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1 VS - 1 -
2 - 2 -
3 Simon Khaneman,Tversky
4 SIMON...19 Simon KHANEMANTVERSKY...44 KhanemanTversky DE BONDTTHALER...52 SEN URL
5 1 Varian2000pp
6 2 3 2 Varian2000pp. 3 Varian2000pp
7 ( x, x 1 2 ) f ( y, y ) 1 2 ( y, y ) f ( x, x ) X Y 1 4 X Y ) ( x, x f ( y, y ) ( y, y 1 2 ) f ( x, x ) 1 2 ( x, x 1 2 ) f ( y, y ) 1 2 ( y, y ) f ( x, x ) ( 1 2 ) 1 2 ( 1 2 ) ( 1 2 ) Varian2000pp
8 5 6 X Y Z Y Z X Varian2000 utility function ) ( x, x ) 1 2 ( y, y 1 2 ( x, x 1 2 ) ( y, y ) d ( x x ) x c x u, = ,d 5 Varian2000pp.39 6 Varian2000pp.39 7 ( x, x 1 2 ) f ( y, y ) 1 2 u( x, x ) 1 2 u( y, y )
9 ordinal utility (cardinal utility) f f 8 A B A B Varian2000pp.59 9 Varian2000pp Varian2000pp
10 Varian Varian2000pp 196 Varian K K γ KK γ. 1 γ γ γ γ = = K K K C C b g
11 12 2 u ( c c ) 1, 2, 1, 2 1 c1 c Varian2000pp u ( c1, c2, 1, 2 ) = 1c1 + 2 c2-11 -
12 ,, c c1 c2 3,, U ( c c c ) = u( c ) + u ( c ) + u ( ) 1, 2, c3 expected value u 1 ( c c, ) = c + c 1, 2, u ( c c ) = v ( c ) + v ( ) 1, 2, 1, c2 v 1 v c 2 + ( c,c 1v( c1 ) 2 v( c2 ) 1 2 ) v( c) c v( c) In c 2 ( c ) ( )
13 MRS 12 U = U ( c1, c2, c3 ) ( c, c, c ) c 1 1 u = c u 2 2 ( c1 ) c1 ( c2 ) c2 MRS
14 Sen1986 internal consistency self-interest pursuit
15 Simon(1965) Simon(1965) pp
16 16 16 Sen1989pp
17 1-17 -
18 N. McCloskey 1978 Herbert A. Simon Daniel KhanemanAmos Tversky Daniel Khaneman Amos Tversky
19 Simon Simon Simon Simon1984 SEU Simon Simon
20 18 Simon 19 Simon KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky 18 Simon1984pp Simon1984pp pp
21 Simon 21 Simon1967 Simon Simon1967pp
22 Simon Simon 22 Simon Simon 22 Simon1967pp
23 Simon 23 T ( x) = y 23 Simon1967pp
24 y ( x1, x2, x3, L, xn) = y T y y : y y y Simon 3 Simon
25 Simon search satisfying George Stigler George Stigler George Stigler Simon 24George Stigler 1965 Simon Simon Simon George Stigler Simon 24 Simon1987pp Simon1987pp Simon1987pp
26 Simon George Stigler Simon Simon 27 Simon 28 Simon 27 Simon1987pp Simon1987pp
27 4 Simon Simon1989pp
28 Simon Simon Simon Simon Simon Simon 1935 Simon Simon Simon
29 31 32 Simon 33 Simon Simon 31 Simon1991pp Simon1976pp Simon1999pp
30 5-30 -
31 - 31 -
32 pp
33
34
35 Simon 36 Simon Simon Simon1999pp pp
36 38 Simon Simon Simon Simon Simon pp
37 Simon Simon Simon Simon Simon 50 Simon pp
38 50 Simon Simon K.J. G. L.W. D K.J. L. F.H Simon Simon Simon pp pp pp
39 HallHitch pp
40 Simon Simon Simon Simon 1978 Simon Simon Simon Simon
41 Simon 46 Khaneman Tversky KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky 46 2 AB Pr { B A} Pr = { A I B} Pr{ A} = Pr Pr { B} Pr{ A B} { B} Pr{ A B} + Pr{ B} Pr{ A B} B r A Bi Pr { Bi A} { AI Bi} Pr{ A} Pr = = r Pr{ Bi} Pr{ A Bi} Pr{ Bj} Pr{ A Bj} j= 1 PrBi A pp
42 De BondtThaler Simon n 48 n n n pp pp
43 Simon 50 Simon Simon Simon
44 KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky Simon Allais Allais Ellsberg Ellsberg KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky Khaneman Tversky n = i V ( pi) v( xi) ) i (pi v( xi) x ) (pi v xi 50 ( )
45
46 3 KhanemanTversky
47 ,0.5,0.5 A D A Y X D X Y C AD B AD A D 4 AD A Y A B C D D
48 KhanemanTversky n, p p p, p, A4000,0.8B n95 C4000,0.2D 3000, n95 E 4000,0.8 F n95 25% G4000,0.8H % n141 AB B CD C C D A,0.25B,0.25 B A p B,p
