euro Source: BIS (Real Effective Exchange Rate) (1=1) (y/y, %) 1 REER (LHA) Prod (RHA) Source: IFS (IMF) CNH CNY
10 - October.
11 / GIIPS GDP Chinn-Ito Index -, -
12 - October (%, GDP) (y/y, %) 1 FDI Por olio 1 Other GDP (RHA) Source: IFS (IMF) INS MAL TH Source: Chinn,Ito Index (15) IND ROK China Source: Chinn,Ito Index (15) IMF SBI BB FDI
13 / (%, GDP) FDI Por olio Other FA Source: IFS (IMF) IOF FDI
14 - October (%, GDP) 15 1 FDI Other Por olio FA Source: IFS (IMF) Capital Account Openness CAOPEN 3 AR BR Chile Colombia Venezuela Source: Chinn,Ito(15) IMF
15 IMF (%, GDP) Source: IFS (IMF) FDI Other CA (RHA) Por olio GDP (RHA) (y/y, %) (%, GDP) Iceland Turkey Russia Source: Chinn,Ito Index (15) IMF / IMF
16 - October IMF EU (%, GDP) (y/y, %) FDI Por olio -5 Other GDP (RHA) Source: IFS (IMF)
17 (y/y, %) (%, GDP) FDI Por olio -1 Other GDP (RHA) Source: IFS (IMF) Ohta FRB QE, QE
18 - October M QE MB - MB M (1=1) Shanghai Stock Prices(LHA) JPN Monetary Base (RHA) Sources: Bank of Japan, IFS (IMF) ( bn) (1=1) (y/y, %) JPN M (RHA) Shanghai 6 Stock Prices(LHA) Sources: Bank of Japan, IFS (IMF) (y/y, %) (y/y, %) Japan 5 China MB(RHA) MB(LHA) Sources: Bank of Japan, IFS (IMF) (y/y, %) China MB(LHA) US Monetary Base (RHA) Sources: Bank of Japan, IFS (IMF) (y/y, %)
19 M - / MB M - MB M - VAR (y/y, %) (y/y, %) China M(LHA) Japan M(RHA) Sources: Bank of Japan, IFS (IMF) (y/y, %) ( /y, %) 1 US M(RHA) 1 China M(LHA) Sources: Bank of Japan, IFS (IMF) 6 (y/y, %) (y/y, %) China M(LHA) HK MB(RHA) Sources: Bank of Japan, IFS (IMF) (y/y, %) (y/y, %) China MB(LHA) HK M(RHA) Sources: Bank of Japan, IFS (IMF)
20 - October FRB QE,, QE QE QE QE QE QE QE QE QE QE T-bill MBS, Mortgage backed securities T-bill FRB QE Phase QE,,VAR.. QE. -. FRB M M MB/M QE. -. M M QE. -. MB M M
21 [QE1 Period] HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB CNM CNShare CNProd USMB.51 ** ***.9 * ** USM * ** TB1Y ** TBY 3.65 ** ***.66 * FF ***.15 ** * USShare *.73 * HKMB ** * * HKM HKIntrate * * HKShare ** CNMB CNM ** CNShare CNProd [QE Period] HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB CNM CNShare CNProd USMB USM ** TB1Y TBY FF USShare HKMB **.17 HKM HKIntrate ** HKShare * CNMB * CNM ** CNShare *..5 CNProd..7 * [QE3] HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB CNM CNShare CNProd USMB USM TB1Y TBY * FF USShare HKMB ** 3.96 * HKM HKIntrate.7 * HKShare CNMB ** CNM CNShare CNProd [BOJ QQE] HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB CNM CNShare CNProd USMB 3.53 * * ** USM.1 *** 5.39 * ** TB1Y TBY FF USShare ** HKMB.5.5 *** * HKM 1.1 ***.9 6. *** *.76.1 HKIntrate *.69 *** 1.9 HKShare ***.1.7 *** CNMB *** ** CNM CNShare * CNProd 3.73 *.53 * * QE QE Monetary base, M 1=1 [IFS] F ***, **, * IFS database (IMF), FRB,
22 - October Post QE. -. QE MB M MB M FF QE,, MB MB M M MB M M
23 USA/HK/China: Impulse Response to Monetary Base (-15) USMB USM USSHARE HKMB HKM HKSHARE CNMB Notes: Variables are logarithm based figures. Share prices are index (1=1) CNM CNSHARE USM USMB HKMB USSHARE HKM HKSHARE CNMB CNM CNSHARE 1 1=1 IFS FRB IFS IMF
24 - October. -. MB M MB MB MB M. -. BOJAC M BOJFExRes. M. -. MB QQE M MB M M MB M QQE. -. MB MB M. -. MB M
25 1.-. HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB CNM CNShare CNProd JPNMB 3.61 ** BOJAC BOJFExRes JPNM 5.6 *** Call Rate *.75 * JGBYield JPNShare * 1.19 HKMB HKM ** * HKIntrate ** 3.71 * HKShare * * *. CNMB 3.59 * * CNM ** CNShare *** 3. * 5.53 *** CNProd HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB CNM CNShare CNProd JPNMB BOJAC * ** BOJFExRes *** JPNM Call Rate.3 ** *** ** JGBYield JPNShare ** * HKMB ** * * HKM HKIntrate ** *.169. HKShare.1.3. ** CNMB CNM CNShare 6.76 *** CNProd BOJ CQE HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB CNM CNShare CNProd JPNMB * BOJAC ** BOJFExRes JPNM Call Rate * JGBYield ** JPNShare ***.756 HKMB 5.9 ** HKM HKIntrate ** HKShare CNMB *** 3. * CNM ** **.53 *.99 *.73 * CNShare *.53 *.9.36 CNProd **
26 - October BOJ QQE HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB CNM CNShare CNProd JPNMB *.533 * BOJAC *.71 * BOJFExRes JPNM Call Rate JGBYield * JPNShare HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB ** **.957 CNM CNShare * CNProd QQE (Ph.) HKMB HKM HKIntrate HKShare CNMB CNM CNShare CNProd JPNMB *** BOJAC *** * BOJFExRes *** JPNM Call Rate.933 **.6 3. * ** JGBYield Nikkei HKMB.5.5 *** * HKM 1.1 ***.9 6. *** *.76.1 HKIntrate *.69 *** 1.9 HKShare ***.1.7 ** CNMB *** *** CNM CNShare * CNProd 3.73 *.53 * * =1 [IFS] BOJFExRes. 5 IFS F ***, **, * IFS database (IMF) QQE - QQE MB M M M
