s = 1.15 (s = 1.07), R = 0.786, R = 0.679, DW =.03 5 Y = 0.3 (0.095) (.708) X, R = 0.786, R = 0.679, s = 1.07, DW =.03, t û Y = 0.3 (3.163) + 0
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1 7 DW 7.1 DW u 1, u,, u (DW ) u u 1 = u 1, u,, u u 1, u,, u u 1, u,, u u 1, u,, u u +1 = u 1, u,, u Y = α + βx + u, u = ρu 1 + ɛ, H 0 : ρ = 0, H 1 : ρ 0 ɛ 1, ɛ,, ɛ = DW = (û û 1 ) û DW = DW = (û û 1 ) û = = û = ûû 1 + = û 1 û = û (û 1 + û ) = ûû 1 û û (1 ρ), = ρ, = ûû 1 = û 1 ρ û û 1 u = ρu 1 + ɛ u, u 1 û, û 1 ρ ρ 1. DW ( ρ = 0 DW ). DW 3. DW k 1 1 k DW Y X X Y X Ŷ û Y X XY X Ŷ û Y X DW = = (û û 1 ) û = ( ) + ( ) + (0.6 ( 0.7)) ( 0.8) ( 0.7) = =.03 û 1 + û û 0, Y = α + βx + u, = ûû 1 û = = ûû 1 = û 1 + û α = 0.3, β = 0.65, s α = = 3.163, = α β = 0.40, = 0.095, =.708, s β s α s β 3
2 s = 1.15 (s = 1.07), R = 0.786, R = 0.679, DW =.03 5 Y = 0.3 (0.095) (.708) X, R = 0.786, R = 0.679, s = 1.07, DW =.03, t û Y = 0.3 (3.163) (0.40) X, R = 0.786, R = 0.679, s = 1.07, DW =.03, s = 1.15 = Y = α + βx + u, = 1,,, E(u ) = 0 V(u ) = E(u ) = σ j Cov(u, u j ) = E(u u j ) = σ j û 4 β = ω Y = β + ω u X X ω = j (X j X) E( β) E( β) = E(β + ω u ) = β + ω E(u ) = β u 1, u,, u β 33
3 1: 5 % (1) k = 1 A B C D E 0 dl dl du du 4 du 4 du 4 dl 4 dl () k = A B C D E 0 dl dl du du 4 du 4 du 4 dl 4 dl (3) k = 3 A B C D E 0 dl dl du du 4 du 4 du 4 dl 4 dl (4) k = 4 A B C D E 0 dl dl du du 4 du 4 du 4 dl 4 dl (5) k = 5 A B C D E 0 dl dl du du 4 du 4 du 4 dl 4 dl A: B: C: D: E: : 5 % k = 1 k = k = 3 k = 4 k = 5 k = 6 k = 7 k = 8 k = 9 k = 10 k = 11 k = 1 k = 13 dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du k clt/bech/dwcrt.htm 34
4 V( β) V( β) = V(β + ω u ) = V( ω u ) Y = α + βx + ɛ, = E(( ω u ) ) = E(( ω u )( ω j u j )) j = E( ω ω j u u j ) j = ω ω j E(u u j ) j = ω E(u ) + ω ω j E(u u j ) j = σ σ ω + ω j σ j ω ω j j j u 1, u,, u β s s j ω ω j j j s, s j σ, σ j s ω 7.3 Y = α + βx + u, u = ρu 1 + ɛ, ω + ɛ 1, ɛ,, ɛ u (Y ρy 1 ) = α(1 ρ) + β(x ρx 1 ) + ɛ, Y = (Y ρy 1 ), X = (X ρx 1 ) ɛ 1, ɛ,, ɛ α = α(1 ρ) Y = β 1 X 1 + β X + + β k X k + u, u = ρu 1 + ɛ, ɛ 1, ɛ,, ɛ u (Y ρy 1 ) = β 1 (X 1 ρx 1, 1 ) + β (X 1 ρx, 1 ) + Y = (Y ρy 1 ), X 1 = (X 1 ρx 1, 1 ), X = (X ρx, 1 ),, X k = (X k ρx k, 1 ) Y + β k (X 1 ρx k, 1 ) + ɛ, = β 1 X 1 + β X + + β k X k + ɛ ɛ 1, ɛ,, ɛ ρ : DW DW (1 ρ) DW ρ ρ Y = (Y ρy 1 ), X 1 = (X 1 ρx 1, 1 ), X = (X ρx, 1 ),, X k = (X k ρx k, 1 ) Y = β 1 X 1 + β X + + β k X k + ɛ, 35
