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1 PFI PFI
2
3 PFI 2003 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI TEL FAX PFI
4 [ 1] PFI i [ 2] PFI i [ 3] PFI ii [ 4] iii [ 5] iv [ 6] v [ 7] PFI v [ 8] vi [ 9] vii [10] vii 1. PFI 1.1 PFI PFI/PPP PFI/PPP PFI VFM PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI VFM 2.1 VFM VFM VFM VFM PSC PFI LCC VFM
5 2.17 VFM VFM PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 4.1 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 5.1 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 6.1 PFI 201
6 6.2 PFI PFI (SPC) (SPC) (SPC) PFI 7.1 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 8.1 PFI PFI 268
7
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9 1PFI PFI (Private Finance Initiative) PPP (Public Private Partnerships)1999 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI BOT PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 2PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI i
10 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI ML ii
11 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI * iii
12 PFI : 39 UFJ UFJ ( 5 PFI 2003 iv
13 PFI PFI 7 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 1) PFI JAPICNo.90pp v
14 8 PFI VFM PFI vi
15 9 10 Mr. Graham TAYLORMr. Adrian BAXTERMr. Jim FosterHighway Agency, UKMr. Michael WILKINSMr. Robert ROBINSON Standard & Poors, LondonMr. Robert BAIN Leeds UniversityMr. Layth IraniMr. Osamu YagiSumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation EuropeMr. Atsushi OkudaMizuho Corporate Bank LondonDr. John Carr PriceWaterhouseCoopers, LondonMr. Charales NicolasGeorge KennedyHalcrowMr. David RushtonLaing PFI PFI vii
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17 This
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19 PFI PFI PFI PFI 1), 2) PFI PFI PFI ) PFIPFI ) LRT 5) PFI 6) PFIDBFODesign, Build, Finance and Operate PFILRT PFIPPPPublic Private Partnerships PFI Highways AgencyDBFO % 25 5,000 PFIM25 M1M Partenariat Public-Privé 1
20 8) Public Private Partnership ( Öffentlich Private Partnerschaften) 9) Highways AgencyDBFO 7) A69 Newcastle to Carlisle M1-A1 Motorway Link, Leeds A1(M) Alconbury to Peterborough A417/ A419 Swindon to Gloucester A50/ A564 Stoke to Derby link A30/ A35 Exeter to Bere Regis M40 Junctions 1-15 A168/A19 Dishforth to Tyne Tunnel A1 Darrington to Dishforth* 12/1/ /3/ /2/ /2/ /5/ /7/ /10/ /10/ /2/ * 33, 30 A69 A19 A1-M1 A1 Darrington to Dishforth A1(M) A50/A654 A417/A419 M40 A30/A Highways AgencyDBFO 7) PPI(Private Participation in Infrastructure) PICKO(Private Infrastructure Investment Center of Korea) 2
21 PFI/PPP BOT 10) PPPPUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP 11) PPPBenefits of PPP PFI PFI PFI services sold to the public sector PPPVFM 17% 12) 8 DBFO 15% 13) 10% 10% PFI 10 PFI 15% 12) PFI Highways Agency PFI PFI 3
22 PFI 14) PFIPFIPFI 14) PFI PFI PFI PFI VFM PFI PFI 4
