グローバル・バリュー・チェーンの長さ指標：製造業とサービス業
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1 upstreamness Heiwai Tang kenji.suganuma@boj.or.jp / /
2 1. Timmer et al. [2014] Global Value Chain: GVC GVC FTA EU ASEAN IT Krugman [1980] Melitz [2003] iphone GVC upstreamness Antràs and Chor [2013] 2 /2016.7
3 GVC GVC GVC GVC
4 Antràs and Chor [2013] 2011 Fally [2012] 2 Antràs et al. [2012] Antràs et al. [2012] i (1) (3) 2 Antràs et al. [2012] (1) nj=1 U i =1 Fi d ij F nj=1 nk=1 j d ik d kj F j (Antràs and Chor [2013]) (1) Y i Y i Y i U i = 1 + n j=1 d ij Y j Y i U j (Fally [2012]) (2) U i = 1 Y i n j=1 Y i d jj (Antràs et al. [2012]) (3) Antràs et al. [2012] OECD-STAN EU GDP... 1 output upstreamness /2016.7
5 GDP Fally [2012] Antràs et al. [2012] GVC Fally and Hillberry [2015] IDE-JETRO Value-added content of export ratio: VAX GVC Ito and Veniza [2015] Fally and Hillberry [2015] IDE-JETRO i ii iii Miller and Temurshoev [2015] World Input Output Database WIOD Johnson [2014] 1 5
6 5 WIOD World Input Output Table National Input Output Table IDE-JETRO Asian International Input Output Table OECD (Inter-Country Input Output Tables) 61 OECD Johnson and Noguera [2012] IDE-JETRO OECD Johnson [2014] WIOD Antràs and Yeaple [2014] Timmer et al. [2014] Los, Timmer,... 5WIOD , , EU EU EU KLEMS WIOD rest of the world 7WIOD Dietzenbacher et al. [2013] Timmer et al. [2015] 8 9 OECD Trade in Value Added: TiVA /2016.7
7 and de Vries [2015] WIOD GVC WIOD WIOD WIOD
8 IDE-JETRO WIOD WIOD Y i i F i i Z i a ij j /2016.7
9 1 WIOD 2 i A Y F Y (4) I n n a 11 a 1n A:=....., a n1 a nn F 1 F :=. F n, Y 1 Y :=. Y n, Y:= diag( Y ) = Y (4) 0 Y n 9
10 d ij j 1 i a ij /Y j D = (d ij ) (5) AY 1 a 11 a 1n d 11 d 1n Y 1 Y n D:=..... = AY 1 =..... d n1 d nn a n1 Y 1 a nn Y n. (5) (1) Antràs and Chor [2013] i (Y i ) i (F i ) j (Z i ) 2 Z i (6) n n Y i = F i + Z i = F i + a ij = F i + d ij Y j j=1 j=1 n n n n n n = F i + d ij F j + d ik d kj F j + d il d lk d kj F j +. (6) j=1 j=1 k=1 j=1 k=1 l=1 (6) 2 1 i i 2 i j 3 i k j (6) 1 i 2 i j 3 i k j (6) i Y i (7) 1 = F nj=1 i d ij F nj=1 nk=1 j d ik d kj F nj=1 nk=1 nl=1 j d il d lk d kj F j (7) Y i Y i Y i Y i i (U i ) (7) (8) 10 /2016.7
11 nj=1 U i = 1 Fi d ij F nj=1 nk=1 j d ik d kj F j Y i Y i Y i nj=1 nk=1 nl=1 d il d lk d kj F j (8) Y i U = (U 1,...,U n ) (4) (5) (9) U = Y 1 [I + 2D + 3D 2 + ] F. (9) (9) [I D] Y (10) U (11) [I D] Y U = [I + D + D 2 + ] F = [I D] 1 F, (10) U = Y 1 [I D] 2 F. (11) (11) Antràs et al. [2012] (6) Y (12) Y = [I + D + D 2 + ] F = [I D] 1 F. (12) (12) [I D] 1 (12) (11) (5) (13) U = Y 1 [I D] 1 Y = [Y DY] 1 Y 1 = [I Y 1 A] 1 1, (13) 1 1 n B (14) (15) a 11 a 1n Y 1 Y 1 B:= Y 1 A =....., a n1 a nn Y n Y n (14) U = [I B] 1 1. (15) 11
12 (15) Ito and Vezina [2015] (15) [I B] 1 (Miller and Temurshoev [2015]) 1 1 (6) Z i = 0 Y i = F i (8) WIOD (15) (16) U = [I + B + B 2 + ] 1. (16) (16) (16) (16) B = (b ij ) i 1 i j i 2011 Z F 12 /2016.7
13 ( ) Y ( ) Z (1) (0.66) 34 i ( ) F (1) 2 39 ( ) Z (2) 2 (0.39) 11 [I + B + B 2 + ] (16) j i U ci c i c U c (Y ci /Y c ) (17) U c = n i=1 ( ) U ci Yci. (17) Y c
14 ΔU c ΔU ci Δ (Y ci /Y c ) 2 within effect between effect (18) ΔU c = n i=1 [ ΔU ci ( Yci Y c )] + n i=1 [ U ci Δ ( Yci Y c )]. (18) (18) 1 2 (U) (ΔU) (Y c /Y) (19) (20) U = m c=1 ( ) U c Yc, (19) Y ΔU = m c=1 [ ΔU c ( )] Yc + Y m c=1 [ U c Δ ( Yc Y )]. (20) i U i (21) (Y ci /Y i ) ΔU i (22) (21) i U i (Y i /Y) (23) ΔU (24) (19) (23) (20) (24) U i = m c=1 ( ) U ci Yci, (21) Y i ΔU i = m c=1 [ ΔU ci ( Yci Y i )] + m c=1 [ U ci Δ ( Yci Y i )], (22) 14 /2016.7
15 U = n i=1 ( ) U i Yi, (23) Y ΔU = n i=1 [ ΔU i ( )] Yi + Y n i=1 [ U i Δ ( Yi Y )]. (24) (24) (18) 1 n i=1 U i Δ(Y i /Y) n i=1 U ci Δ(Y ci /Y) WIOD 15
16 WIOD (22) (a), (b) (22) ΔU ci (Y ci /Y i ) i 3(a) /2016.7
17 WIOD (b)