5 8 () 8.1 () Y = α + βx + u X Y u ( ) u 1, u,, u σ (z ) u σ z Y = α + βx + u Y = α 1 + β X + u z z z z = α 1 z + β X z + u u σ () ( ) ( ) E(u u 1 ) = E = E(u ) = 0 z u E(u ) = 0 ( ) ( ) V(u u 1 ) = V = V(u ) = σ z z z u V(u ) = σ z Y 1,, X z z z û = γz + ɛ γ γ ( t ) z u σ X X Y = α 1 + β + u X X X β () 8. Y = α + βx + u, E(u ) = 0 = 1,,, V(u ) = E(u ) = σ j Cov(u, u j ) = E(u u j ) = 0 β = ω Y = β + ω u X X ω = j (X j X) E( β) E( β) = E(β + = β + ω u ) ω E(u ) = β u 1, u,, u β V( β) V( β) = V(β + = E(( ω u ) = V( ω u ) ) ω u ) = E(( ω u )( ω j u j )) j = E( ω ω j u u j ) j = ω ω j E(u u j ) j = ω E(u ) + ω ω j E(u u j ) j j = α 1 X + β + u = σ ω σ ω 36
6 u 1, u,, u β s ω s σ s ω 9 Y = αw + βx + u W, X Y u W = 1 α W X W X α, β W X 1 ( ) W = γx Y = αw + βx + u = (αγ + β)x + u αγ + β α, β Y = αw + βx + u αγ + β α, β α, β u = (Y αw βx ) α, β α, β u α = (Y αw βx )W = 0 Y W α W β X W = 0 Y X α W X β X = 0 ( ) ( Y W W ) ( ) = X W Y X W X X α β α, β ( ) ( W ) 1 ( ) = X W Y W α β W X X Y X ( ) = α β 1 ( W )( X ) ( W X ) ( X X W W X W ) ( ) Y W Y X (W = γx ) ( W )( X ) ( W X ) = 0 ( ) ( ) V( α) Cov( α, β) V = α β Cov( α, β) V( β) ( W ) 1 = σ X W W X X σ = W )( X ) ( W X ) ( X ) X W W X W W = 1 W = 0X = 1 X = 0 W X r (W w)(x X) r = (W W ) (X X) u β = (Y αw βx )X = 0 W X = W X 37
7 r V( α)v( β) V( α) = V( β) = σ X ( W )( X ) ( W X ) σ = (1 r ) W σ W ( W )( X ) ( W X ) σ = (1 r ) X r 1 1 (r 1 )V( α)v( β) = = W X Y β + β 3 = 1 H 0 : β + β 3 = 1 H 1 : β + β Y = α + βx + γd + δd X + u, D = { 0, = 1,,, 0 1, = 0 + 1, 0 +,, H 0 : γ = δ = 0 H 1 : γ 0δ (R R ) t 3. () F F Q K L log(q ) = β 1 + β log(k ) + β 3 log(l ) + u, 3 Y = α + βx + γz + u, X Z Y H 0 : β = γ = 0 H 1 : β 0γ U χ ()V χ (m)u V F = U/ F (, m) V/m 38
8 10.3 Y = β 1 X 1 + β X + + β k X k + u, β 1, β,, β k G û ũ H 0 : β k G+1 = = β k = 0 H 1 : H 0 Y = β 1 X 1 + β X + + β k G X k G, + β k G+1 X k G+1, + + β k X k + u, û () Y = β 1 X 1 + β X + + β k G X k G, + u, ũ () ũ 1. H 0 û χ (G) ( ) û. χ ( k) () σ ũ 3. û () σ σ 4. ( ũ û )/G û /( k) () û σ 1 F (G, k), log(q ) = β 1 + β log(k ) + β 3 log(l ) + u, β + β 3 = 1 log( Q L ) = β 1 + β log( K L ) + u, Y = α + βx + γd + δd X + u, γ = δ = 0 Y = α + βx + u, 3 Y = α + βx + γz + u, β = γ = 0 Y = α + u, (Y ) (C). C = α + βy () 3. α β 4. α () β 1 5. α, β 6. C Y () ( ) 39
9 1: () () : C Y. 3. () 4. = ( = /100 ) C Y
10 C = α + βy + u, u N(0, σ ), u C = ( ) ( ) Y, R =.99406, R =.9910, s = , DW =.89838, 1. α β α, β α, β (a) 7 7 = 5 (b) α = 0.05 t α/ (5) =.060α = 0.01 t α/ (5) =.787 (c) 0.05 H 0 : α = 0H 1 : α = < t 0.05(5) =.060, 0.05 H 0 : β = 0H 1 : β = > t 0.05(5) =.060, (d) α β (e) β > 0 β < 1 H 0 : β = 1H 1 : β 1 () (f) (g) = 3. s = u σ () 4. R = DW = 7, k = 5% dl = 1.3, du = % (a) DW < 1.3 (b) 1.3 DW < 1.47 (c) 1.47 DW <.53 (d).53 DW <.68 (e).68 DW DW = = = t(5) () C = α + βy + u, u = ρu 1 + ɛ, ɛ ρ ρ DW ρ = 1 DW = = C = C ρc 1, Y = Y ρy 1, 41