23 1) PFI Vol pp.4-7 2) PFI ) PFIhttp://www8.cao.go.jp/pfi/ 4) PFIhttp:// 5) PFI PFI ) PFIhttp:// 7) Highways Agency An Introduction to DBFO Road Building Projects in the UK,16th October ) French ministry of Public Works, Transport and Housing, Economic and International Affaires Division Financing of Major Infrastructure and Public Service Projects Public-Private PartnershipPresses des Ponts et Chaussées2000 PPP ) PFI JAPIC pp ) BOT pp ) Bing Li and Akintola AkintoyaAn overview of public-private partnership; Akintola Akintoye, Matthias Beck & Cliff Hardcastle: PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP Managing risks and opportunities-, Blackwell Publishing, ) UK HM Treasury PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS -THE GOVERNMENT S APPROACH-, Her Majesty s Stationery Office ( 13) UK Highways AgencyValue in Roads, June 2002 ( value_in_roads/011.htm) 14) 12 PFI/PPP ( tohoku.ac.jp/ pfi-jsce/) 5
24 PFI /PPP PFIPPP PFI PFI PFI PPP(Public Private Partnerships) 1997 PFI PPP PPP PFI PFI PPP PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PPP PPP PFI PFIDraft Value for Money Appraisal Guidance 1) What is PFI?The PFI approach involves the public sector in contracting to purchase quality services, with defined outputs, from the private sector on a long term basis, and including maintaining or constructing the necessary infrastructure so as to take advantage of private sector management skills incentivised by having private finance at risk. PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 6
25 PPP 2) PPP GOCO(Government Owned Contractor OperatedOut Sourcing, Contract out Asset SalesWider marketssales of businessespartnership companiesprivate Finance initiativeservices sold to the public sector / Financially free- standing projectsconcessions and FranchisesJoint VenturesPartnership investmentspolicy Partnerships PPP3), 4), 5) ConcéssionAffermageGérance Régie IntéresséeMETPMarche d Entreprise de travaux public PPP : Prud homme (2000), 6) PPP 7) Buy-Build-OperateBuild-Own-OperateBuild-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) Build-Transfer-Operate (BTO) Joint VentureLease-Develop-OperateAlliance Contracts Barter ArrangementsGovernment Office Space LeasesLong-term Service Provision Contracts 7
26 8) ContractingNPO PPPPPP 8) PPP 8) PPP The remainder of this chapter sets out different broad types of partnerships and the opportunities and challenges posed by each. There is clearly some overlap, with a number of existing PPP projects fitting into more than one category and some of the same opportunities an d challenges apply to a range of PPP types. Prud homme 5) Prud hommeppp 5) 8
27 Valéry Li and Akintoya 9) PPP PPPPUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP 9) PPP PFIConcession Joint Venture Ownership Long-term Private involvement increasing Short-term Partial Asset usage Service Alternative contract Leasing Joint ventures Concession Privatization PPP models PPP models and private sector involvement level 9) 9
28 PPP PFI PFI PPP PPP PPP PPP PFI PFIPPPPrivate Finance Initiative Draft Value for Money Appraisal Guidance PPP/PFI PPP/PFI 10
29 BOT/BTO/BOO/LeaseBack SPC unitary payment 1) HM TreasuryDraft Value for Money Appraisal Guidance, February 2004 ( _keydocs_vfm.cfm) 2) UK TreasuryPUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS: THE GOVERNMENT S APPROACH (2000) 3) PPP/PFI ) ) Rémy PRUD HOMMEA Draft Typology of Public-Private PartnershipFrench ministry of Public Works, Transport and Housing, Economic and International Affaires Division Financing of Major Infrastructure and Public Service Projects Public-Private Partnership Presses des Ponts et Chaussées2000) PPP
