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1 流通科学大学論集 - 経済 情報 政策編 - 第 22 巻第 2 号,19-32(2014) Lending Behavior for Small-Medium Business by Shinkin Bank and Other Domestic Bank in Japan: Evidences from Time Series Data Masafumi Kozuka I * 流通科学大学総合政策学部 神戸市西区学園西町 3-1 神戸大学大学院経済学研究科研究員 神戸市灘区六甲台町 2-1 (2013 年 8 月 30 日受理 ) C 2014 UMDS Research Association
2 20 小塚匡文 1: ( ) (QEMP)
3 わが国の信用金庫と国内銀行の中小企業向け貸出行動 21 2: IIP Choleski II III
4 22 小塚匡文 IV II. 4 VAR(Vector Auto Regression) (Y t) (MB t) 4 (BANK t) (SHINKIN t) rt b rt s 4 x t =(rt b,mb t, BANK t,y t) x t =(rt s,mb t,shinkin t,y t) x t VAR Choleski 2 VAR p x t = A 0 + A ix t i + u t (1) i=1 u t VAR p x t = B 0 + B ix t i + t (2) i=0 t 0 0 u t t u t =(u rb,t,u MB,t,u BANK,t,u Y,t) u t =(u rs,t,u MB,t,u SHINKIN,t,u Y,t) t =( rb,t, MB,t, BANK,t, Y,t) t =( rs,t, MB,t, SHINKIN,t, Y,t) (2) p x t =(I B 0) 1 [B 0 + B ix t i + t] (3) i=1
5 わが国の信用金庫と国内銀行の中小企業向け貸出行動 23 (1) (3) (I B 0)u t = t (4) Choleski I B 0 (4) u t = B 0u t + t (5) B 0 4 VAR 6 (5) u rb,t = a 1u MB,t + rb,t (6) u rs,t = a 1u MB,t + rs,t (7) u MB,t = MB,t (8) u BANK,t = a 2u rb,t + a 3u Y,t + BANK,t (9) u SHINKIN,t = a 2u rs,t + a 3u Y,t + SHINKIN,t (10) u Y,t = a 4u rb,t + a 5u MB,t + a 6u BANK,t + Y,t (11) u Y,t = a 4u rs,t + a 5u MB,t + a 6u SHINKIN,t + Y,t (12) 6 (6)(7) (8) (9)(10) (11)(12)
6 24 小塚匡文 3: IIP VAR SBIC(Schwarz Bayesian information criterion) ( Sample ( sample2 ( QEMP) Sample1 4-1 Sample2
7 わが国の信用金庫と国内銀行の中小企業向け貸出行動 ( ) Sample1 4-2 Sample Sample1 Sample Sample2 Sample1 5
8 26 小塚匡文 ( 95 III. QEMP 6 QEMP Honda et al.(2007)
9 わが国の信用金庫と国内銀行の中小企業向け貸出行動 27 QEMP Sample2 7 Sample1 Sample2 QEMP Sample1 QEMP Sample2 QEMP Sample2 (2013) 2008 Sample2
10 28 小塚匡文 ( ) 95 Sample1, Sample
11 わが国の信用金庫と国内銀行の中小企業向け貸出行動 ( ) 95 QEMP QEMP QEMP 2008 QEMP 9 IV. 4 VAR
12 30 小塚匡文 Sample1 QEMP Sample1 Sample2 Sample2 Sample2 QEMP Sample1 Sample2 Sample1 Sample2 QEMP QEMP JSPS (C)
13 わが国の信用金庫と国内銀行の中小企業向け貸出行動 Bernanke(1986) VAR VAR VAR 1 VAR Honda et al.(2007) Hamilton(1994) Chapter 20 5 Sample1 5-6 Sample ( ) Honda et al.(2007) Honda et al.(2007) QEMP QEMP 6 Brunner and Meltzer(1963) Tobin(1963) 7 Honda et al.(2007) 8 Honda et al.(2007) 9 (2013) 2005
14 32 小塚匡文 (2013) 21 2, , (2005) October, Bernanke, B. S.(1986) Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation, Carnegie- Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25,issue 1, pp.49-99, Autumn Brunner, Karl and Allan H. Meltzer(1963) The Place of Financial Intermediaries in the Transmission of Monetary Policy, America Economic Review 53, pp Hamilton. J. D.(1994) Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press Honda, Yuzo, Yoshihiro Kuroki and Minoru Tachibana (2007), An Injection of Base Money at Zero Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Japanese Experience , Graduate School of Osaka University Discussion Paper Tobin, James(1963) A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory, Jornal of money, M Credit and Banking 1, pp
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