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1 Key Words: probabilisic scenario earthquake, active fault data, Great Hanshin earthquake, low frequency-high impact earthquake motion, seismic hazard map

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12 3) Cornell, C. A.: Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 58, No. 5, pp , ) Der Kiureghian, A. and Ang, A. H-S.: A Fault Rupture Model for Seismic Risk Analysis, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 67, No. 4, pp , pp , ) Ishikawa, Y. and Kameda, H.: Probability-based Determination of Specific Scenario Earthquakes, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Seismic Zonation (4ICSZ), Vol. II, pp. 3-10, ) Ishikawa, Y. and Kameda, H.: Scenario Earthquake vs Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Structural Safety and

13 Reliability (ICOSSAR'93), Vo1. 3, pp , ) Matsuda, T.: Active Faults and Damaging Earthquakes 13) US-NRC: Characterization of Seismic Sources and Determination of Safe Shutdown Earthquake Ground Motions, Draft Regulatory Guide DG-1032, ) Prof. Cornell, C. A. O)LTa, ) McGuire, R. K.: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Design Earthquakes: Closing the Loop, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 85, No. 5, pp , ) Boissonnade, A., Chokshi, N., Bernreuter, D. and Murphy, A.: Determination of Controlling Earthquakes from Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Nuclear Reactor Sites, Transactions of the 13th international Conference on Structural Mechnics in Reactor Technology (SMiRT 13), Vol. 4, pp , ) Fukushima, Y. and Tanaka, T. A New Attenuation Relation for Peak Horizontal Acceleration of Strong Earthquake Ground Motion in Japan, Shimizu Technical Research Bulletin, No. 10, pp. 1-11, in Japan-Macroseismic Zoning and Precaution Fault Zones, Maurice Ewing Ser., Vol. 4, Am. Geophys. Union, pp , ) Kawasumi, H.: Measures of Earthquake Danger and Expectancy of Maximum Intensity Throughout Japan as Inferred from the Seismic Activity, Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, Vol. 29, pp , ) Annaka, T. and Nozawa, Y.: A Probabilistic Model for Seismic Hazard Estimation in the Kanto District, Proc. of 9th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 11, pp , PROBABILISTIC SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES DEFINITION AND ENGINEERING APPLICATIONS Hiroyuki KAMEDA, Yutaka ISHIKAWA, Toshihiko OKUMURA and Masato NAKAJIMA An idea of probabilistic scenario earthquakes (PSE) is proposed and its engineering applications are described. PSE is developed by establishing a link between probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and scenario earthquakes, and makes it possible to objectively determine the scenario earthquakes corresponding to the specific risk level. The procedure of determining PSE and several case studies of PSE, which include the examples for major cities in Japan and the seismic hazard maps in terms of PSE, are shown in this study. In particular, the case study for Kobe demonstrates that the PSE can be applied to the evaluation of the "low frequency-high impact seismic event" such as Great Hanshin earthquake of 1995.

SEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATION BASED ON ACTIVE FAULT DATA AND HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE DATA By Hiroyuki KAMEDA and Toshihiko OKUMURA A method is presented for using historical earthquake data and active fault

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