49 A,p A C B D KhanemanTversky AB EF GH 25% 0.25 G C H D pp
50 Allais Ellsberg U ( ai ) = ju ( cij ) V ( j ) KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky 52 KhanemanTversky KhanemanTversky pp
51 Khaneman
52 De BondtThaler De BondtThaler KhanemanTversky De BondtThaler
53 De BondtThaler De BondtThaler
54 De BondtThaler De BondtThaler De BondtThaler De BondtThaler pp.195 CAPM R = R R R e it ft ( mt ft ) it Rit t I
55 CAPM De BondtThaler De BondtThaler R mt R ft t t e it t
56
57 pp
58 Sen Simon Sen Sen Sen 55 Sen1989pp Sen1989pp
59 Sen Sen 57 Sen Sen 57 Sen1989pp
60 Sen
61 MarwellAmes
62
63 8-63 -
64 - 64 -
65 9 Simon
66 Simon
67 2001 Hursh Economic concepts for the analysis of behavior Journal of the experimental Analysis of Behavior Hursh 1997 Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis Kagel & Winker(1972) Kagel & Winker
68 KhanemanTversky
69 19 weber-fechner, Chamberlin
70 Vernon Smith Chamberlin Vernon Smith Richard Cyert, Lester Lave 1969 The Review of Economic Studies Vernon Smith
71 Smith
72 - 72 -
73 De BondtThaler KhanemanTversky
74
75
76
77
78
79 - 79 -
80 What s New
81 - 81 -
82 URL Amartya Sen1982 ChoiceWelfare and MeasurementBasil Blackwell 1989 BarryCastroKennethWeingarten 1970Toward Experimental EconomicsThe Journal of Political Economy Volume 78 Issue Mar.-Junpp EugeneFFama1991 Efficient Capital MarketsThe Journal of Finance 12 Eugene F. Fama 1992 pp3583 DanielBell1982THE SOCIAL SCIENCES SINCE THE SECOND WORLD WARTransactionInc 1984 TBS Daniel FriedmanShyam Sunder1994Experimental Methods A primer for economistscambridge University Press 1999 DeirdreNMcCloskey1996 The Vices of Economists: The Virtues of the BourgeoisieUniv of Chicago Press N JonElster1989 THE NUTS AND BOLTS FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES Cambridge University Press 1997 Hal R Varian1999Intermediate MicroeconomicsA Modern Approach, 5 th editionwwnorton & Company662 pages 2000 HerbertASimon(1999)The Sciences of the ArtificialThe MIT Press CambridgeMassachusettsUSA A
83 1976 ADMINISTRATIVE BEHAVIOR,RD EDITION The Free PressA Division of Macmillan Publishing CoNew York A Reason in Human AffairsStandord UnivPress A Models of My LifeThe MIT PressCambridge MassachusettsUSA Jean-JacquesLaffont1985Cours de Théorie Microéconomiquevol Economie de l IncertainEconomicaParis 1992 MariluHurt McCarty2001The Nobel laureateshow the World's Greatest Economic Minds Shaped Modern Thought The McGraw-Hill CompaniesInc 2002 BP RichardHThaler1992The Winners CurseThe Free Press H 1998 ThomasHNaylor1972Experimental Economics RevisitedThe Journal of Political EconomyVolume 80 Issue Mar-Aprpp VernonLSmith1985 Experimental EconomicsReplyThe American Economic ReviewVolume 75Issue Marpp WernerFMDe BondtRichard Thaler 1985 Does the Stock Market Overreact The Journal of Finance Volume 40 Issue Papers
84 and American Finance Association Dallas Texas December Junpp Do Security Analysts Overreact The American Economic ReviewVolume 80Issue The American Economic AssociationMaypp A pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp pp
85 44 12 pp pp pp pp a 16pp b pp pp pp H.A HA 48 pp pp pp
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