供給ショックと短期の物価変動

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1 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 03-J-008

2 RIETI Discussion Paper Series 03-J-008 * RIETI * : RIETI

3 The Relationship between Relative-Price Changes and Inflation: Evidence from Six Countries Tsutomu Watanabe Hitotsubashi University Kaoru Hosono Gakushuin University Mariko Yokote Hitotsubashi University April 25, 2003 Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between the cross-sectional skewness of price changes and the rate of inflation using the CPI data of six countries and regions, including Japan, U.S., U.K., Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. We find a significant positive correlation between the two in the monthly time-series data in each country, but fail to find a similar correlation in the five-year-average cross-country data. The mean-skewness correlation exists in the short-run but disappears in the long-run, which is consistent with the sticky-price model developed by Ball and Mankiw (1995). We also find that relative price changes in each country tend to have a common factor in the sense that items belonging to the upper and lower tails of the price-change distribution are the same across countries, which implies the importance of global supply shocks in relative-price fluctuations. JEL Classification Numbers: E31, E52 Keywords: Supply shocks, relative-price changes, inflation, sticky prices Correspondence: Tsutomu Watanabe, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo , Japan. Phone: , fax: ,

4 IT IT Friedman (1975) 6 3 Ball and Mankiw (1995) 4 Benigno (2001) Ball and Mankiw (1995) (Skewness) Friedman (1975) 6 Friedman 2 2

5 Gordon Benigno Friedman Ball Gordon (1975) and Mankiw (1995) Ball-Mankiw Woodford (2001), Benigno (2001), Aoki (2001) Calvo (1983) 2 A B A 10 A B 10 A Ball-Mankiw A B A B B Friedman (1975) A B A 1 Gordon Benigno A B B A B (2002) Calvo A B 2 Friedman Friedman Benigno A B A B Benigno 1 1 A B A B 5 B 5 1/2 A 3

6 Ball-Mankiw 2 Balke and Wynne (2000) Ball-Mankiw Ball-Mankiw IT Ball- Mankiw Friedman Ball-Mankiw Balke-Wynne Ball-Mankiw Bryan and Cecchetti (1999) Ball-Mankiw 1 Ball-Mankiw Ball-Makiw Ball and Mankiw (1995) 169 idiosyncratic idiosyncratic idiosyncratic 4

7 CPI Kernel density estimate Silverman (1986) 5

8 s(x) s(x) 0-10 s(x) 0 +5 s(x) s(x) s(x) s(x) s(x) /100 X i /100 ν i 15 i i 15 ω i, s(x) 15 s(0.15) s(x) X ω i ν i (1) i I L I R X Ball and Mankiw (1995) I L I R Ball-Mankiw I L {j ν j (,L]}; I R {j ν j [R, )} (2) s(x) L ν i (,L] Ball-Mankiw X ±10 R ν i (R, ] X (1)-(2)

9 s(0.15) s s s s s s Blinder and Yellen (2001) Mankiw (2002) IT t π t t s(0.15) s t [1] π t π t 1 s t 7 π t s t 1993 [1] s t 6 X 0.15 X Blinder and Yellen (2001)

10 s t [1]-[8] s t [2] x t 8 4 s t s t s t 9 [3] [4] s t x t 3.2 [1] [2] π t 1 1 NAIRU [3] [4] π t π t 1 [1] 70 [2] s t 80 De Long (1997) Hooker s t (1999) [5]-[8] π t s t 1 [1] [5] s t [6]-[8] 2 [2]-[4] µ t s t [1]-[4] s t [1] s t [1] ) Ball and Mankiw (1995) s t s t [5]-[8] (1)-(2) ν (,L] 8 x t ν (R, ] HP ν (L, R) 9 s Nishizaki and Watanabe (2000) Mio (2001) 10 (2002) 1 Skewness σ 8