30 6) ) NSW Government: Working with Government Private Financing of Infrastructure and Certain Government Services in NSW A Public Discussion Paper, November ) PPP PPPPublic Private Partnership: ) Bing Li and Akintola Akintoya: An overview of public-private partnership; Akintola Akintoye, Matthias Beck & Cliff Hardcastle: PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP Managing risks and opportunities-, Blackwell Publishing,
31 PFI/PPP [] PFI PFI PFI PFI PPP PFI PFI PFI [] PFI ( ) () () PFI 13
32 PFI PFI [] PFI BTOBOTBOO PFI NPV0 N Y VFM0 NPV N Y PFI PFI NPV PFI PFI NPV VFM PFI VFM LCC PFI PFI DBO VFM 14
33 PPP PFI 1.2 PFI 7.6 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI [] PFI PPP PFI PFI [] 1) PFI PFI 15
34 PFI VFM VFM [ ] PFI VFM(Value for Money) VFM VFM PFI VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM PFI VFM [] VFM PFI VFM [] PFIVFM 1) PPP PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP 2) PPPBenefits of PPP 4 VFM Highways AgencyVFM bargaining 16
35 PFI VFM Highways Agency VFM PFI PFI PFI SPVVFM Green Book 3) [] X 4) PFI VFM VFM VFM VFM PFI 5) VFM 6) 2.19 VFM VFM [] VFM PFI VFM VFM 17
36 [] 1) HM Treasury Taskforce Private FinancePartnerships for Prosperity The Private Finance Initiative1997 PFI ) Akintola AkintoyeMatthias Beck & Cliff HardcastlePUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP Managing risks and opportunities-blackwell Publishing2003 3) KPMGReport on identifying and measuring the differential tax receipts from Private Finance Initiative schemes for the purpose of economic evaluation against a Public Sector ComparatorHM TREASURY2002 4) ) Vol.27 CD-ROM2003 6) PFI VFM Vol.27CD-ROM ) VFM
37 PFI [] PFIVFM PFI 1) [] 2), 3) 5 PFI [] Highways Agency 30 PFI PFI 4) [] PFI 19
38 / Design BuildDBFO Partnering ) ) 20
39 [] PFI PFI Highways Agency PFI PFI PFI PFI [] PFI 6) [] 1) VFM ()2003 2) ) ) Highways AgencyValue for Money Manual1995 5) UK National Audit OfficeDepartment of Transport: Contracting for Roads1992 6) PFI PFI
40 PFI VFM [] PFI VFM 1.7 [] PFI / 30 / 60 1) ) PFI [] PFI Payment PFI PFI PFI PFI 22
41 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI P F I PFI 3) PFI PFI PFI PFIPFI Payment PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 23
42 PFI PaymentPFI PFIPayment PFI PFI PFI [] VFM NAOPFIVFM 1.6-1PFI 4) PFI PFI IT PFIDartford ETC 5) Fazakerley 6) DBFOM40 Fazakerley 6) 24
43 PSC VFM VFM West Middlesex Hospital The new Dartford and Gravesham hospital Falkirk % Balfron % Glasgow % West Lothian % Edinburgh % NAO: The PFI Contract for the Redevelopment of 4% West Middlesex Hospital, NAO: The PFI Contract for the new Dartford and 3% Gravesham hospital, 1999 *1 Audit Scotkand: Taking the Initiative Using PFI to Renew Council Schools, 2002 Highland % NAO: The Private Finance Initiative: the Contract to A74(M)/M % Complete and Operate the A74(M)/M74 in Scotland, 1999 M1-A % NAO: The Private Finance Initiative: The First Four A1M % Design Build Finance and Operate Roads Contracts, A419/A % 1999 *2 A % Bridgend % NAO: The PFI Contracts for Bridgend and Fazakerley % Fazakerley