対外開放政策推進下の中国における物価動向に関する研究
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1 Title 対外開放政策推進下の中国における物価動向に関する研究 Author(s) 南川, 高範 Issue Date DOI /doctoral.k11065 Doc URL Type theses (doctoral) File Information Takanori_Minamikawa.pdf Instructions for use Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Aca
2 Study on Price Level and Excess Money under Open Door Policy in China MINAMIKAWA Takanori September 2013
3 ( 1) Growth Rate (%) inflation real GDP growth : GDP :IMF (2012) GDP : Web URL:
4 GDP
5 WTO : : :
6 1: I(2) : I(2) : : 110 4
7 ( ).. 30 ( ).. 31 ( ) ( ).. 32 ( ).. 32 CPI IRFs( ) CPI IRFs( ) ( ) CPI IRFs( )
8 GDP ( ) FDI ( ) FDI FDI FDI ACF PACF CPI IRFs CPI IRFs
9 CPI IRFs( ). 35 FDI (10 ) FDI (10 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) FDI ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
10 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) FDI ( ) (σ 3 = 0) (σ 3 = 0) (σ 3 = 0) (σ 3 = 0)
11 (,2007) 1980 (,2003) (World Trade Organization: (,2007,2011) (,2007) (,2003) 3 ( ) (2003) 4 (1990)
12 WTO) WTO WTO WTO : 1994 (,2011) (2011) 10
13 30% 60% (,2011) : ( ) 1995 (,2011,2007) 11
14 : (,2007) (2005) (2005) % % % (,2005) 6 12
15 ( 2) (2011) % ( 3) % %( 5) % ( 6) 13
16 Interest Rate (%) Deposit rate Lending Rate : ( ) IMF (2012) % % ( 4 6) % ( 5) % 1994 ( 6) 1.3 WTO WTO 14
17 (,2007) US(17.74%) Oceanic(1.42%) North(1.16%) Latin(2.03%) Europe(15.51%) Asia(60.7%) Africa(1.45%) 3: 1994 WTO (Foreign Direct Investment: FDI) WTO ( 7) WTO ( 8 9) WTO ( 10) WTO (2003) 15
18 US(17.9%) Oceanic(1.31%) North(1.04%) Latin(2.52%) Europe(15.85%) Asia(59.62%) Africa(1.76%) 4: 1997 Oceanic(1.62%) US(21.48%) North(1.33%) Latin(2.91%) Asia(52.32%) Europe(18.19%) Africa(2.14%) 5:
19 US(17.64%) Oceanic(1.81%) North(1.53%) Latin(5.02%) Asia(46.42%) Europe(24%) Africa(3.58%) 6: 2008 Foreign Direct Investment (Billion Dollar) : FDI ( ) 17
20 US(8.22%) Other(5.44%) Europe(6.02%) ASEAN(7%) S.Korea(2.79%) HK(54.97%) Japan(8.56%) 8: 1995 FDI HK ASEAN Other(13.85%) US(10.77%) HK(38.92%) Europe(11.7%) ASEAN(6.97%) S.Korea(3.66%) Japan(7.16%) 9: 2000 FDI 18
21 Other(25.69%) HK(30.75%) US(5.07%) Europe(9.35%) ASEAN(4.87%) S.Korea(8.57%) Japan(10.82%) 10: 2005 FDI (2011) WTO WTO WTO % 6 ( 11) % ( 13) 19
22 %( 14) % % % % 2000 WTO (2011)
23 % (,2003) (,2007) WTO (2002) 21
24 WTO
25 Oceanic(2.52%) US(12.02%) North(1.6%) Latin(1.94%) Europe(21.64%) Asia(59.48%) Africa(0.77%) 11: 1994 North(1.41%) Latin(2.65%) Oceanic(2.58%) US(11.45%) Europe(18.09%) Asia(62.09%) Africa(1.73%) 12:
26 North(1.23%) Latin(2.82%) Oceanic(2.32%) US(9.23%) Europe(18.1%) Africa(1.84%) Asia(64.47%) 13: 2002 Oceanic(3.55%) US(7.18%) North(1.12%) Latin(6.33%) Europe(14.84%) Africa(4.94%) Asia(62.04%) 14:
27 2 2.1 (World Trade Organization: WTO) 1985 Zhang (2009) Andrews and Ploberger (1994) Andrews and Ploberger (1994) Andrews and Ploberger (1994) Andrews and Ploberger (1994) (Impulse Resonse Functions: IRFs) 25
