LCC LCC INOUE, Gaku TANSEI, Kiyoteru KIDO, Motohiro IMAMURA, Takahiro LCC 7 LCC Ryanair 1 Ryanair Number of Passengers 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,

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1 LCC LCC INOUE, Gaku TANSEI, Kiyoteru KIDO, Motohiro IMAMURA, Takahiro 1 23 LCC 7 LCC Ryanair 1 Ryanair Number of Passengers 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Barrett Ryanair Hess and Adler 2 Stated Choice Surveys Willingness to pay LCC LCC LCC LCC 3 Vol.16 No Summer

2 Takebayashi 8 Tuba 9 TubaEU-ETS 18 Tuba Tuba EU-ETS 1 LCC 11 5 Takebayashi 8 Barbot LCC Fu et al LCC Pels 1 Murakami DB1ALCC LCC Murakami LCC 2 LCC LCC 1 LCC LCC Vol.16 No Summer 31

3 XA XB YA 2.2 ij kx ij, k 1 2 Pr k k OD ij ij R i j ij U r k k kod JAL ANA U r k kx ij, k 2.3 Bertrand Model a a 3 L aal Paal l xaal l C x l a aal 3 Pa l MC aal l C x l a a Nash Equilibrium al 5 S P a l P a a l P a l a a 32 Vol.16 No Summer

4 3 1 2 OD 3.1 OD OD OD : 1: 9: 1: 14: 11: 13: 16: 12: 15: 2: 17: 21: 22: 23: 27: 18: 28: 26: 24: 4: 29: 3: 31: 32: 34: 25: 37: 35: 33: 38: 42: 36: 41: 39: 43: 44: 4: 7: 6: 8: 2: 5: OD 3.2 U r k U r k 6 s 1 s 2 s 3 ln s 4 s s 6 1s Parameter 1.18E E 5 5.8E 1 5.5E E E 6.6E 1 No. of Sample Hit Ratio Likelihood Ratio t-value , OD 115OD 1 5, Vol.16 No Summer 33

5 223OD OD V rail V bus V auto ACC V public q 1 q 2 r 1 r 2 r V rail V bus ACC 6 s E E E E E E 4 1.9E E t E E 2 1.9E E E E 4 1.2E 1.71E t Vol.16 No Summer

6 2km16 /km 7.2V rail ACC Freq k k Seat k k25 LF k k MC a8 l Brander and Zhang 18 cpm/ a JAL ANA RPK / 9 / DIS k k25 4 LCC OD 25 OD OD ij OD OD Vol.16 No Summer 35

7 1 2 1Pˆr k k LCC k LCC OD3.1 47OD 1 47OD OD OD OD 47OD OD 25 47OD k ab k P a l Freq k x al 121 Freq k 9 No Freq k Freq k Yes P a l 3 No a max a Yes Yes a n a n 1 b n b n 1 P b l Freq k x bl 121 Freq k 9 No Freq k Freq k Yes P b l 3 No b max b 36 Vol.16 No Summer

8 Vol.16 No Summer 37 LCC 2 19 LCC 5.7 / LCC 3 A B C IIA , / A B A B A B C A A B C A B A B A B A B B A B A B A B LCC A A B C A B A LCC A B A LCC B

9 3, 4, / 2, 15, 1, 5, A B A B A B C A / 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, A B C A B A B / 2, 15, 1, 5, A B A B B LCC LCC LCC LCC Case18 C LCC Case / 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 / 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, / 2, 15, 1, 5, A B A B A B LCC A A B A B A B LCC A 38 Vol.16 No Summer

10 Vol.16 No Summer 39 LCC24, 14,43 LCC Case LCC B LCC A 1 A B A B A B C/LCC A A B C A B A B/LCC A B A B/LCC B / / / ,589 3, ,611 4,684 4,431 1, , , ,581 3, ,549 4,57 4,357 1, , , ,822 14,82 13,997 13,995 15,81 15,799 13,314 15,317 14,436 23,819 22,969 17,753 22,96 23,948 24,545 23,695 22,32 14,681 15,51 14,46 15,226 16,43 16,177 14,818 14,816 13,993 13,991 15,797 15,795 1,959 15,313 14,436 23,589 22,683 17,685 22,676 23,662 24,315 13,516 22,32 14,588 14,845 14,313 11,16 15,747 16, , 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, 4,5 5, A B C A B A LCC / 1, 2, / 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, A B C A B A LCC /