Prisons, 1997 MOD main building (748.5) % NAO: Ministry of Defence: Redevelopment of MOD main building, 2002 *3 The New British % NAO: The New British Embassy in Berlin, 2000 Embassy in Berlin NAO: The PRIME Project: the Transfer of the The PRIME Project % Department of Social Security Estate to the Private Sector, 1999 *4 Non-Combat Vehicles NAO: The Procurement of Non-Combat Vehicles for 23% the for the Royal Air Force, 1999 the Defence Fixed NAO: The Private Finance Initiative: The Contract Tele- communications System % for the Defence Fixed Telecommunications System, 2000 *4 IT the National Insurance Recording System % NAO: The Contributions Agency: the Contract to Develop and Operate the National Insurance Recording System *5 NAO: National Savings: Public Private Partnership with Siemens Business Services, 2000 NAO: Public Private Partnerships: Airwave-Police Radio System, 2002 Airwave-Police Radio 1,610 1,470 9% System *1: NAO PSC *2: PSC PSC Halcrow *3: VFM PSC mid-point 748.5m *4: PSC *5: VFM 59 : IPPR: Audit reports on value for money in the PFI, ) [] PFI PFI PFI 25
44 [] 8) 9) DBFO DBFO 10) VFM A69 11) PFI [] 1) BTO PFI 2) 3) 4) Payment PFI 5) PSC VFM VFM 6) Highways Agency PFI PFI [] 1) ( 2) ( 3) PFI No ) NAOPFI: Construction Performance2003 5) Dartford River Crossing HP ( 6) NAOThe PFI Contracts for Bridgend and Fazakerley Prisons
45 7) IPPRAudit reports on value for money in the PFI2002 ( ble.doc) 8) 1999 ( 9) () ( 10) Highways AgencyDBFO - Value in Roads ) NAOThe Private Finance Initiative: The First Four Design, Build, Finance and Operate Roads Contracts
46 PFI VFM PFI PFI PFI 23 1) 28
47 PFI PFI PFIPFI PFI Fast Track PFIPFIPFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 29
48 PFI PFIPFI PFIPFI affordability PFI PFI ) PFI PFI PFI PFI Fast Track PFI CarlisleMillbankA74(M)/M74 DBFO PFI ) BOT 40,000US$ ) Skye Bridge ) Highways Agency 8 DBFOPFI 30
49 PFI PFI PFI Highways Agency PFIHighways Agency DBFO 6) PFI 7) PFIPFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI Fazakerley Bridgend 25 Lowdham Grange 8) PFI Highways AgencyEarly Design Build PFI 31
50 9), 10) 11) PFI 12) PFI PFI 1999 (1) (2) ) PFI PFI 32
51 VE PFI 1) 2000 ()2000 2) PFI 3) NAO The Private Finance Initiative: The Contract to Complete and Operate the A74(M)/M74 Motorway in Scotland1999 4) () ) NAOThe Skye Bridge1997 6) PPP ()2004 7) PFI ) Private Finance PanelReport on the procurement of custodial services for the DCMF at Bridgend and Fazakerley1996 9) ) ) () ) ( 13) 15 7 ( 33
52 PFI PFI [] PFI PFI PFI [] VFM PSC PSC PSC ) [] PFI 34
53 2) PFIPSC ABC(Activity-based Costing) 3) [] PFI PFI PSC PFI 35
54 PFI [] 1) ) Vol.27CD-ROM )
55 ( PFI VFM
56
57 VFM VFMPSCPFI LCC VFM(Value For Money)PFI PFI VFM PFI VFM VFM VFM VFMVFM VFM VFM PFI VFM VFM (Best Value) PFI VFM VFM VFM PSC PFI PFI LCC PFI LCC PSC PFI VFM PSC PFI LCC PSC VFMPSCPFI LCC VFM=(PSC-PFI LCC)/PSC100% VFM PSC PFI LCC VFM VFM VFM PSC PFI LCC 37
58 2.1-1 PSC PFI LCC VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM PFI PFI VFM PFI PFI PFI VFM LCC VFM PFI VFM PFI VFM VFM VFM VFM PFI VFM VFM 38
59 VFM VFM VFM PFI VFM VFM PFI VFM VFM VFM PFI PFI VFM VFM PFI VFM 39