11 Skewness X [1]-[4] s ω i [νi 3 /σ 3 t ] (3) [5]-[8] i Ball and Mankiw (1995) Q X ν i ω i ν i (4) i 5 (4) (1)-(2) (1)- (2) L R (4) s t [1] s t [1] Q [2] Skewness [1] [2] s t Skewness Q s t [1] s t s t s t Friedman (1975) [2]-[8] s t [1]-[4] 11 s t 3.587/( ) = CPI [1] 0.507/( ) = [5]-[8] 12 Ball and Mankiw (1995) /3 9

12 Ball and Mankiw (1995) Bryan and Cecchetti (1999) Ball-Mankiw s com (X) 6 X s com (X) ω i ν i (6) i (I L IL 5 6 ) (I R IR ) π s x µ I L I R (2) IL I R π it = φ 1 s it + φ 2 x it + φ 3 µ it + ² it (5) 13 i t 5 µ it IL {j ν j (,L ]} ; IR {j ν j [R, )} (7) [1] [2] s it [2] x it 1 (6) s com (X) =s(x) [3] [4] s it s com (X) =0 s com (X) 2 [7]-[8] Ball-Mankiw Balke and Wynne (2000) s(0.15) 13 s com (0.15) 10

13 2 s com s(0.15) s com (0.15) s s com 7 s s com s s com s s com s s com s com 3.1 s 7 1 s s s com 2.2 s s s s com s t [1] s s com s t s s

14 s t s t 1 s t 16 5 [1] (2002) [2] Aoki, Kosuke (2001). Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes. Journal of Monetary Economics 48, [3] Balke, Nathan S., and Mark A. Wynne (2000). An equilibrium analysis of relative price 1 changes and aggregate inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics 45(2), [4] Ball, Laurence, and N. Gregory Mankiw (1995). Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics 100, [5] Barsky, Robert B., and Lutz Kilian (2001). Do we really know that oil caused the great stagflation? A monetary alternative. NBER Working Paper [6] Benigno, Pierpaolo (2001). Optimal monetary policy in a currency area. New York University. 2 [7] Bernanke, B.S., M. Gertler, and M.W. Watson (1997). Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. BrookingsPaperson Economic Activity, 1, [8] Blinder, Allan S., and Janet L. Yellen (2001). IT The Fabulous Decade: Macroeconomic Lessons from the 1990s. The Century Foundation Press [9] Bryan, Michael F., and Stephen G. Cecchetti (1999). Inflation and the distribution of price changes. Review of Economics and Statistics 81(2), [10] Calvo, Guillermo (1983). Staggered prices in a 16 7 s com utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics 12, s

15 [11] De Long, Bradford J. (1997). America s paecetime inflation: the 1970s. in Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, edited by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [12] Friedman, Milton (1975). Perspectives on Inflation. Newsweek, June 24, 1975, 73. [13] Gordon, Robert J. (1975). Alternative responses of policy to external supply shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1975:1, [14] Hooker, Mark A. (1999). Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime. Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series [15] Mankiw, N. Gregory (2002). U.S. monetary policy during the 1990s. in American Economic Policy in the 1990s, editedbyjeffrey A. Frankel and Peter R. Orszag. The MIT Press. [16] Mio, Hitoshi (2001). The Phillips curve and underlying inflation. Monetary and Economic Studies, May 2001, [17] Nishizaki, Kenji, and Tsutomu Watanabe (2000). Output-inflation trade-off at near-zero inflation rates. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 14, [18] Silverman, B. W. (1986). Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. Chapman & Hall. [19] Woodford, Michael (2001). Inflation stabilization and welfare. NBER Working Paper

16 1 CPI π t (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) s t (0.060) (0.063) (0.037) (0.036) (0.067) (0.065) (0.057) (0.056) x t (0.009) (0.009) (0.015) (0.015) R π t (0.007) (0.006) (0.013) (0.013) s t (0.038) (0.038) (0.028) (0.025) (0.065) (0.069) (0.054) (0.057) x t (0.005) (0.005) (0.015) (0.017) R π t (0.010) (0.011) (0.009) (0.010) s t (0.061) (0.066) (0.046) (0.047) (0.076) (0.089) (0.067) (0.071) x t (0.024) (0.023) (0.027) (0.026) R : π t s t [1]-[4] CPI [5]-[8] 14