11 B LCC LCC 21 B LCC LCCLCC 5 LCC 3 ALCC LCC A 12, / Vol.16 No Summer , A B A LCC B / 5, 1, / 5, 1, 15, 2, A B A LCC B / A B A B A B C/LCC A A B C A B A B/LCC A B A B/LCC B i 2 2 ii k 1 11,17 1,998 1,192 1,173 11,996 11,977 9,713 11,512 18,12 17,36 13,425 17,189 18,285 18,828 18,32 1,817 11,52 1,542 11,227 12,44 11,7 1,988 1,182 1,163 11,986 11,967 7,366 11,52 17,845 17,64 13,372 16,932 18,43 18,571 9,96 1,633 1,838 1,358 7,523 11,74 AB , , , ,996 14,352 19,171 13,527 2,975 15,331 11,848 2,491 21,72 2,718 16,837 2,159 21,697 21,798 16,37 14,684 17,455 14,49 11,775 18,357 2,263 14,395 19,438 13,57 21,242 15,374 13,997 2,758 22,166 23,313 16,991 21,253 24,292 22,892 24,39 15,44 19,318 14,769 19,43 2,22 AB , ,95 2, ,95 2,595 1,95 7, , ,268 1,863 A B C LCC 221,362,99 28,17,962 33,71, ,9,22 214,914,74 194,537,91 29,12,236 19,134, ,597,679 Difference 6,448,25 13,48,871 4,697,95 19,134,278 5,492,524

12 1 k k 1 2,6 7,3 121 U r k 1 k OD LCC OD OD 5 IIA LCC OD 6 1 LCC 5 1 Barrett, S. eds.29deregulation and the Airline Business in Europe - Selected Readings, Routledge. Vol.16 No Summer 41

13 2 Hess, S. and Adler, T. 211An Analysis of Trends in Air Travel Behaviour Using Four Related SP Datasets Collected between 2 and 25Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 17, pp II /7/ Vol. 22 pp Vol. 2pp Vol. 2pp No Takebayashi, M. 211The Runway Capacity Constraint and Airline s Behavior: Choice of Aircraft Size and Network DesignTransportation Research Part E, Vol. 47, pp Tuba, T. 21How Do Sustained Changes in Cost of Airlines Influence Air Traffic onlinehttp:// document/eec/report/21/account 2Paper-TT2991.pdf LCC Vol. 43 CD-ROM Barbot, C. 28Can Low Cost Carriers Deter or Accommodate Entry? Transportation Research Part E, Vol. 44, pp Fu, X. et al. 211Effects of Transport Service Differentiation in the US Domestic Airline MarketTransportation Research Part E, Vol. 47, pp Pels, E. 29Network Competition in the Open Aviation AreaJournal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 15, pp Murakami, H. 211Time Effect of Low-Cost Carrier Entry and Social Welfare in US Large Air MarketsTransportation Research Part E, Vol. 47, pp No Vol. 4CD-ROM 18 Brander, J. A. and Zhang, A. 1993Dynamic Oligopoly Behaviour in the Airline IndustryInternational Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol. 11, pp An Analysis on the Impact of LCC Entry into the Domestic Aviation Services in Japan By Gaku INOUE, Kiyoteru TANSEI, Motohiro KIDO and Takahiro IMAMURA This paper developed a method of simulating air transport demand changes when low cost carriers LCCs entry into the domestic aviation services based on Bertrand Nash Equilibrium. Consequently, we analyzed the changes in passenger demands, average flight fares and the number of flights on three major routes: capital region to Kansai area, capital region to North Kyushu area, and Kansai area to North Kyushu area. The changes are estimated to be significantly different among the routes. Key Words : low cost carriers(lcc), Bertrand-Nash Equilibrium, airport planning 42 Vol.16 No Summer

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