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1 DEIM Forum 2015 D ( ) com,,,, Market Share Estimation based on Statistics of Search Engine Suggests Takakazu IMADA,IchiroMORIYA, Yusuke INOUE,TakehitoUTSURO, Yasuhide KAWADA, and Noriko KANDO Grad. Sch. of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba Japan Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba Japan Logworks Co., Ltd. Tokyo , Japan National Institute of Informatics, Tokyo , Japan 1. Google Yahoo! Bing Yahoo! JAPAN /
2 1 1 SONY 6.com 7.com 6 7
3 2.com.com.com.com AND ASUS Lenovo NEC SONY AND AND
4 3 p p P(q j,s,n) s S(q j,p) n o S(q j,p)= s S p P(q j,s,n) q j D(q j) D 1 ASUS 838 5,253 Lenovo 840 5,296 NEC 902 6,611 SONY 812 5, , , , , , ,540 60,919 q j(j =1,...,10) 2. 3 Google , S s S s q j AND N p P(q j,s,n)( N =10 ) D(q j) [ D(q j)= s S P(qj,s,N) Yahoo! Search BOSS API AND D = [ j D(q j) (LDA; Latent Dirichlet Allocation) [3] LDA w V w(w V ) K z n (n =1,...,K) w P (w z n)(w V ) b z n P (z n b) (n =1,...,K) GibbsLDA++ 11 LDA α β GibbsLDA++ α =50/K β =0.1 LDA K Gibbs 2,000 w V Wikipedia 12 GibbsLDA++ z n P (w z n) w W W = D K 1 d (d D) z n (n =1,...,K) D(z n) n o D(z n)= d D z n = argmax P (z u d) z u (u=1,...,k) d ,000
5 d q j D(z n,q j) D(z n,q j)=d(z n) D(q j) 3. 3 q j z n D(z n,q j) S(z n,q j) S(z n,q j)= [ p D(z n,q j ) S(q j,p) z n q j(j = 1,...,10) S(z n,q j) D z n D(z n) z n D(z n) P (z n d) (1) P (z n d) θ lbd D(z k,q j,θ lbd ) D(z k,q j,θ lbd )= n d D(z n,q j) o P (z n d) > = θ lbd S(z n,q j,θ lbd ) S(z n,q j,θ lbd )= [ p D(z n,q j,θ lbd ) S(q j,p) (2) P (z n d) N lbd D(z n,q j,n ubd ) S(z n,q j,n ubd ) S(z n,q j,n ubd )= [ p D(z n,q j,n ubd ) S(q j,p) (θ lbd =0.4 ) (1) S(z n,q j,θ lbd ) rate(z n,q j,θ lbd )= X S(z n,q j,θ lbd ) i S(z n,q i,θ lbd ) (2) S(z n,q j,n ubd ) rate(z n,q j,n ubd )= X S(z n,q j,n ubd ) i S(z n,q i,n ubd ) θ lbd N ubd θ lbd =0.4 θ lbd = % SONY 21% 19% Lenovo 23% ASUS 21% NEC 20% 4. 2.com.com com 7 9.com ( ) 13 θ lbd =0.4 θ lbd =0.1.com 14
6 6.com ( ) 7.com ( ) ( ) Twitter [12] [1] Twitter [4] [2] Twitter Wikipedia [6] [9] Wikipedia [10] Twitter Wikipedia
7 8.com ( ) 9.com ( ) [13] [5,7,8] 1,000 [11] Wikipedia Wikipedia Wikipedia [11]
8 5 (θ lbd =0.1 ) , [8],,,,,,,.. 20, pp , [9].., Vol. J96-B, No. 12, pp , [10] H. S. Moat, C. Curme, A. Avakian, D. Y. Kenett, H. E. Stanley, and T. Preis. Quantifying Wikipedia usage patterns before stock market moves. Scientic Reports, Vol. 3, No. 1801, [11],,,,,. Wikipedia. 6 DEIM, [12],. Twitter. 28, [13],. Web PR., Vol. 54, No. 11, pp , com [1],,. Twitter catches the flu:., Vol NL 201,, [2] S. Asur and B. A. Huberman. Predicting the future with social media. In Proc. WI-IAT, pp , [3] D. M. Blei, A. Y. Ng, and M. I. Jordan. Latent Dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, Vol.3, pp , [4] J. Bollen, H. Mao, and X. Zeng. Twitter mood predicts the stock market. Journal of Computational Science, Vol.2, No. 1, pp. 1 8, [5],,,,,.. 29, [6],,,,,,,. Web., Vol.29,No.5,pp , [7],,,,,,.
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