IT 投資は日本経済を活性化させるか－JIP データベースを利用した国際比較と実証分析－.PDF

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1 ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.41 IT JIP by June 2003 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan

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5 (Abstract) Though the Japanese government has established several economic policies concerning the promotion of IT investment (including investment tax credit (ITC) from 2003 FY), there are few academic papers on IT investment in Japan. It is thus important to analyze empirically which factors affect IT investment and how ITC increases IT investment. Using the JIP (Japan Industry Productivity) database made by the project team on potential growth at ESRI (Economic and Social Research Institute), our paper investigates several phases of IT investment in Japan. Trends on IT investment in Japan and other OECD countries are examined and IT investment functions are estimated by using panel data model and the instrumental variable method. The amount of IT investment in Japan is not so low when we compare it with that in the United States and other OECD countries. However, especially in the communications industry, the amount of IT investment in Japan is much less than that in the U.S. As for software investment in Japan, in-house software has stagnated since the first half of 1990 due to downsizing and outsourcing. The estimation results on investment function show that: 1) Coefficient on cost of capital is significantly negative, which means ITC is effective. 2) Coefficient on spillover effect is significantly positive, which means that an increase in IT investment in a specific industry stimulates IT investment in other industries. 3) Estimated increment on IT investment via ITC in 2003 is about 1 to 2 trillion yen. The results show that tax reduction, a demand-stimulating policy, increases IT investment via the decline of the cost of capital. However, in the long run, it is also important to determine whether IT investment contributes to increased productivity and growth of the economy. Both a demand-side and a supply-side analysis should be carried out to clarify the full significance of IT investment.

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7 1 IT IT 1 IT IT 2000 IT IT IT e-japan 2003 IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT Mun and Nadiri (2002) IT IT IT IT IT IT IT 1980 Solow1987 IT 90 IT Jorgenson 2001, Jorgenson and Stiroh Economic Report of the President IT OECD IT 1 OECD ITInformation Technology ICTInformation and Communication Technology IT Nordhaus(2002) 2003 IT IT 1

8 Schreyer2000,Pilat and Lee 2001, Colecchia and Schreyer 2002 IT IT IT IT Jorgenson2001 Lichtenberg 1995Brynjolfson and Hitt Matsudaira Miyagawa et al.2002 IT IT IT IT IT 2003 IT IT IT 2002 IT IT JIPJapan Industry Productivity IT JIP SNA ( 2 ) IT JIP BEABureau of Economic Analysis IT 3 IT IT R&D IT IT IT IT

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13 IT 9 IT GDP IT Colecchia and Schreyer2002OECD JIP 93SNA IT IT 3IT 31 JIP IT I it = const + a1ccit + a2yit + a3rcom it + a4 ITSPit + a5. RD + ε (1) it it I IT LNIT 2 Jorgenson(1963)Hall and Jorgenson(1967) (K*) Y K* = γ (2) CC γ 2 7

14 JIP CC it 1 z p it IT, it = { λitr + (1 uit)(1 λit) i + δ 1 u P it y, it i p ( p. IT, it IT, it )} (3) z u p IT IT λ r i δit Y JIP RCOM JIP IT IT ITSP p ITSP OW ji i = = j i D j i OW ji D ji ji KIT j 3 (3 Dji j i (3) IT 11 IT KIT IT IT IT ITSPF ITSPS R&D RD JIP RD θ t = Rt s + ( 1 ) RDt 1 11 (3) R&D Wolff and Nadiri (1993)IT Mun and Nadiri(2002) 8

15 (4) RD R&D Rt-s t-s θ s s=0 JIP 2003 (4) R&D LNRD R&D 12 (1) Jorgenson IT IT R&D IT JIP (1) R&D 4 Fixed Effect Model Random Effect Model Hausman Fixed Effect Model Fixed Effect Model CC LNCC RCOMIT ITSPFITSPS (3) IT IT IT IT 12 JIP 9

16 13 IT IT IT IT IT Jorgenson IT R&D IT ITSPS 13 IT 2002Miyagawa et al.(2002) IT

17 IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT 34 IT PROFIT JIP 7 7 IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT 11

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19 IT IT IT IT IT 1998 IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT 4 JIP IT IT IT JIP IT 13

20 IT OECD IT 2003 IT IT IT IT IT IT IT R&D IT 2003 IT IT % 8.5% IT IT Colecchia and Schreyer2002 IT IT 14

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26 KS IS1971 = g + δ 1970 IS

27 2001IT IT IT IT Vol Jordan 1998 IT FRI IT RIETI Discussion Paper Series 02-J-018 Brynjolfsson, E and L. Hitt (1996), Paradox Lost? Firm-level Evidence on the Returns to Information Systems Spending, Management Science 42, Colecchia, A. and P. Schreyer (2002), ICT Investment and Economic Growth in the 1990s: Is the United States a Unique Case? Review of Economic Dynamics 5, Hall, Robert and Dale Jorgenson (1967), Tax Policy and Investment Behavior, American Economic Review 57, Jorgenson, D. W. (1963), Capital Theory and Investment Behavior, American Economic Review, 53, Jorgenson, D. W. (2001), Information Technology and the US Economy, American Economic Review 91,

28 Jorgenson, D. W. and Stiroh K. J. (2000), Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Litchenberg, F. R. (1995), The Output Contribution of Computer Equipment and Personnel: A Firm-level Analysis, Economics of Innovation and New Technology 3, Matsudaira, J. (2000), Information Technology, Performance and Productivity, Fujitsu Research Institute Discussion Paper, No Miyagawa, T, Y. Ito and N. Harada (2002), Does the IT Revolution Contribute to Japanese Economic Growth? JCER Discussion Paper No. 75. Mun, S. and M. Nadiri (2002), Information Technology Externalities: Empirical Evidence from 42 U. S. Industries, NBER Working Paper No Nordhaus, W. (2002), The Recent Recession, the Current Recovery, and Stock Prices, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, pp Pilat, D. and F. Lee (2001), Productivity Growth in ICT-producing and ICT-using Industries. A Source of Growth Differentials in the OECD? STI Working Paper, OECD. Schreyer, P. (2000), The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries, STI Working Paper OECD. Solow, R. (1987), We d Better Watch Out, New York Times Book Review, July 12. Wolff, E. and M. Nadiri (1993), Spillover Effects, Linkage Structure and Research and Development, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 4, pp

産業・企業レベルデータで見た日本の経済成長.pdf

産業・企業レベルデータで見た日本の経済成長.pdf 2003 11 10 IT IT JIP JCER ) 2003 CD-ROM http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/bun/bun170/170index. html 1 JIP Jorgenson, Mun, andstiroh (2002) GDP 2 3 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981