1 (1997) (1997) 1974:Q3 1994:Q3 (i) (ii) ( ) ( ) 1 (iii) ( ( 1999 ) ( ) ( ) 1 ( ) ( 1995,pp ) 1
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1 1 (1997) (1997) 1974:Q3 1994:Q3 (i) (ii) ( ) ( ) 1 (iii) ( ( 1999 ) ( ) ( ) 1 ( ) ( 1995,pp ) 1
2 2 ) (i) (ii) / (iii) ( ) (i ii) ( ) 3 ( ) 2, 3 Dunning(1979) ( ) 1 2 ( ) ( ) ( ) (,p.218) ( ) (1997)
3 , 2,3 2 3 ( 2) 4 ( 3) ( ) H F ( 2, 3) ( H ) 2 (1998, p.26)
4 4 ( F ) Q H Q X (Q p = Q H + Q X ) 3 4 H 5 ( ) ( ) F ( ) H ( 2, 3) ( 100 ) 6 (1996,pp ) 3 ( intra-firm trade ) 20 40% R&D (.) (1995, pp ) 4 (1995) 5 Kawai(1994, Tables 7 and 8,pp.38-39) Kawai(Figure 1) ( ) 70% 60% 70%( 40% ) 60% ( 40% ) 6 (1995, pp.42-47)
5 5 ( ) 100 F H ẽ µ e σ e H F p H ( ) πp H = P H Q p TCp H. (1) P H TC H (a generalized Cobb-Douglass (1995)
6 6 type) Q p = θ p x ωp 1p x1/2 ωp 2p. (2) 0 <ω p < 1 2 ( ) x 1p x 2p (the totalproduct) (the distribution parameters) ω p 1 ω p (0 <ω p < 1) θ p (an efficiency parameter an indicator of the state of technology) p θ p 2 TC H p = c H p Q 2 p. (3) r 1p r 2p c H p = 1 2 [ θ p ω ωp p r ωp 1p r1/2 ωp 2p (1/2 ω p ) 1/2 ωp ] 2. (4) (4) c p ( ) θ p c p p ( ) ce E[U( π H global)] = µ π a 2 σ2 π. (5) a - ( ) µ π E[ π global H ] σπ 2 Var[ π global]. H
7 7 p (1) µ π = πp H (5) ce = πp H. (6) (7) ce [0] max Q p ce (7) Q [0] p = P H 2c H p. (8) ce [0] = (P H ) 2 4c H p (9) = 1 2 P H Q [0] p. (10) ce [0], 2 ce [1], ce [2] 3 ( 2) ( ) 2( ) ( ) ( ce [i] ce [0] ) i 0 (i =1, 2)
8 ( ) (, 3 ) 9 2 ( ) ( ) F ( ) H ( ) ( ) a. p ce ( ) H ( ) π p H = P H Q H +ẽpx F Q X TCp H XCp H. (11) 8 (1995,pp.20-22) 9 (1995)
9 9 Q p = Q H + Q X TCp H (3) XCH p ( ) XC H p = c H XQ X. (12) c H X ( ) ( ) ( ) c H X (θ p) c H X < 0 (13) XCp H ( c H X ) ( ) ( ) 3( )
10 10 ce (5) µ π = P H Q H TCp H XC p H + µ epx F Q X (14) σπ 2 =(PX F Q X ) 2 σe 2. (15) ce [1] max Q H,Q X ce (16) Q [1] p Q [1] H = Q[1] H + Q[1] X = P H 2c H p = P H 2c H p (17) Q [1] X (18) Q [1] X = Z a(σ e PX F ) 2. (19) 1/a H ( ) 10 Z = µ e PX F P H c H X Z >0 11 (13) Z>0 ( ) ( ) (18) (19) P H Z = (20) a(σ e PX F ) 2 2c H p µ e (19) (19) 11 Z<0 Z = µ e µ e
11 11 (17)-(19) (16) ce [1] = (P H ) 2 = 1 2 4c H p + 1 ( ) 2 Z (21) 2a σ e PX F ( P H Q [1] H + µ epx F Q [1] X ch XQ [1] X ). (22) (21) XCp H 2 2 Q [1] X = µ epx F P H c H X + a(σ epx F ) 2 (23) (19) c H X (ch X ) (21) ce [1] = (P H ) 2 4c H p + 1 2a ( ) µe PX F P H 2. (24) c H X + σ epx F XCp H [ ] ch X [ ] ( ) 2 2 b. (21) (9)
12 12 ce [1] ce [0] = 1 ( ) 2 { } Z (i) > 0 2a σ e PX F (i i) = { } if µ e PX F (i-a) >, (i-b) < P H + c H X(θ p ). (25) = ( ) (i-a) (i ) (19) > 0 13 Q [1] X (ii) ( ) (25) / (19) Q [1] X =0 ( ) ( ) c. ( ) (25) (i-a) (i ) ( ) ( 1980 ) 13 (i-b) ( ) (i) (19)
13 ( ) a. ce = π H p = P H Q H + PX H Q X TC H p XC H p. (26) ( ) XCp H 2 XCp H = c H XQ 2 X. (27) ( ) Q [1] p = Q [1] H + Q[1] X = P H (28) 2c H p Q [1] H Q [1] X = P H 2c H p ce [1] = (P H ) 2 4c H p Q [1] X (29) = PX H P H 2c H. (30) X + (PXH P H ) 2 4c H. (31) X (24) XC H p c H X b. (31) (9) { } ce [1] ce [0] = (PX H P H ) 2 (i) > 4c H 0 X (i i) =