17 1 CPI π t (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) s t (0.089) (0.089) (0.064) (0.065) (0.071) (0.072) (0.054) (0.054) x t (0.013) (0.013) (0.015) (0.016) R [1] [3] [5] [7] π t (0.011) (0.011) s t (0.083) (0.069) (0.074) (0.056) R π t (0.027) (0.027) (0.029) (0.029) s t (0.088) (0.088) (0.098) (0.098) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) x t (0.006) (0.007) (0.005) (0.007) R

18 2 π t (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.010) s t (0.059) (0.063) (0.039) (0.038) (0.068) (0.067) (0.064) (0.063) x t (0.008) (0.009) (0.015) (0.015) µ t (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) R π t (0.007) (0.007) (0.013) (0.014) s t (0.039) (0.039) (0.028) (0.025) (0.065) (0.069) (0.055) (0.058) x t (0.005) (0.005) (0.015) (0.017) µ t (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.010) (0.010) (0.011) (0.011) R π t (0.015) (0.015) (0.012) (0.012) s t (0.044) (0.048) (0.042) (0.045) (0.047) (0.051) (0.045) (0.049) x t (0.021) (0.021) (0.018) (0.018) µ t (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) R : π t s t [1]-[4] CPI [5]-[8] 16

19 2 CPI π t (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.012) s t (0.089) (0.089) (0.068) (0.068) (0.071) (0.072) (0.057) (0.057) x t (0.013) (0.014) (0.016) (0.016) µ t (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) R [1] [3] [5] [7] π t (0.013) (0.012) s t (0.121) (0.106) (0.090) (0.075) µ t (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) R π t (0.027) (0.027) (0.030) (0.030) s t (0.088) (0.088) (0.099) (0.099) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) x t (0.006) (0.007) (0.005) (0.007) µ t (0.006) (0.006) (0.008) (0.008) (0.006) (0.006) (0.007) (0.008) R

20 3 CPI π t (0.006) (0.006) (0.009) (0.009) Q t (0.038) (0.034) (0.025) (0.025) Skewness t (0.071) (0.070) (0.165) (0.163) R π t (0.006) (0.005) (0.013) (0.012) Q t (0.081) (0.066) (0.086) (0.077) Skewness t (0.045) (0.043) (0.172) (0.167) R π t (0.009) (0.009) (0.008) (0.008) Q t (0.142) (0.118) (0.171) (0.159) Skewness t (0.244) (0.228) (0.250) (0.244) R : Q t Skewness t π t Q t Skewness t [1]-[4] CPI [5]-[8] 18

21 3 CPI π t (0.008) (0.008) (0.009) (0.008) Q t (0.043) (0.043) (0.024) (0.021) Skewness t (0.174) (0.172) (0.244) (0.244) R π t (0.011) (0.010) (0.011) (0.010) Q t (0.137) (0.116) (0.103) (0.081) Skewness t (0.241) (0.213) (0.267) (0.236) R π t (0.028) (0.030) (0.034) (0.029) Q t (0.155) (0.168) (0.078) (0.072) Skewness t (0.226) (0.239) (0.235) (0.237) R

22 4 CPI π t (0.010) (0.010) (0.008) (0.007) s t (0.060) (0.060) (0.032) (0.032) (0.064) (0.056) (0.047) (0.041) x t (0.007) (0.007) (0.008) (0.008) R π t (0.007) (0.007) (0.009) (0.008) s t (0.049) (0.046) (0.034) (0.033) (0.066) (0.062) (0.042) (0.040) x t (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007) R π t (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) s t (0.059) (0.062) (0.049) (0.049) (0.099) (0.103) (0.086) (0.085) x t (0.027) (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) R : π t s t [1]-[4] CPI [5]-[8] 20

23 4 CPI π t (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) s t (0.094) (0.095) (0.074) (0.075) (0.097) (0.095) (0.065) (0.065) x t (0.013) (0.013) (0.012) (0.012) R [1] [3] [5] [7] π t (0.010) (0.010) s t (0.066) (0.062) (0.060) (0.046) R π t (0.023) (0.023) (0.030) (0.030) s t (0.107) (0.108) (0.112) (0.112) (0.070) (0.070) (0.070) (0.070) x t (0.005) (0.005) (0.006) (0.008) R