11 C = α + βy + ɛ, ɛ N(0, σ ɛ ), α = α(1 ρ) C = (183.63) (.05401) Y, R =.988, R = , s = 3.08, DW = , = 4. α α = α 1 ρ = β α α α α = > t 0.05(4) =.064, α 4. α β = 17.5 > t 0.05(4) =.064, 7. s = 3.08 ɛ σ ɛ () 8. R = R = ( ) 9. DW DW < 1.47 = = Stata tsset year tme varable: year, 1970 to 1996 delta: 1 ut. ge ryd=yd/(pcos/100). ge rcos=cos/(pcos/100). reg rcos ryd Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 1, 5) = Model e e+10 Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total e e+09 Root MSE = 4557 rcos Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] ryd _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc(, 7) = ge rho=1-0.5* ge drcos=rcos-rho*l.rcos (1 mssg value geerated). ge dryd=ryd-rho*l.ryd (1 mssg value geerated). reg drcos dryd Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 1, 4) = 61.9 Model e e+09 Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total e Root MSE = 77.9 drcos Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] 4
12 dryd _cos DRCONS = RCONS ρ RCONS 1 DRY = RY ρ RY 1 ( ρ = 1.5DW = ) 11. 1kg 1kg 1g 100g 1g 100g () Q 1 P 1 Q P Q 3 P 3 E ( 16 )() ( 16 )() 43
13 Q 1 = (8.89) (0.9) (9.35) P (5.57) E (4.39) P 3 P 1 s = 6.86, R = 0.93, R = 0.917, DW = 1.53 Q = (13.9) (11.4) (4.6) P 15.5 (1.51) E (0.91) P 3 P 1 s = 685.1, R = 0.931, R = 0.915, DW = Q 3 = (16.9) 48.8 (1.04) (0.67) P (5.3) E (5.40) P 3 P 1 s = 515.7, R = 0.885, R = 0.860, DW = log Q 1 = 70.9 (10.4) (0.06) 5.35 (10.4) log P +.68 (6.46) log E (4.53) log P 3 log P 1 s = 0.048, R = 0.949, R = 0.937, DW = log Q = 4.35 (1.88) (10.9) (4.33) log P (1.31) log E (1.1) log P 3 log P 1 s = 0.016, R = 0.931, R = 0.916, DW = log Q 3 = 14.5 (6.87) 0.05 (0.7) (1.19) log P 0.68 (5.30) log E (5.51) log P 3 log P 1 s = 0.015, R = 0.883, R = 0.856, DW = () log Q 1 = 70.9 (10.9) +.67 (7.69) 5.36 (11.) log P 3 log E (5.3) log P 1 s = 0.047, R = 0.949, R = 0.941, DW = 1.74 log Q 3 = 14.7 (7.4) (6.49) 0.00 (1.35) log P 3 log E (6.45) log P 1 s = 0.014, R = 0.88, R = 0.863, DW = 1.1 Stata tsset year tme varable: year, 198 to 004 delta: 1 ut. ge re=e/p. ge rp1=p1/p. ge rp=p/p. ge rp3=p3/p. reg q1 re rp1 rp rp3 Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 4, 18) = 6.3 Model Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total Root MSE = 6.89 q1 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] re rp rp rp _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 5, 3) = reg q re rp1 rp rp3 Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 4, 18) = 60.6 Model Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total Root MSE = q Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] re rp rp rp _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 5, 3) = reg q3 re rp1 rp rp3 Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 4, 18) = 34.8 Model Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total Root MSE = q3 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] 44