18 (18) (18) (16) (a) (b) Fally [2012] /2016.7
19 WIOD (b) GVC 19
20 WIOD 6(c) /2016.7
21 6 (b) WIOD 21
22 3 7 (22) (22) WIOD /2016.7
23 8 WIOD 3 WIOD EU WIOD WIOD EU NACE WIOD WIOD 23
24 9 2 (16) 1 9(a) Research and Development: R&D 9(b) (c) i j i j k k j k (8) 2 i j 2 3 i j 24 /2016.7
25 R&D 2 10(a) 10(b) k 25
26 Wi-Fi GVC R&D 26 /2016.7
27 value-added ratio 22 Ito and Vezina [2015] Baldwin, Ito, and Sato [2014] U 3 Miller and Temurshoev [2015] 23 GVC 4 2 GVC input downstreamness 27
28 11 WIOD 28 /2016.7
29 Antràs, Pol, Davin Chor, Thibault Fally, and Russell Hillberry, Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows, American Economic Review, 102(3), 2012, pp ,and, Organizing the Global Value Chain, Econometrica, 81(6), 2013, pp , and Stephen R. Yeaple, Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade, Handbook of International Economics, 4, 2014, pp Baldwin, Richard, Tadashi Ito, and Hitoshi Sato, Portrait of Factory Asia: Production Network in Asia and Its Implication for Growth The Smile Curve, Joint Research Program Series, IDE-JETRO, 159, Bernard, Andrew B., J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen J. Redding, and Peter K. Schott, Firms in International Trade, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3),2007,pp Dietzenbacher, Erik, Bart Los, Robert Stehrer, Marcel P. Timmer, and Gaaitzen J. de Vries, The Construction of World Input Output Tables in the WIOD Project, Economic Systems Research, 25, 2013, pp Fally, Thibault, Production Staging: Measurement and Facts, Working paper, 2012 (available at and Russell Hillberry, A Coasian Model of International Production Chain, NBER Working Paper, No , Helpman, Elhanan, Marc J. Melitz, and Yona Rubinstein, Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(2), 2008, pp Ito, Tadashi, and Pierre-Louis Vezina, Production Fragmentation, Upstreamness, and Value-Added: Evidence from Factory Asia , IDE Discussion Paper, 535, Krugman, Paul R., Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade, American Economic Review, 70, 1980, pp Johnson, Robert C., Five Facts about Value-Added Exports and Implications for Macroeconomics and Trade Research, Journal of Economics Perspectives, 28(2), 2014, pp , and Guillermo Noguera, Fragmentation and Trade in Value Added Over Four Decades, NBER Working Paper, No , Los, Bart, Marcel P. Timmer, and Gaaitzen J. de Vries, How Global are Global Value Chains? A New Approach to Measure International Fragmentation, Journal of Regional Science, 55(1), 2015, pp
30 Markusen, James R., Expansion of Trade at the Extensive Margin: A General Gains-from- Trade Result and Illustrative Examples, Journal of International Economics, 89(1), 2013, pp Melitz, Marc J., The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity, Econometrica, 71(6), 2003, pp Miller, Ronald E., and Umed Temurshoev, Output Upstreamness and Input Downstreamness of Industries/Countries in World Production, International Regional Science Review, 2015, published online before print. Timmer, Marcel P., Abdul Azeez Erumban, Bart Los, Robert Stehrer, and Gaaitzen J. de Vries, Slicing up Global Value Chains, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2),2014, pp , Erik Dietzenbacher, Bart Los, Robert Stehrer, and Gaaitzen J. de Vries, An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input Output Database: The Case of Global Automotive Production, Review of International Economics, 23, 2015, pp /2016.7
31 A-1(a) A-1(b) 31
32 A-1 WIOD 32 /2016.7
33 extensive margin intensive margin Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein [2008] Markusen [2013] 25 R&D servicification Bernard et al. [2007]
34 A-2 WIOD 27 A WIOD previous year s price: PYP PYP 1998 PYP PYP 1996 PYP /2016.7
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