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1

2 GDP

3 GDP GDP M2+CDs k = M/Y (1) M M2+CD Y GDP

4 Md k P T (Y ) (2) P GDP GDP GDP T GDP monetary policy rule 3

5 = + + α ) + β (3) + + (4) = λ (5)

6 [2001] M R I P Y Y(GDP) Y 5

7 M( ) M Y F Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability M does not Granger Cause I I does not Granger Cause M P does not Granger Cause I I does not Granger Cause P R does not Granger Cause I I does not Granger Cause R Y does not Granger Cause I I does not Granger Cause Y E-08 P does not Granger Cause M M does not Granger Cause P R does not Granger Cause M M does not Granger Cause R Y does not Granger Cause M M does not Granger Cause Y E-12 R does not Granger Cause P P does not Granger Cause R Y does not Granger Cause P P does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause Y ;Pairwise Granger Causality Tests,Sample: 1985:3 2005:3,Lags: 2 I2 II2 M2 MM2 6

8 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability II2 does not Granger Cause I I2 does not Granger Cause II M2 does not Granger Cause I I2 does not Granger Cause M MM2 does not Granger Cause I I2 does not Granger Cause MM M2 does not Granger Cause II II2 does not Granger Cause M MM2 does not Granger Cause II II2 does not Granger Cause MM MM2 does not Granger Cause M M2 does not Granger Cause MM ;Pairwise Granger Causality Tests,Sample: 1985:3 2005:3,Lags:

9 R R R i i R R R R R

10 M M i i

11 6 LM LM LM LM IS ( ) + (6) (7) 10

12 7 7.1 / /

13 Svensson[1997,1999] Consensus Economics Inc

14 7.3.3 [2000] [2000] + + = [2000] 10 13

15

16 [1999] [2000] [2001] / [2003] [2003] [2000] [2004] [1993] [2005.8] [2000] [2001] [2000] [1998] HP

1 911 9001030 9:00 A B C D E F G H I J K L M 1A0900 1B0900 1C0900 1D0900 1E0900 1F0900 1G0900 1H0900 1I0900 1J0900 1K0900 1L0900 1M0900 9:15 1A0915 1B0915 1C0915 1D0915 1E0915 1F0915 1G0915 1H0915 1I0915

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