27 Japan/HK/China: Impulse Response to Moneta rybase(-15) JPNMB BOJAC JPNM JPNShare HKMB HKM HKSHARE CNMB =1 IFS IFS IMF CNM CNSHARE CNSHARE CNM CNMB HKSHARE HKM HKMB JPNShare JPNM BOJAC JPNMB
28 - October. -. M M FRB
29 EU EU EU ESM ESM IMF /
30 - October VAR
31 M Rey a MB. MB GDP. GDP A G The Chinn-Ito Index A de jure measure of financial openness HP JETRO HP The Chinn-Ito Index Rey VIX FF VIX -
32 - October - - Vol. - Asia Trends, / Chinn-Ito Index A de jure measure of financial openness Helene Rey. Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium Helene Rey a. World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle, Working Paper July. Helene Rey b.the International Credit Channel and Monetary Autonomy, Mundell-Fleming Lecture at the IMF on November. JETRO Ohta, Hideaki Impact of Increasing Capital Flows on the Real Economy and Financial Markets in Japan: Ineffectiveness of Monetary Policy Instruments, Ritsumeikan Annual Review of International Studies,. vol., pp. -. Ohta, Hideaki. Evaluation of Monetary Easing Policy in Japan: Integration between the US and Japanese Markets, Working Paper Series IR -, International Studies Association of Ritsumeikan University, September,.
33 Effects of Monetary Easing Policy in the US and Japan on Emerging Economies: Challenges to Control Risks of Crises under International Capital Flows The major objective of this paper is to show the importance and significance of capital controls and management under extremely free capital flows in the global markets. Monetary easing policies, adopted by the FRB and BOJ after the Lehman Shock (Sept ), have accelerated capital flows to emerging economies. However, risks of crises in the emerging markets are increasing with any change in the outlook of the US economy which affects the timing of an expected interest rate hike by the FRB. Under completely free capital flows, almost all emerging market economies, including a large economy like that of China, are now totally dependent on the global capital flows in the world markets. Granger causality tests and impulse response functions of VAR model were used to analyze the effects and causality of capital flows between the US, Japan, Hong Kong and China, to demonstrate the influences and effects of extreme easing of monetary policy of QQE (BOJ) and QE/3 (FRB). The results show significant causality between the US /Japan and China in both monetary base and money stocks. The initiation of linkage and integration of trading between Hong Kong and Shanghai markets in November 1 triggered significant capital flows into China, which resulted in an unusual rise of stock prices that collapsed in summer 15. The experience of such a bubble and burst in China has shown that even a partial liberalization of capital account through an offshore market like Hong Kong has resulted in emergence of significant risks in the global markets and economies. It is therefore necessary and important to introduce various effective measures of capital controls and management to attain stable economic growth and stability in the global markets with less volatility in both advanced and emerging economies. OHTA, Hideaki, Professor, College of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University
34
- October. FRB ECB GIIPS Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain QE ECB QE QE FRB S T-bill QE
VAR VAR - - October. FRB ECB GIIPS Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain QE ECB QE QE FRB S T-bill QE QE FRB VAR VAR - - October Okina and Shiratsuka Baba et al. Kimura and Small, a CPI VAR VAR - FRB
-February FRB BIS IMF BIS Spillover Spillovers BIS IMF EMEs
BIS FRB BIS BIS FRB QE QE -February FRB BIS IMF BIS Spillover Spillovers BIS IMF EMEs GDP GDP........ GDP BIS, 83rd Annual Report, June 2013, p.14 Ibid., p.14. -February 1 1 2009 2013 2) 2009 2013 2) -7.6-4.0
はじめに 15 年 月の中国株価急落に始まる世界市場の低迷は 単に中国だけの問題ではなく リーマンショック以降の日米を中心とする先進国の歴史的規模の大幅金融緩和がもたらしたものと考えられる こうした市場の混乱の背景には国際資本移動が急速に拡大するなか 先進各国の歴史的低金利と金融緩和に伴う大量のマネ
先進国金融政策の新興国への影響 ~ 国際資本移動に伴うリスクと規制の課題 [ 要旨 ] 大田英明 本研究では 新興国市場の株価低迷や為替下落 特に中国市場のバブル発生と崩壊にみられるように 国際資本移動が各国経済 市場に与える影響が拡大した結果 金融市場のボラティリティが増し 株価や為替相場のみならず安定的な経済の実現を損なっていることを踏まえ 国際的な資本規制と監視 監督が一層重要となっていることを示す
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