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1 GDP 7 OFHEO % 12.0% 10.0% % 1 6.0% 4.0% % DC % OFHEOHouse Price Index The Housing Market Frenzied froth, The Economist May 28 th

2 % OFHEO Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight ODPM Office of the Deputy Prime Minister's INSEE (2004 ) PCEOECDEconomic Outlook

3

4 4 OFHEO ODPM INSEE OFHEO ODPM INSEE 4

5 CPI MBA FRB INSEE OECD

6 FF HUD GSEs MBSMortgage Backed Securities the Taxpayer Relief Act FRB ,

7 11 1, , ,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, FRBFlow of Funds Accounts of the United States SNL , FRB Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt On One-to-Four-Family Residences Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt On One-to-Four-Family Residences Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy, Finance and Economics Discussion Series ( ), Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. 7

8 2004 5, FRB 30 9 I/O I/O Interest Only Loan Negative Amortization I/O FRB Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices 6 6 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices 8

9 54 FRB I/O FRB % 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% % % % % 42.9% % FRBSenior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending PracticesJuly 2005 OCC NAR Remarks by Governor Susan Schmidt Bies, At the National Bankers Association Annual Convention, Beverly Hills, California, October 12, Survey of Credit Underwriting Practices, National Credit Committee 9

10 % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% OCC Survey of Credit Underwriting Practices OCC I/O OCC FRB OCC May 3, 2005 OCC , Accounting and Reporting for Mortgage Loan Commitments: Interagency Advisory on Accounting and Reporting for Commitments to Originate and Sell Mortgage Loans 10

11 10 8 7, , % 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 65.6% 67.1% 68.8% 69.2% 70.5% 67.9% 65.1% (10 ) 20, % 62.7% 61.8% 60.7% 18,000 16, % 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 26.8% 25.7% 24.4% 24.3% 23.5% 26.2% 22.1% 23.2% 19.1% 17.4% 25.7% 22.7% 28.1% 19.6% 31.3% 30.7% 31.8% 32.9% 15.7% 17.5% 17.0% 16.3% 14,000 12,000 10, % Q2 8,000 FRBFlow of Funds Accounts of the United States 10 12, ,200 10,000 1,000 8, , , , FRBFlow of Funds Accounts of the United States 11

12 2004 6,681 6, ,958 8,000-1,137-1,249-1, ,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000-7,000-8,000-9,000-2,141-3,001-4,160-3,895-4,752-5,197-6,681-8,000 Balance of Payments (International Transactions) International Transaction Account Data 12

13 , , National Economic Account 13 Gross Domestic Investment 2 4, Gross Saving 1 6,691 7, FRB Flows of Funds Accounts of the United States , , ,957 3,931 2,

14 % 30% % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% I 1996-I 1997-I 1998-I 1999-I 2000-I 2001-I 2002-I 2003-I 2004-I 2005-I National Economic Account FRBFlows of Funds Accounts of the United States FRB FRB ,457 4,418 1,000 4, The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit, Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke, At the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, Richmond, Virginia, March 10, JETRO

15 IMF

16 GDP GDP NIES GDP 5 ASEAN Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley

17 Foreign direct investment in the U.S , , ,468 2, UFJ OPEC OPEC Tax Haven 17

18 21 1, * , , , , ,031 1, , , GSE 20 Tax Haven Knowledge-basehttp://hunter.main.jp/IPE/OffshoreFinannceCenter.shtm 18

19 2, , , ,000 1,885 2,035 1,500 1,000 1,015 1,040 1,239 1, IMF , ,164 0 NYMEX

20 GDP % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% K FRBOFHEO FRB

21 a. b. c. FRB International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates 21 FRB Francis E. Warnock Veronica Warnock GDP ,000 IT FRB 21 Francis E. Warnock, Veronica Cacdac Warnock International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 840, September 2005 ( 21

22 26 30% 10 1,400 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, % IT , GDP

23 13.0% 12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% GDP 1995-I 1996-I 1997-I 28 GDP GDP 1998-I 1999-I 2000-I 2001-I 2002-I 2003-I 2004-I 2005-I , ISM ISM FRB , ISMInstitute of Supply Management ISM FRB Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States 23

24 ISM FRB CBO , GDP CBO GDP GDP CBOMacroeconomic and Budgetary Effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita 24

25 SAFETEA-LU 2 TEA , , GDP SAFETEA-LU 25

26 2006 CBO GDP

27 10 2, ,757 1, Personal Income and Its Disposition

28 FRB

29 SAFETEA-LU 29

30 5 2 ULIUrban Land Institute 60 DC MCI DC NIH FDA IT, DC AOLMCIDominion Semiconductor IT VA DC 30

31 Loudoun County Howard County Stafford County Spotsyhrania County Coldwell Banker Real Estate (

32 +/2 DC VA Mclean 558,650 5,865 MD Bethesda 491,440 5,160 1,313,750 NYC NJ Ridgewood 753,

33 American Community Characteristics: , , , , % 11% 2 Ranch 10 AP OFHEO %

34 37 OFHEO FRB FRB , % 32.9% FRB Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt on One-to-Four-Family Residences HEL , % % FRB % 7 9, % 11 1,420 7 HEL 12.1% SNL HEL 3,

35 I/O Interest Only Loan: Negative Amortization I/O 05 7 OCC( ) FRB RemodelingImprovement Home Depot 35

36 Mediamark Research ,523 2,885 14,776 3, , , ( 43 ) % 45~54 35~44 55~ , () U.S. Census Bureau

伝統的な経済学では、「消費は重要ではあるが、気にしなくてもよい」と考えられてきた

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