60 VFM VFM PFI VFM VFM PFI VFMTreasury Taskforce VFM Treasury Taskforce:"Value for Money Drivers in the Private Finance Initiative-A Report by Andersen and Enterprise LSE"2000 2) VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM 1) VFMValue For Money ) Treasury TaskforceValue for Money Drivers in the Private Finance Initiative-A Report by Andersen and Enterprise LSE2000 3) PFI PFI VFM
61 VFM VFM PFI VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM PSC PFI PFI LCC VFM PFI VFM PFI PFI VFM PFI BOT PFI PFI LCC PFI PFI VFM 41
62 PFI PFI VFM PSC PFI LCC VFM VFM VFM VFM PSC VFM PSC PFI LCC PFI PFI PSC PFI PFI LCC 1) VFMValue For Money ) PFI PFI VFM ) PFI PFI
63 VFM VFM VFMVFMPSC PFILCCPFI PSCPFILCCVFM PFI VFM PFI Financially Free Standing (Services Sold to the Public Sector) (Joint Venture) PFI Financially Free Standing Joint Venture Services Sold to Public Sector PFI 2 43
64 PFI PFI 2 3 PFI PFI 3 VFM PSC PFI LCC PFI IRR 3 VFM PSC PFI PFI VFM PFI PFI LCC VFM 1) VFMValue For Money ) PFI ) Treasury TaskforcePublic Sector Comparators and Value For MoneyPolicy Statement No ) PFI
65 VFM PFI VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM PFI PFI VFM VFM PFI LCCPFI LCC LCCPSC VFM VFM VFM PSC PFI LCC VFM VFM VFM VFM PSC VFM PFI PFI VFM 45
66 PFI VFM PFI VFM PFI VFM PFI VFM VFM PFI VFM PFI LCC PFI PSC VFM PSC PSC VFM PSC VFM VFM PFI VFM 1) PFI ) VFMValue for Money
67 VFM 1) VFM ) H M TreasuryThe Green Book3) Green Book )
68 PFI VFM The Green Book SPC 1) ) Stiglitz, J. E.: Economics of the Public Sector (3rd Ed.), ) HM Treasury: The Green Book, Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government, ) Vol.27CD-ROM
69 PSC PSC PFI VFM PSC PFI PSC PSC PSC 49
70 PSC PSC 1VFMValue for Money PFI ()
71 PSC LCC PSC PFILCC () () ( ) () () (PSC )
72 PSC 1) 16 ()
73 PFI PSC VFM PSC
74 2.8-2 () : 13 2 ()() PFI 1) ) 13 54
75 VFM PSC PSC PSC VFM PSC PSC PSC PFILCC PFILCC PSC PFILCC PFILCC 55
76 PSC 1) PSC VFM PSC PFI PSC PSC PFI PFILCC 2) PSC PSC PFI 1) )
77 PFI LCC VFM PSC PFI LCC PFI VFM PSC PFI LCC PFI LCC () PFI LCC No PFI PFI PSC PFI SPC SPC PFI VFM () 57
78 No PFI ( )PSC BOT BOT/BTO BOT PFI PSC PFI VFM % PFILCC PFI VFM ( ) PFI PFI LCC PFI 58
79 () 80 ( 50) PFI 100PFI PFI PFI LCC LCC PFI_LCC () PFI () PFI PFI PFI () 59
80 PFI 1) 2) VFM 15 6 VFMValue For Money ) PFI () 60
81 IRRDSCR VFM PFI LCC PFI LCC VFM VFM PSCPFI LCC PSC PFI LCC PFI VFM PFI LCC PSC PFI LCC PFI LCC IRR DSCR PFI VFM 15 6 VFM VFM PSCPFILCC VFM VFM PFIVFM IRREIRRDSCR LLCR 61
82 PFI PFI BOT PFI PFI 63 PFI PFI 15 PFI IRR DSCR PFI PFI PFI 23 1) VFM ) PFI PFI VFM ) PFI ) VFMValue For Money ) PFI ) PFI ) PPPPFI
83 VFM 16 3 PFI 146 VFM VFM PFI VFM PFI VFM PFIPPP PFIPPP PFI VFM PSC 28 PFI LCC VFM VFM VFM VFM 25 9 VFM VFM2 VFM VFMVFM 15 6 VFM 63
84 PFI VFM 64
85 PFI VFM 65
86 PFI VFM PPPPFI
87 VFM PFI PFI LCC PFI VFM VFM PSC PFI LCC VFM VFM PSC PFI LCC VFM PSC PFI LCC PFI VFM VFM VFM PFI PFI LCC PFI LCC PSC VFM PFI 67
88 PSC PSC VFM PSC PFI VFM PFI LCC IRR DSCR VFM 1) PPPPFI ) VFMValue For Money ) VFM 15 6 PFI ) PFI
89 VFM PSC PFI LCC VFM (2) PSC PFI LCC VFM PFI BTO 20 69
90 VFM JAPIC 60 BTO VFM BTO PFI PFI PFI PFI VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM 0VFM 0 VFM 0 PFI X VFM winwin JAPICVFM 0 56VFM 0 5 VFM PFI PFI Competitive Neutrality Policy1997 PFI 1) PFI ) PFI ) State Government of VictoriaCompetitive Neutrality