14 14 { } if PX H (i-a) >, (i-b) < P H. (32) = (i-a) (.) ( ) XCp H [ ] c H X [ ] ( ) 2 ( ) ( ) a ( ) 2b ( )
15 15 a. 1 p s s p p s [ ] ( ) θ p,θ s [θp,θ s ] θ p (s p ) θ p = θ p. (33) θ s >θ s. (34) p M p θ p /θ s M p p M p (θ p /θ s ) M p > 0 (35) p s p p s p ( ) ICp H ICH p [M p(θ p /θ s )] 14 IC H p > 0. (36) 14 (1992, p.47)
16 16 2a p H ( ) (1) π H p = P H Q p TC H p IC H p [M p (θ p /θ s )]. (37) s F ( ) π F s = P F Q s TC F s. (38) s TCs F p (2)-(4) s H F (34) θs (4) (34) 15 c F s = cf s (θ s ). (39) c F s (θ s) <c F s (θ s ). (40) s p s p s 100 p H (37) (38) π global H = πp H +ẽπ F s = P H Q p TCp H ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )]+ẽ(p F Q s TCs F ). (41) ce (5) µ π = P H Q p TCp H ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] + µ e (P F Q s TCs F ) (42) σπ 2 =(P F Q s TCs F ) 2 σe 2. (43) 15 (1996,p.111) (40)
17 17 ( ) ( ) ce [2] max ce (44) Q p,q s Q [2] p Q [2] s = P H 2c H p. (45) = P F. (46) 2c F s Q [2] s Q s 2 (P F ) 2 4c F s µ e aσ 2 e =0; s TR F s [2] = P F Q [2] s (46) 1 [2] TRF s = µ e 2 aσe 2 (47) 16 TR F s [2] ( ) (45) (46) (44) ce [2] = (P H ) 2 4c H p 16 TR F [2] s =2TC F [2] s. IC H p [M p (θ p /θ s )] µ etr F [2] s (48) = 1 2 P H Q [2] p IC H p [M p (θ p /θ s )] µ etr F [2] s. (49)
18 18 b. 2b (48) (9) (i ) > < ce [2] ce [0] 1 (i i) = 0ifICH p [M p (θ p /θ s )] = 4 µ etr F s [2]. (50) (iii) < > 1 (50) p s s 17 (46) µ e Q [2] s (50) ( ) ( ) (50) 1/4 (µ etr F s [2] )
19 19 (50) b, c 3 a ( ) 5 ( ) 2 22% 30% ( 1 ) 1: ( ) a % % % % % 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , a (1998, 1-3, p.13) b. ( ) [i] p (
20 20 ) s [ii] s p s ( (35), (36) ) 2b [iii] ( ) ( ) r 1s r 2s ( ) Q [2] s ( (34) (39) (46) (4) ) TRs F [2] 18 [iv] [v] ( ) s ( ) (50) (i ) 19 1 [i] p ( ) s [ii] s p s ( (35) (36) ) ( ) (1994,p.268)
21 21 2b 2b 20 c. 1 [i ] ( ) s p [ii] p s ( (35) (36) ) 2b [iii] Q [2] s TR F s [2] ( (46) c F s ) [iv] [v] ( ) s ( ) (50) (i) (1996, pp.64-66) 21 ( ) (1994,pp ) p ( )
22 22 d. (41) (42) 1980 ( ) 4 ( 3) 1 1 ( ) 3( ) [i], [ii] 22 (1994) 23
23 a. 1 p (11) H ( ) F ( ) (38) ( ) (5) µ π = P H Q H TCp H XCp H ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] + µ e (PX F Q X + P F Q s TCs F ) (51) σπ 2 =(PX F Q X + P F Q s TCs F )2 σe 2. (52) (12) XCp H ( c H X ) ( ) ce [3] max ce (53) Q H,Q X,Q s Q [3] p = Q [3] H + Q[3] X = P H 2c H p Q [3] X = Z Q [3] s a(σ e PX F ) 2 ( µe φ = 1 PX F aσ 2 e P F 2PX F Q[3] P F 2 Q[3] s (54) s (55) ) (56) = P F. (57) 2c F s φ =(P H + c H X )/PX F Q [3] s a(px F Q X + P F Q s TCs F )σe 2 = Z PX F
24 24 Q [3] X > 0 (56), (57) µ e >φ+ a(σ ep F ) 2 4c F. s µ e >φ (19) Q [1] X > 0 24 (56) µ e φ = P F aσe 2 2 Q[3] s (58) 2 (54) Q [3] X = P H 2c H p (59) (54) (55) (56) 25 ( ) (54)-(57) (53) ce [3] = (P H ) 2 4c H p + 1 ( ) 2 Z IC H 2a σ e PX F p [M p (θ p /θ s )] P H + c H X PX F TR F [3] s (60) 24 (55) 1 1 Q [1] X ( (19) ) 25 P F 3 (, c F s ) ( ) 1
