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1 Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 The future business environment : trends, trade-offs and choices 1 1

2 Davos 3 2 People and Connections Global Scenario to 2020 Public Summary 3 2

3 The Sarbanes-Oxley Act nation states 2.3 3

4 Driving force Les forces motorices de macroenvironnement 4

5 Utopia 1984 Dystopia 5

6 Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags Flags 6

7 Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Da Wo 7 predetermined trends 7

8 % SEC US GAAP Generally Accepted Accounting Principles 8 IOSCO SEC 13 EU WalMart GM Motorola 8 8

9 Nation State Market State UNAIDS AIDS in Africa: Three scenarios 9 Class Action 9

10 to % Flags, Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors Low Trust Globalisation Low Trust Globalisation 10 UNAIDS/04.52 English original, January Curse of oil 12 relinking of energy consumption and economic growth

11 4.1 Low Trust Globalisation EU EU M&A US GAAP

12 NGO CSR Low Trust Globalisation 4.3 Low Trust Globalisation Glaxo coalitions of the willing Low Trust Globalisation 4.5 Low Trust Globalisation EU

13 4.6 Low Trust Globalisation Law as the Business R&D Low Trust Globalisation 13

14 4.7 Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Open Doors 5.1 MIT

15 Open Doors 5.2 Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors 2003 WTO EU BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2025 Nation State Market State 15 EU ASEAN+ NAFTA WTO Open Doors EU G S

16 Open Doors EU EU EU EU 1000 Open Doors 5.3 Public-Private Partnership 5.4 Open Doors win-win NGO EU Open Doors 16

17 5.5 Open Doors Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors NGO EU EU Open Doors 5.5 Open Doors Open Doors % 4.0 EU 2.8 Open Doors 17

18 5.6 Open Doors NGO NGO EU 5.7 Open Doors Open Doors ppm GEM (Global Environmental Mechanism) Flags Flags Flags Flags 18

19 6.1 Flags EU 6.2 Flags WTO 6.3 Flags 6.4 Flags Flags 19

20 Flags 6.5 Flags Flags Flags BRICs Flags Flags Low Trust Globalisation Flags Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors NGO Open Doors NGO Flags NGO 20

21 6.7 Flags Flags 2005 CNOOC Flags Open Doors Flags Flags LNG 21

22 7.1 (exploratory scenarios)

23 Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors, Flags 3E 23

24 Jet Stream Weather System (Scenarios : An Explorer s Guide 2003) 24

25 Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags 7.3 Jeroen van der Veer Enterprise First 19 (Cultural Change) 19 Our external stakeholders view the Group as a single entity we must do the same. That means simplifying and standardising what we do; it means avoiding actions that maximise the profits of one part of the business while adding costs elsewhere; it means sharing expertise and resources across the Group; and it means having an external mindset. ( Shell World October 2004 ) 25

26 20 Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors, Flags Enterprise First Royal Dutch Shell plc Within Shell, I think the imperative is to use this tool to gain deeper insights into our global business environment and to achieve the cultural change that is at the heart of our Group strategy. We face real challenges in the future, we will all need to be able to respond to changing circumstances and make informed and rigorous judgement about our decisions: these scenarios and methodology will help us to do that better. 26

中国市場における日系・欧米系企業の戦略比較

中国市場における日系・欧米系企業の戦略比較 No.24 2002 7 Abstract In this paper, I review the trade conflict between Japan and China, which happened in 2001. The import 3 list of articles (car, portable telephone, air conditioner) from Japan to