91 PSC PFILCC PFI PSC () PFI PSC PFILCC VFM 2.7 PSC PFI PFI PSC 71
92 PFI PFI () - PFI - PSC - - 1) ) PFI
93 PFI PFI PFI PFI P FI VFM PSC PFI LCC PFI PFI PFI PFI VFM PFI LCC PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 1) BOOBOT 20 LCC 113 PFI 34 LCC PFI 23 BTO BOT PFI 32 LCC 73
94 PFI PFI VFM BTO PFI BOT BTO PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI 10 PFI PFI VFM 348 PFI ) PFI Vol.27CD-ROM
95 PFI VFM [] PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI VFM VFM [] VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM 1) VFM VFM VFM VFM VFMVFM PFI PFI PFI CPM (Critical Path Method) 75
96 PFI VFM VFM PFI B/C<1 PFI B/C>1 PFI VFM VFM VFM ) VFM VFMVFM VFMVFM VFMVFM PFIJVPFI PFI N PFI t PFI 0 K N 1 PFI T T + K + k T + N 1 PFI T k PFI N N N T T 0 K+k K+k K T+K+k T+K+k K T+N-1 T+N-1 N-1 t b1t b2t b4t t c1t c2t c4t 76
97 )VFM PFIVFMVFM ++ 2 b 2t c 2t T + N + k + [( ) ] 1 k T b2t c2t VFM ++ = VFM + 1+ r 1 NPV2 + t k 1+ r t= T + N ( ) T NPV NPV VFM VFM VFMVFM PFI VFM [] PFI PFIVFM (2003)VFM VFM VFM VFMVFM VFMVFM VFMVFM PFI [] [] 1) VFMValue For Money ) PFI VFM Vol.27CD-ROM
98 VFM PFI PSC PFI PSC VFM PFILCC PFI VFM PSCPSC PSC Highways Agency 25 PFILCC PSC PFILCC 78
99 PSC PFI PFI VFM PSC PSC LCC 1) 2) VFMValue For Money
100 PFI VFM PFI [] VFM Treasury Taskforce VFM VFM VFM VFM PFI PSCPublic Sector Comparator PFI Treasury Taskforce: Value for Money Drivers in the Private Finance Initiative, 2000 VFM 18 PFI
101 PFI [] PFI PFI PFI [] [] 1) Treasury TaskforceValue for Money Drivers in the Private Finance Initiative-A Report by Andersen and Enterprise LSE2000 2) David VoseRisk Analysis A Quantitative Guide, John Wiley & Sons ) The Institution of Civil Engineers and Faculty of Actuaries and Institute of ActuariesRisk Analysis and Management for ProjectThomas Telford1998 4)
102 VFM VFM VFM 3 VFM VFM PFI VFM VFM 1) VFM 2) VFM VFM 1) PFI 2) 3) VFM VFM PFI PSCPFILCC VFM PFI PFI PFI SPC VFM VFM VFM PFI SPC PFI VFM VFM PFI VFM 82
103 VFM VFM VFM VFM PFI VFM PFI PFI DBFO PFI SPC PFI SPC 83
104 SPC SPC PFI 3) VFM VFM DBFO PFI VFM VFM VFM 1) VFMValue For Money ) PFI PFI VFM ) PFI VFM Vol.27CD-ROM
105 PFI
106
107 ) PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI VFM VFM PFI
108
109 PFI PFI PFI PFISpecial Purpose Company, SPCPFI PFI PFI 87
110 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI SPC 1) ) : No pp ) PFI ) PFI PFI ) PFI ) ) PFI Vol
111 PFI PFI 89
112 90 VFM PFI PFI H
113 ) 2.5 2) ) 3.8 ISMInterpretive Structural Modeling
114 3.2-1 ISM PFI PFI
115
116 15 PFI 1) PFI ) PFI PFI ) Vol )
117 PSCPFILCC 2.2 VFM PFI VFM SPC PFI BOT 95
118 Avoidance Abatement Retention Transfer VFM PSC 96
119 3.13 VFM ) PFI ) BOT Vol.8No
120 PFI PFI PFI 3.1 PFI PFI PFI
121 PFI PFI PFI 100 PFI PFI
122 PFI PFI 100 PFI PFI 100 AT 100
123 1) 3.3 1) PFI ) No.693 VI ) PFI
124 PFIPFI PFI PFI PFI Treasury Taskforce PFI VFM PFI PFI PFI PFI
125 3.5-1 PFI BTO Kirklee A B PFI Skye 30 Eastern Distributor 5 A$ DBFO CPI RPI 103
126 3.5-1 SHT ( ) QEmax20 max27, max30 M2 IRR max45 Melbourne City Link CPI Case1: Case2: Case3: DBFO LRT A:, B:, C:, D: DBFO Dockland LRT 104
