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1 km g mSv 5. 2 (0 ) 1 1 ( ( 1 1 km ) 2) () ( km) (/ km) ) 2)
2 1 ( 2) (01 1 ) 0.17[/ km] 29[/] = 5.0[/ km] = 16[/10km] WHO() IARC(International Agency for Research on Cancer) ( 1 ) 2
3 3 (2013 ) ( 2A ) 1 50g 18% 1 18% 21 (2010 ) 4 10 x l(x) 4 x = 0, 1,, 110 x = 0, 1,, 114 l(x) x = 129 x = 129 l(x) x = 111 x = WHO press release No. 240, 26/10/2015, E.pdf. Lancet Oncol, 3
4 4 21 (2010) q(x)( 5 ) l(x) = l(x 1)[1 q(x 1)]
5 [ q(x) = 1 exp {A + BC }] (ec 1)e C(x x0) 129 l(x) l(x) = l(x 1)[1 q(x 1)] A, B, C q(x) = 1 exp[ {A + (B/C)(e C 1)e C(x x 0) }] A, B, C 6 6 A, B, C A B C l(x) x 3 x (1 ) Ls(x) = l(x 2) l(x 1) l(x) + l(x + 1) l(x + 2) () x x e(x) e(x) = 129 t=x Ls(t), (x = 0, 1,, 110) l(x) 50g/ 2 2 (2012 ) 1 () 13.4g/ 50g/ 50g/ 5
6 ( ) g/ce(x) (x 19 ce(x) = 0) 50g/ 10 m(x) m(x) = l(x) l(x + 1) l(x) ce(x) (10 )dp(x) lp(x) { dp(0) = l(0)m(0) 10 5, lp(0) = l(0) lp(x) = lp(x 1) dp(x 1), dp(x) = lp(x)m(x) 10 5 (x = 1,, 110) lp(x) Lsp(x) = lp(x 2) lp(x 1) g/ lp(x) + lp(x + 1) lp(x + 2) ep(x) = 129 t=x Lsp(t), (x = 0, 1,, 110) lp(x) e(x) ep(x) x ( 8) g g S 6
7 WHO/IARC 100E 4 Taylor et al. (2007) 5 (RR) 4 IARC (2012), Personal Habits and Indoor Combustions: IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans, Vol. 100E, A Review of Human Carcinogens, pp
8 9 50g/ (:) (95%CI: ) Stayner et al. (2007) :6 ( scr/cause/smoking.html) IARC 83 (2002) (2006) (2005) 2030% (HR) 1.34(95%CI: ) 8 HR=2.03(95%CI: ) 1 20 HR 1.73( ) 20 HR=2.20( ) 30 9 HR=1.86( ) 30 HR=2.06( ) (2006) RR 16 RR=1.27(95%CI: ) 10 ()( ) RR 1.29 RR Taylor et al. (2010) 12 Wells (1998) 13 RR=1.29 RR=1.23( 5 Taylor R, Najafi F, Dobson A (2007). Meta-analysis of studies of passive smoking and lung cancer: effects of study type and continent. Int J Epidemiol, 36: doi: /ije/dym158 PMID: Stayner L, Bena J, Sasco AJ et al. (2007). Lung cancer risk and workplace exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. Am J Public Health, 97: doi: /ajph PMID: IARC pp Kurahashi, N., Inoue, M., Liu, Y. Iwasaki, M., Sasazuki, S., Sobue, T. and Tsugane, S.(2008), Passive smoking and lung cancer in Japanese non-smoking women: A prospective study. Int. J. Cancer, 122, (=20 )/ 1 ( 2 2 ) 10 Centers for Desease Control and Prevention (2006), The Health Consequences of Involuntary Exposure to Tobacco Smoke: A Report of the Surgeon General ( Fig WHO (2010) () tobacco.pdf. (2010) Taylor et al. (2010), Passive smoking and lung cancer: a cumulative meta-analysis. Aust NZJ Public Health, 25(3): Wells (1998), Heart desease from passive smoking in the workplace. JACC, 31(1):1-9, Appendix. 8
9 RR) () RR RR ( 10) RR WHO (2010) () p a p d, p w RR c a RR c d, c w p a c a 1 p a + p a c a p a (c a 1) 1 p a + p a c a p a 1 p a + p a c a 1 p a 1 p a + p a c a 1 p a p d (c d 1) 1 p a + p a c a 1 p d p w + p d c d + p w c w 1 p a p w (c w 1) 1 p a + p a c a 1 p d p w + p d c d + p w c w 1 p a 1 1 p a + p a c a 1 p d p w + p d c d + p w c w (R c ) R c = p a 1 p a p a + p a c a 1 p a + p a c a 1 p d p w + p d c d + p w c w 9
10 RR h a, h d, h w (R h ) R h = p a 1 p a p a + p a h a 1 p a + p a h a 1 p d p w + p d h d + p w h w 10 p a = p d = p w = c a = 2.79, h a = 3.35 c d = 1.29, h d = 1.23 c w = 1.14, h w = 1.35 R c = 0.762, R h = x ( 20) R c (c d 1), R h (h d 1) ce(x) (x 19 ce(x) = 0)l(x), q(x), Ls(x), e(x) ( 11 ( ) ) 2) 10
11 ) ce(x) m(x) m(x) = l(x) l(x + 1) l(x) ce(x) m(x) dp(x), lp(x), Lsp(x), ep(x) e(x) ep(x) x ce(x) ce(x) ce(x) 50g/ 18% ( 8) () (:) x x Hackshaw et al. (1997) RR 1.24 (95%CI ) 10 / 23%(95%CI:14%,36%) 10 11%(95%CI:4%,17%) () JT Hackshaw AK, Law MR, Wald NJ. The accumulated evidence on lung cancer and environmental tobacco smoke. British Medical Journal. 1997;315(7114): Kurahashi et al. (2008) 11
