#6 : ( 8-13) URL : j inoue/index.html : Neugart

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1 #6 : ( 8-13) RL : j inoue/index.html : Neugart /* */ #include <stdio.h> #include <math.h> double func(x,a) /* f(x)=. f(x) */ double x; double a; { return (pow(a*x,2)-a*(a+1)*x+a+1); } double Dfunc(x,a) /* f(x) 1.. */ double x; double a; { return (2*a*a*x-a*(a+1)); } main() { 49

2 FILE *fpr; int i,imax=1; double x,y,a; if((fpr = fopen("lower.dat", "wt"))!=nll){ for(a=3.; a<=1.+sqrt(6.); a=a+.1){ /* a */ for(i =, x=.1; i <= imax; i++){ x = x - func(x,a)/dfunc(x,a); if(fabs(y-x)<1.e-5){ fprintf(fpr,"%lf %lf\n",a,x); break; }else{ y = x; } }} } fclose(fpr); }, a 2, 2 x,, x., a, a x, a x a a x,,. a x. for(a=3.,x=.1; a<=1.+sqrt(6.); a=a+.1){ /* a */ for(i = ; i <= imax; i++){ 27. 9, : x n+1 = ax n (1 x n ) (123),., ( 1 ), ( ). ( 5 ), 2, ( x ), ( a ),. 5

3 x upper branch lower branch (a+1+sqrt((a+1)*(a-3)))/(2*a) (a+1-sqrt((a+1)*(a-3)))/(2*a) a 27: 2., ( ), ( ).,,,,. ( ),,, 1., 6,,, ( ).,. 9.1 :, ( ),., /,,., ( ),,,.,,,,,. (, ),, ( / ), 1, ( ). 51

4 ,,.,, ( ).,, ( ), ( ),,,,.,,, Alban William Housego Phillips.,,.,,,,,, , inflation (%) unemployment (%) 28:.,, Neugart (24), 2.,. 52

5 s in Japan **( ) s in Japan **( ) s in Japan **( ) s in Japan **( ) :. 9.2 Neugart Neugart.,,., , t 2 t, i.,, o t., t., t + 1 t+1 ( 1) t t t+1 = t + i(1 t ) o t t (124)., t + 1 t+1, t t : o t t, : i(1 t ). 2 t. 53

6 Neugart i,. : x t+1 = ax t (1 x t ) (125) a., i,., t o t. t. o t = J s + J c,t t + d(1 t ) (126) J c,t = γ(m t ) (127), (126) J s + J c,t. 2 1 J s,., 2 J c,t J s,, Neugart (127) m t. γ < γ < 1.,, J s + J c,t,,. ( t ), 2 d(1 t ),, 1 t t + d(1 t )., d On the job searching., (126) t,., e,t, w b,t, ( ) w p.,. Neugart, t + 1, t t, a ( a 1),. e,t+1 = a t + (1 a) e,t (128), t,, w p, t w b,t.. w p = (1 µ)y (129), y, µ.,, ( 3 ).,,.,,, (y),,.., y = 1., 3, 3, ( ),, ( ). 54

7 /µ.6.5 1/µ demand demand 3: 1/µ (demand).,..., t w b,t = 1 (1 b) t (13)., b < b < 1, 4,,,,,, y = 1 5., t. t = 1 δ ( e,t + w ) b,t w p = 1 ( e,t + µ (1 b) ) t w p δ 1 µ,, t (131) w t w b,t w p w p (132)., w t w p, t w b,t w p., (131), t ( w t > ), t, e,t,, ( w t < ),,.,,,,,,., (131) δ, (131) w p = w b,t, ( )., t t., (124) (126),(127) (131) (128) t+1 = t + i(1 t ) t J s + γ(m t ) t + d(1 t ) (133) 4,. 5,,. 55

8 t+1 = 1 ( µ δ 1 µ + a t + (1 a) 1 ( 1 b δ 1 µ ( δ t µ (1 b) )) t 1 µ )) ( t + i(1 t ) t J s + γ(m t ) t + d(1 t ) (134)., t t,., (133)(134) = t+1 = t, = t+1 = t µ m(δ 1)(1 µ) = (135) 1 b = m (136).,, m,, = m (, (136) ), (133), = t+1 = t, = t+1 = t = m J s + i(1 ) + d(1 ) = (137) J s = i(1 )( + d(1 )) (138) J s., (138) (133)(134) (133)(134) i,. 31 i =.18 t t t.6 t t t 31: i =.18 ( ) ( )., d =.1, b =.5, µ =.4, γ =.5, δ = 2, a =.5, m =.3. t = 2.,,,., 56

9 i =.1 i =.185 t, t,. 32., i, d =.1, b =.5, µ =.4, γ =.5, δ = 2, a =.5, m =.3., i.13199, i,., m d, i i 32: i ( ) ( ). i =.18., d =.1, b =.5, µ =.4, γ =.5, δ = 2, a =.5, m =.3.,, i( ) , : ( )., d =.1, b =.5, µ =.4, γ =.5, δ = 2, a =.5, i =.18, m =.3. 57

10 ., 34,,, t, t + 1.,., Neugart, t t t t : i =.18 ( ) ( ) t, t+1., d =.1, b =.5, µ =.4, γ =.5, δ = 2, a =.5, m = t, t,,, ( ) P (), P (). 35., Neugart P().4.3 P() :, P ()( ), P ()( ). d =.1, b =.5, µ =.4, γ =.5, δ = 2, a =.5, m =.3.,,,.,,, 58

11 . ( ):,., Neugart,. HSCAP. ( ) (, ),., HP: ( ): (6/7) ( ).,,.. 59