24 [1] [2] [1] [2] [1] [2] [1] [2] π t (0.094) (0.092) (0.227) (0.193) (0.124) (0.140) (0.041) (0.043) s t (0.610) (0.591) (1.041) (0.846) (0.917) (0.912) (0.180) (0.196) x t (0.064) (0.053) (0.147) (0.028) R [1] [2] [1] [2] [1] [2] [1] [2] π t (0.057) (0.050) (0.171) (0.157) (0.071) (0.066) (0.061) (0.050) s t (0.416) (0.360) (1.613) (1.485) (0.440) (0.386) (0.453) (0.364) x t (0.030) (0.047) (0.041) (0.034) R : π t s t CPI 22

25 6 CPI s it (1.232) (1.307) (1.902) (2.735) (0.885) (0.887) (1.170) (1.418) x it (1.678) (1.903) (1.785) (1.896) µ it (0.101) (0.146) (0.095) (0.120) R : (5) π s x µ π t s t [1]-[4] CPI [5]-[8] 23

26 7 s s com s s s s s s s com s com s com s com s com s s s s s s s com s com s com s com s com :

27 8 CPI π t (0.027) (0.027) (0.040) (0.038) s t (0.107) (0.106) (0.076) (0.078) (0.124) (0.117) (0.103) (0.105) x t (0.008) (0.009) (0.015) (0.013) J p-value (0.242) (0.264) (0.732) (0.602) (0.594) (0.610) (0.625) (0.636) π t (0.016) (0.011) (0.030) (0.035) s t (0.106) (0.085) (0.062) (0.049) (0.187) (0.225) (0.084) (0.096) x t (0.008) (0.008) (0.026) (0.028) π t (0.059) (0.106) (0.019) (0.021) s t (0.487) (0.876) (0.164) (0.143) (0.272) (0.317) (0.191) (0.175) x t (0.122) (0.032) (0.039) (0.039) 8 : s t π t s t s com [1]-[4] CPI t [5]-[8] 25

28 8 CPI π t (0.039) (0.037) (0.039) (0.040) s t (0.383) (0.367) (0.349) (0.340) (0.307) (0.316) (0.618) (0.624) x t (0.016) (0.018) (0.027) (0.034) [1] [3] [5] [7] π t (0.020) (0.021) s t (0.225) (0.210) (0.238) (0.183) π t (0.050) (0.049) (0.379) (0.368) s t (0.270) (0.270) (0.249) (0.251) (1.225) (1.183) (0.335) (0.331) x t (0.008) (0.007) (0.013) (0.007) 26

29 A A.1 A.1.1 A.2 A1 : 12 CD-ROM : U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumer (CPI-U), U.S. City Average : 2000 : U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Comsumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. City Average : National Statistics, Consumer Price Indices, Retail Price Index (RPI) : Korea National Statistical Office, Consumer Price Index Monthly, All Cities Consumer Price Index : Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong, Monthly Report on the Consumer Price Index, Consumer Price Index (A) : National Statistics of Taiwan, the Republic of China, Price Statistics Monthly in Taiwan Area of the Republic of China, Consumer Price Index : : 2000 : 2000 : : 1996 A.3 4 IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS) CD-ROM Ministry of Economic Affair, Department of Statistics, Industrial Production Statistics Monthly, Index of Industrial Production, General index A.1.2 A : Money Quasi-Money IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS) CD-ROM A2 : 12 M longtime/index.htm (table2) : M /mar03tab.htm (tabela4.2) 27

30 : Money Quasi-Money IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS) CD-ROM : M2 Hong Kong Dollar msb/new msb tables b.thm (table2.3.1) : M2, Statistics/FS/history/EMS-H.xls Tram fares Mass Transit Railway Fares Light Rail Transit Fares 3 -JR 2 CPI B B Fresh Fruit Apple Banana Apple Banana Fresh Fruit B.2 All Items Less Food and Energy B.3 s com s com 1 Ferry Fares 28

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