12 13 (HR) 1.34 ( ) 2.03( ) 1 < ( ) 1.73 ( ) ( ) 2.20 ( ) () < ( ) 1.86 ( ) ( ) 2.06 ( ) Kurahashi, N., Inoue, M., Liu, Y. Iwasaki, M., Sasazuki, S., Sobue, T. and Tsugane, S.(2008), Passive smoking and lung cancer in Japanese non-smoking women: A prospective study. Int. J. Cancer, 122, () 95% Gy() 70 (R(30, 70)) % ( R s (x, a) = αde 0.34(x 30) a ) 0.86 (1) 70 α d 1 10 (Gy)x a R l (x, a) = (1.55d d 2 )e 1.06x 0.20x t+0.02x t x t x t (2) 17 d (Gy)x 0 (x 30)/10 t t t > 30 (t 30) 3 t 30 0 d(sv) x 1mSv l(a), q(a), Ls(a), e(a) d = a(a x + 5) R s (x, a) R l (x, a) ce(x, a) m(x, a) = l(a) l(a + 1) l(a) ce(x, a) 16 Ozasa, K., Shimizu, Y., Suyama, A., Kasagi, F., Soda, M., Grant, E.J., Sakata, R., Sugiyama, H. and Kodama, K. (2012), Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors, Report 14, : An overview of cancer and noncancer diseases, Radiation Research, 177, Richardson, D., Sugiyama, H., Nishi, N., Sakata, R., Shimizu, Y., Grant, E.J., Soda, M., Hsu, W., Suyama, A., Kodama, K. and Kasagi,F. (2009), Ionizing radiation and leukemia mortality among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, , Radiation Research, 172,
13 14 ( ) 1) ) ( 02119) lp(x, a) = l(a) (a = x, x + 1,, x + 5) dp(x, x + 5) = l(x, x + 5)m(x, x + 5) 10 5 lp(x, a) = lp(x, a 1) dp(x, a 1), dp(x, a) = lp(x, a)m(x, a) 10 5 (a = x + 6,, 110) lp(x, a) Lsp(x, a) = Ls(a) (a = x, x + 1,, x + 4) Lsp(x, a) = lp(x, a 2) lp(x, a 1) + lp(x, a) + lp(x, a + 1) lp(x, a + 2) (a x + 5) x 1mSv x ep(x) = 129 t=x Lsp(x, t), (x = 0, 1,, 110) lp(x, x) e(x) ep(x) 13
14 x ( 8) mSv x x 5 (US EPA) 1.5 per (mg/kg)/day kg 1mg EPA(1995) 21 Chen et al. (1992) Chen et al. (1992) (µ/kg)/day (mg/kg)/day 3.5 per (mg/kg)/day EPA 22 EPA(2010) 18 US EPA(1995), Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Chemical Assessment Summary, Arsenic, inorganic; CASRN ( documents/documents/subst/0278 summary.pdf). 19 Tseng W.P., H.M. Chu, S.W. How, J.M. Fong, C.S. Lin, and S. Yen Prevalence of skin cancer in an endemic area of chronic arsenicism in Taiwan. J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 40(3): Tseng W.P Effects and dose-response relationships of skin cancer and Blackfoot disease with arsenic. Environ. Health Perspect. 19: Chen, C.-J., Chen, C.W., Wu, M.-M. and Kuo, T.-L. (1992), Cancer potential in liver, lung, bladder and kidney due to ingested inorganic arsenic in drinking water, Br. J. Cancer, 66: U.S. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency). (2005) Toxicological review of inorganic arsenic internal review draft. Health Effects Criteria Division. Available online at U.S. EPA (2010) Toxicological Review of Inorganic Arsenic (CAS No ) In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS). ( drafts/recordisplay.cfm?deid=219111) 14
15 (µg/kg)/day ED01 LED01 ED01, LED01 ED01 1, LED 1 ED01, LED01 17 ED01LED01 (mg/kg)/day ED LED ED LED U.S. EPA (2010) Toxicological Review of Inorganic Arsenic (CAS No ) In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), p.131. ED01 2, LED 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 ED01 1 ED01 2 LED01 1 ED01 1 LED01 2 ED01 2 ED01 1% LED01 1% 95% 95% ED01 1 ED per (mg/kg)/day 18.0 per (mg/kg)/day Chen et al. (1992) 3.5 per (mg/kg)/day ( )(2012) µg/g( 0.04µg/g 0.43µg/g) µg/g ( 0.04µg/g 0.37µg/g) (2000) (2000),, 51: µg/g 25 15
16 0.11µg/g 1 2 (300g) mg 53.3kg 1kg per mg/kg/day per mg/kg/day per mg/kg/day per mg/kg/day ( ) 1 18 per mg/kg/day per mg/kg/day (2007) 110µg/g (150g) 10g 1 ( 75g) 0.385mg(= 110[mg/kg] [kg/] 0.5[/]) 0.11[mg/kg] 0.075[kg] = [mg] 1 39 ( 18 per mg/kg/day ) 7.7 ( 3.5 per mg/kg/day ) 0.39mg/ [] 1 [/] = 30[] ( 18 per mg/kg/day ) [] 1 [/] = 5.9[] ( 3.5 per mg/kg/day ) (1996) 9(1),
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