25 25 = 1 ( ) P H Q [3] H 2 + µ epx F Q [3] X ch XQ [3] X ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] + 1 ( µ e + P H + c H ) X TR F [3] 4 PX F s. (61) (57) TR F s [3] = P F Q [3] s =(P F ) 2 /2c F s (60) 2 1 ce [1] (21) ( (61) µ e TRs F [3] (60) 2 ). TR F s [3] ( ) a.1. 2( ) (61) 2( ) ce [2] (49) TR F s [3] 2 3( ) (61) φ =(P H + c H X )/PXF ( b ) b. ( ) (60) (21)
26 26 (i) > ce [3] ce [1] (i i) = 0 (iii) < < if ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] = > 1 P H + c H X (θ p) TR F [3] 2 PX F s. (62) 26 1/2 (µ e TR F s [2] ) b.1. 2( ) (62) 2 ( ) (50) ( µ e ) ( ) µ e ( Z>0 µ e > (P H + c H X )/PX F ) 26 Cassel(1916) (1994a, b) 3 (56) µ e φ =(P H + c H X )/PXF
27 27 2 (50) 27 ce [3] (60) 2 1 ce [1] (21) ce [3] (61) µ e TR F s [3] (60) 2 µ e TR F s [3] ce [3] ce [1] 2 2 ( ) 3 ( ) b.2. ( ) 1, 3( ) c H X ( ) (62) 3 ( µ e ) µ e 27 2 ( ) (theexchangeratepass-through) ( ) PX F Kojima(1995)
28 28 28 s p 2 1 2b [iii] Q [3] s TR F s [3] ( (57) c F s ) [iv] ( ) ( ) c H X ( ) 29 [v] ( ) ( ) [iv] (62) (i ) [i v] [v] 28 ( ) 45% 12% 17% (1980 ) ( 1 ) (62) 29 ( )
29 a. (5) µ π = P H Q H TCp H XCp H ICp H [M p (θ p /θ s )] + PX H Q X + µ e (P F Q s TCs F ) (63) σπ 2 =(P F Q s TCs F ) 2 σe 2. (64) XCp H 2 (27) ( ) ( ) 3( ) 30 ( ICp H ) / ( c F s ) c F s (40) c F s Q [3] H,Q[3] X 1 Q [3] s ) Q [3] H Q [3] X = P H 2c H p Q [3] X. (65) = PX H P H 2c H. (66) X ( (47) Q [3] s = P F. (67) 2c F s 30 ( 2)
30 30 Q [3] X Q[3] s PX H,P F c H X,cF s Q[3] X Q[3] s (1997) (55) ( ) ( ) (47) ce [3] = (P H ) 2 4c H p + (PX H P H ) 2 4c H X IC H p [M p (θ p /θ s )] µ etr F [3] s. (68) a.1. 2( ) (68) 2( ) ce [2] (49) TRs F [3] ( )
31 31 b. (68) (31) (i ) > < ce [3] ce [1] (i i) = 0ifICp H 1 [M p (θ p /θ s )] = 4 µ etr F s [3]. (69) (iii) < > (69) 2 (50) ( ) ( ) ( 2 ) 2, 3 ( 1997) b.1. ( ) 1 [i] ( ) s p [ii] (35) (36) p s ( ) ( ) [i]
32 32 2b [iii] 2 2b [iii] ( c F s ) [iv] [v] [iv] [ii] [iii] ( ) (62) (i) ( [iv]) ( [iii]) 4.3 ( ) ( ) (1997)
33 33 5 ( ) ( ) ( 2) ( 3) ( ) 2, 3 (2 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 2 ( ) [ ] (i) [(iii)
34 34 ] ( ) ( ) 1980 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1997) 1974:Q3 1994:Q3
35 35 (i) [ ] [ ] (ii) ( ) (i ii) ( 1992 ) [1] / (1996) [2] 1994a ( ) [3] 1994b ( ). [4] [5] VAR [6] 1995 ( ). [7] 1998 ( ). [8] [9] 1992 ( ). [10] 1995 ( )
36 36 [11] / (1996) [12] Cassel, G., 1916, The Present Situation of the Foreign Exchanges, Economic Journal, 26, [13] Chiang, A.C., 1984, Fundamental Methods in Mathematical Economics, 2nd. edition (McGraw-Hill). [14] Dunning, J.H., 1979, Explaining changing patterns of internaitaonal production: in defense of the eclectic thoery, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 41, [15] Kawai, M., 1994, The Japanese Yen as an International Currency: Performance and Prospects, Discussion Paper Series N. F-40 (The University of Tokyo Institute of Social Science). [16] Kojima, H., 1995, The analytics of exchange rate pass-through with numerical applications, in Proceedings of the Third Conference of the Association of Asian-Pacific Operational Research Societies (APORS) within IFORS, eds. by M. Fushimi and K. Tone (World Scientific),
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