14 re rp rp rp _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 5, 3) = ge lq1=log(q1). ge lq=log(q). ge lq3=log(q3). ge lre=log(re). ge lrp1=log(rp1). ge lrp=log(rp). ge lrp3=log(rp3). reg lq1 lre lrp1 lrp lrp3 Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 4, 18) = 84.4 Model Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total Root MSE = lq1 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] lre lrp lrp _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 4, 3) = reg lq3 lre lrp1 lrp3 Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 3, 19) = Model Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total Root MSE = lq3 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] lre lrp lrp _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 4, 3) = lq1 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] lre lrp lrp lrp _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 5, 3) = reg lq lre lrp1 lrp lrp Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 4, 18) = Model Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total Root MSE =.0163 lq Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] lre lrp lrp lrp _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 5, 3) = reg lq3 lre lrp1 lrp lrp3 Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 4, 18) = Model Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total Root MSE = lq3 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] lre lrp lrp lrp _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 5, 3) = reg lq1 lre lrp1 lrp3 Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 3, 19) = Model Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total Root MSE =
15 _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 3, 08) = reg kabu exrate r l.kabu Source SS df MS Number of obs = F( 3, 03) =. Model.4997e e+09 Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total.5090e Root MSE = kabu Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] exrate r kabu L _cos Kabu = (.58) (8.7) ExRate (51.7) s = 309.9, R = 0.570, R = 0.570, DW = 0.01 Kabu =.36 (0.03) (48) Kabu (0.31) ExRate (1.96) R R + s = 14.8, R = 0.996, R = 0.996, DW =.100 Kabu = 8.11 (0.119) (0.173) ExRate 0.86 (0.070) s = 15.1, R = , R = , DW =.106 Stata ge tme=_. tsset tme tme varable: tme, 1 to 08 delta: 1 ut. reg kabu exrate r Source SS df MS Number of obs = F(, 05) = Model e e+09 Prob > F = Resdual e R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total.513e Root MSE = kabu Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] exrate r R Durb-Watso d-statstc( 4, 07) = reg dkabu exrate r f t(,08) Source SS df MS Number of obs = F(, 04) = 0.0 Model Prob > F = Resdual R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total Root MSE = dkabu Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Cof. Iterval] exrate r _cos Durb-Watso d-statstc( 3, 07) = () x 1, x,, x X 1, X,, X E(X ) = µv(x ) = σ (µ, σ ) x 1, x,, x µ m µ (x µ) µ µ µ = 1 x µ x 46
16 d (x µ) = 0 dµ µ µ x X µ = 1 X µ X ( µ ) (Y α βx ) m α,β (Y α βx ) = 0 α (Y α βx ) = 0 β α, β 1. X 1, X,, X f(x) f(x; θ) θ θ = (µ, σ ) X 1, X,, X f(x 1, x,, x ; θ) f(x ; θ) x 1, x,, x f(x ; θ) θ l(θ) = f(x ; θ) l(θ) max θ l(θ) θ θ = θ(x 1, x,, x ) x 1, x,, x X 1, X,, X θ = θ(x 1, X,, X ) max θ max θ l(θ) log l(θ) θ log l(θ) θ N(θ, σ θ) σθ 1 = [( d log E f(x ; θ) ) ] dθ 1 = [ d E log f(x ; θ) ] dθ θ (k 1) θ N(θ, Σ θ ) ( [( log f(x ; θ) )( log f(x ; θ) ) ]) 1 Σ θ = E θ θ ( [ log f(x ; θ) = E θ θ ]) 1 47
17 1 N(µ, σ ) x 1, x,, x (1) σ µ () σ µ σ N(µ, σ ) f(x; µ, σ 1 ( ) = exp 1 (x µ)) πσ σ X 1, X,, X f(x 1, x,, x ; µ, σ ) = f(x ; µ, σ ) 1 ( exp 1 πσ σ (x µ) ) = (πσ ) exp ( 1 σ (x µ) ) (1) σ l(µ) l(µ) = (πσ ) exp ( 1 σ (x µ) ) l(µ) µ log l(µ) µ log l(µ) = log(πσ ) 1 σ d log l(µ) dµ = 1 σ (x µ) = 0 (x µ) µ µ µ µ µ = 1 x x x 1, x,, x X 1, X,, X µ µ = 1 X X µ log f(x ; µ) = 1 log(πσ ) 1 σ (X µ) d log f(x ; µ) = 1 dµ σ (X µ) ( d log f(x ; µ) ) 1 = dµ σ 4 (X µ) [( d log f(x ; µ) ) ] E = 1 dµ σ 4 E[(X µ) ] = 1 σ µ N(µ, σ µ) σ µ = 1 [( d log E f(x ; µ) ) ] = σ dµ µ N(µ, σ µ) () σ µ σ ( l(µ, σ ) = (πσ ) exp 1 σ (x µ) ) log l(µ, σ ) = log(π) log σ 1 σ (x µ) µ σ log l(µ, σ ) µ = 1 σ (x µ) = 0 log l(µ, σ ) σ = 1 σ + 1 σ 4 (x µ) = 0 48
18 µ, σ µ, σ µ = 1 σ = 1 x x (x µ) 1 (x x) x 1, x,, x X 1, X,, X µ, σ µ = 1 σ = 1 X X (X µ) 1 (X X) σ σ σ S = 1 (X X) 1 θ = (µ, σ ) θ N(θ, Σ θ ) ( [ log f(x ; θ) Σ θ = E θ θ ]) 1 log f(x ; θ) θ θ log f(x ; θ) log f(x ; θ) µ = µ σ log f(x ; θ) log f(x ; θ) σ µ (σ ) ( 1 = σ 1 σ 4 (X ) µ) 1 σ 4 (X 1 µ) σ 4 1 σ 6 (X µ) [ log f(x ; θ) ] E θ θ ( 1 = σ 1 σ 4 E(X ) µ) 1 σ 4 E(X 1 µ) σ 4 1 σ 6 E[(X µ) ] ( 1 ) = σ σ 4 ( [ log f(x ; θ) ]) 1 Σ θ = E θ θ σ 0 = σ 4 0 µσ µ = (1/) X σ = (1/) (X X) ( ) ( ( ) σ ) µ µ 0 σ N σ, σ 4 0 log f(x ; θ) = 1 log(π) 1 log(σ ) 1 σ (X µ) log f(x ; θ) θ = = log f(x ; θ) µ log f(x ; θ) σ ( 1 σ (X µ) 1 σ + 1 σ 4 (X µ) ) X 1, X,, X p X f(x; p) = p x (1 p) 1 x x = 0, 1 l(p) = f(x ; p) = p x (1 p) 1 x 49