127 PFI PFI 1) Treasury Taskforce"Value for Money Drivers in the Private Finance Initiative-A Report by Andersen and Enterprise LSE2000 2) PFI PFI ) NAOThe Skye Bridge1997 4) RTAEastern Distributor Summary of contracts1998 5) Highways AgencyValue in Roads1997 6) Sydney Harbour Tunnel 7) PICKO 8) The Institution of Civil EngineersSecond Severn Crossing1997 9) M2 10) TransurbanMelbourne City Link 105
128 PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI BOT DBFO VFM PFI 106
129 3.6-1 DBFO UK Tn.Aus Br.UK A13DBFO UK R R Q Q R R Q Q PFI SPC
130 BOTPFI PFI DBFO Q R R Q
131 PFI VE 1) M6 Toll 2) Shoji.Y(2000) 3) 1) PFI ) Shoji.YTheoretical Analysis on Traffic Volume Risk in PFI Transport Projects,
132 1 PFI PFI [] [ ] 2) PFI ) PFI 110
133 PFI CAT 111
134 PFI 4) % 5) gal
135
136 PFI 114
137 PFI PFI PFI 1) 2) PFI ) 4) PFI )
138 PFI PFI VFM SPC PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI PFI BOT PFI PFI 116
139 PFI PFI TUPE Transfer, Undertaking and Protection of EmploymentPFI 2000 PFI PFI SPC PFI SPC BOTBTOJV BOT SPC 3 FEM 1) PFI )
140 PFI 2.1 PFI VFM PFI PFI VFM PFI PFI PFI PFI VFM PFI VFM 118
141 P-I : probability-impact score 1), 2) probability impact NIL (0) VLO (0.05) LO (0.15) MED (0.25) HI (0.35) 119 VHI (0.45) VHI (0.8) HI (0.4) PI 1.0 MED (0.2) PI 1.0 LO (0.1) VLO (0.05) PI 0.05 NIL (0)
142 PSC PFI-LCC PFI PFI-LCC PFI 1-5) 120
143 Excel 90 PSC PSC PSC PFI PSC PFI-LCC
144 1) 911 2) 3) PERT 4) 5) Palisade BestFitRISK Decisioneering Batch FitCrystal Ball 6) Palisade RISK Decisioneering Crystal Ball 1) David VoseRisk Analysis A Quantitative GuideJohn Wiley & Sons ) PMBOK
145 PFI PFI VFM VFM VFM VFMVFM PFIVFM VFM PFI PFI VFM VFM PFI PFI PFI VFM PFI PFI 123
146 PFI PFI PFI PFI / PFI PFI PFI VFM VFM PFI PFILCCPSC VFM=PSC-PFILCC VFM
147 VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM VFMPr[VFM>0]VFM 10 Pr[VFM>10] Value at Risk VFM VaR Pr[VFM>x]=90 x 90 VFM x Distribution for VFM VFM VFM=9.11 Pr[VFM>10]=75 95 VaR= VFM VFM VFM VFM VFM PFI PFI IRR: Internal Rate of ReturnNPV: Net Present ValuerIRRNPV IRR NPV IRR> NPV>0 IRR= NPV=0 IRR< NPV<0 125
148 IRRVFMIRRNPV IRRNPV IRR NPV IRR1 2%IRR 10 DSCR DSCR 1.0 DSCR>1.0 DSCRDSCR DSCR DSCR ) VFM NPVDSCR ) / // - 126
149 * PERT * 3) PERT (Availability) (Representativeness) (Adjustment and Anchoring) 127
150 ) χ K-SK-S A-D 3) Ball PFI PFI 1)3.9 3) 2) 10VFMPSC-PFILCC/PSC VFM PFILCC PSC VFM 10 3) RISK BestFit Crystal Ball Batch Fit 1) PFI ) VFM 1 VFM ) David VoseRisk Analysis - A Quantitative Guide-John Wiley Sons ) )
151 PFI PFI , 0, Crystal Ball
152 =0.6 =0.6 1) y=ax+b y=triang(-0.28x+57, -0.46x+74.5, -0.42x+88) : y=normal(-0.46x+74.5, 8.16) y=uniform(-0.28x+57, -0.42x+ 88)
153 PFI {},{ } ( a11, a12, p11, p12 ) ({ a21, a22},{ p21, p22} ) = { } { } + = ({ a11 + a21, a11 + a22, a12 + a21, a12 + a22},{ p11 p21, p11 p22, p12 p21, p12 p22}) = p p ( a + a ) + p p ( a + a ) + p p ( a + a ) + p p ( a + a ) ( a11, L, a1 m, p11, L, p1 m ) ({ a21, L, a2n},{ p21, L, p2n} ) ({ } { }) { } { } 1 i 1 i a 2 j p 2 j = a 1 i + a2 j p1 ip2 j i = + { } { } ( ) ({ } { }) ( L L ) = a, p +,, = 1,, n; j = 1,, m = m n p1 ip2 j( a1 i + a2 j) i= 1 j= m m m m ( aij, p ), ( 1,, ) i ij a i ij p i ij j L i i ni i= 1 i= 1 i= 1 = = = n1 nm m m = L pij a i ij 1 i j = jm = i= i= { } { } 131
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