19 log l(p) = log f(x ; p) = log(p) x + log(1 p) (1 x ) = log(p) x + log(1 p)( x ) log l(p) p d log l(p) = 1 x 1 dp p 1 p ( x ) = 0 p p p p = 1 x x X p p p = 1 X p log f(x ; p) = X log(p) + (1 X ) log(1 p) d log f(x ; p) dp [( d log f(x ; p) ) ] E dp E[(X p) ] = = X p 1 X 1 p = X p p(1 p) = = E[(X p) ] p (1 p) 1 (x p) f(x ; p) x =0 1 (x p) p x (1 p) 1 x x =0 = p (1 p) + (1 p) p = p(1 p) 1 [( d log E f(x ; p) ) ] = dp p N ( p, p(1 p) ) p(1 p) 3 X 1, X,, X λ X f(x; λ) = λx e λ x! l(λ) = f(x ; λ) = log l(λ) = x = 0, 1,, λ x e λ log f(x ; λ) = log(λ) x! x λ log l(λ) p d log l(λ) dλ = 1 λ x = 0 log(x!) λ λ λ λ = 1 x x X λ λ λ = 1 X λ log f(x ; λ) = X log(λ) λ log(x!) d log f(x ; λ) dλ d log f(x ; λ) dλ = X λ 1 = X λ ( d log f(x ; λ) ) E dλ = E(X ) λ 50
卒業論文
Y = ax 1 b1 X 2 b2...x k bk e u InY = Ina + b 1 InX 1 + b 2 InX 2 +...+ b k InX k + u X 1 Y b = ab 1 X 1 1 b 1 X 2 2...X bk k e u = b 1 (ax b1 1 X b2 2...X bk k e u ) / X 1 = b 1 Y / X 1 X 1 X 1 q YX1
AR(1) y t = φy t 1 + ɛ t, ɛ t N(0, σ 2 ) 1. Mean of y t given y t 1, y t 2, E(y t y t 1, y t 2, ) = φy t 1 2. Variance of y t given y t 1, y t
87 6.1 AR(1) y t = φy t 1 + ɛ t, ɛ t N(0, σ 2 ) 1. Mean of y t given y t 1, y t 2, E(y t y t 1, y t 2, ) = φy t 1 2. Variance of y t given y t 1, y t 2, V(y t y t 1, y t 2, ) = σ 2 3. Thus, y t y t 1,
80 X 1, X 2,, X n ( λ ) λ P(X = x) = f (x; λ) = λx e λ, x = 0, 1, 2, x! l(λ) = n f (x i ; λ) = i=1 i=1 n λ x i e λ i=1 x i! = λ n i=1 x i e nλ n i=1 x
80 X 1, X 2,, X n ( λ ) λ P(X = x) = f (x; λ) = λx e λ, x = 0, 1, 2, x! l(λ) = n f (x i ; λ) = n λ x i e λ x i! = λ n x i e nλ n x i! n n log l(λ) = log(λ) x i nλ log( x i!) log l(λ) λ = 1 λ n x i n =
* n x 11,, x 1n N(µ 1, σ 2 ) x 21,, x 2n N(µ 2, σ 2 ) H 0 µ 1 = µ 2 (= µ ) H 1 µ 1 µ 2 H 0, H 1 *2 σ 2 σ 2 0, σ 2 1 *1 *2 H 0 H
1 1 1.1 *1 1. 1.3.1 n x 11,, x 1n Nµ 1, σ x 1,, x n Nµ, σ H 0 µ 1 = µ = µ H 1 µ 1 µ H 0, H 1 * σ σ 0, σ 1 *1 * H 0 H 0, H 1 H 1 1 H 0 µ, σ 0 H 1 µ 1, µ, σ 1 L 0 µ, σ x L 1 µ 1, µ, σ x x H 0 L 0 µ, σ 0
1 (Berry,1975) 2-6 p (S πr 2 )p πr 2 p 2πRγ p p = 2γ R (2.5).1-1 : : : : ( ).2 α, β α, β () X S = X X α X β (.1) 1 2
2005 9/8-11 2 2.2 ( 2-5) γ ( ) γ cos θ 2πr πρhr 2 g h = 2γ cos θ ρgr (2.1) γ = ρgrh (2.2) 2 cos θ θ cos θ = 1 (2.2) γ = 1 ρgrh (2.) 2 2. p p ρgh p ( ) p p = p ρgh (2.) h p p = 2γ r 1 1 (Berry,1975) 2-6
21 2 26 i 1 1 1.1............................ 1 1.2............................ 3 2 9 2.1................... 9 2.2.......... 9 2.3................... 11 2.4....................... 12 3 15 3.1..........
ii 3.,. 4. F. (), ,,. 8.,. 1. (75%) (25%) =7 20, =7 21 (. ). 1.,, (). 3.,. 1. ().,.,.,.,.,. () (12 )., (), 0. 2., 1., 0,.
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第86回日本感染症学会総会学術集会後抄録（I）
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