28 Bai and Perron (1998) 1994 Andrews and Ploberger (1994) Zhang (2009) 1994 WTO Bai and Perron (1998) Bai and Perron (1998) 2002 IRFs 2002 IRFs 26
29 2.2 IMF (2012) (Auto-Correlation Function: ACF) (Partial Auto-Correlation Function: PACF) ACF 0 PACF 0 (Auto-Regressive: AR) (Augmented Dickey Fuller: ADF) Elliott et al. (1996) 5% ( 1 8 ) (Akaike Information Criterion: AIC) (Bayesian Information Criterion: BIC) Bai and Perron (1998) 8 ERS Elliott et al. (1996) Level Difference 27
30 Correlation ACF PACF : ACF PACF 1: ADF ERS Level (AIC) Difference (AIC) Level (BIC) Difference (BIC) Bai and Perron (1998) Yao (1988) Liu et al. (1997) Bai and Perron (1998) Yao (1988) Liu et al. (1997) pure structural change Bai and Perron (1998) R strucchange Bai and Perron (1998) 28
31 AR BIC IRFs IRFs AR 1 AR AR IRFs Gospodinov (2004) IRFs Lütkepohl (1990) Pesavento and Rossi (2006) Gospodinov (2004) 29
32 2.3 Bai and Perron (1998) BIC 2 AR Zhang (2009) Zhang (2009) 3 2 2: ( ) 1st 1988(8) 1990(6) 1990(11) 2nd 1993(11) 1994(10) 1995(7) Bai and 9 ( ) 30
33 3: ( ) m= m= m= m= m= m= m= m= Perron (1998) : ( ) m=1 1995(5) m=2 1990(6) 1994(10) m=3 1989(6) 1992(5) 1994(11) m=4 1989(6) 1992(6) 1996(12) 2002(3) m=5 1989(6) 1992(5) 1994(10) 1997(2) 2002(3) m=6 1989(6) 1992(5) 1994(10) 1997(2) 1999(6) 2002(3) m=7 1989(6) 1992(5) 1994(10) 1997(2) 1999(6) 2002(3) 2006(8) Bai and Perron (1998) BIC 2 AR 1 5 WTO 1 2 5% ( 6) 31
34 5: ( ) 1st 2000(5) 2002(3) 2004(11) 6: ( ) m= m= m= m= m= m= m= m= IRFs IRFs IRFs IRFs 7 8 IRFs IRFs ( 9)
35 : CPI IRFs IRFs : CPI IRFs IRFs
36 7: CPI IRFs( ) IRFs : CPI IRFs( ) IRFs IRFs IRFs 34
37 9: ( ) m=1 2002(3) m=2 1996(12) 2002(3) m=3 1996(12) 1999(6) 2002(3) m=4 1996(12) 2002(3) 2004(9) 2007(1) m=5 1996(12) 1999(6) 2002(3) 2004(9) 2007(1) m=6 1996(12) 1999(6) 2002(3) 2003(10) 2005(2) 2006(10) m=7 1996(12) 1999(6) 2001(8) 2002(12) 2004(9) 2006(4) 2007(8) IRFs : CPI IRFs( ) IRFs IRFs 35
38 10: CPI IRFs( ) IRFs (Foreign Direct Investment: FDI) ( 19) (,2003,2011) IRFs Zhang (2009) Zhang (2009) Bai and Perron (1998)
39 Bai and Perron (1998) Bai and Perron (1998) IRFs FDI FDI Zhang (2009)
40 Foreign Direct Investment (Billion Dollar) : FDI (10 ) : Web URL: 1: (Augmented Dickey Fuller: ADF) ADF (,2008) Elliott et al. (1996) ADF Elliott et al. (1996) ADF-GLS 38
41 y t = µz t + u t u t [ = au ] t 1 + ε t [ c0 1 µ = z c t = 1 t ] y t z t 1 t ε t a µ u t y t z t y d y 1 t = 1 t = y t ay t 1 t 2, z 1 t = 1 zd t = z t az t 1 t 2 y d t z d t y t = µ z t + u t y t = µ z t + au t 1 + ε t y t = µ z t + a(y t 1 µ z t 1 ) + ε t y t ay t 1 = µ z t aµ z t 1 + ε t y d t = µ z d t + ε t y d t z d t ˆµ x t = y d t ˆµ z t ADF ADF a ADF-GLS a T GLS c 39
42 T GLS t 1 T GLS d c 2 (B 2 1 (1) 1), T GLS d t 2 (V 2 (1,θ) 1) B2 (s)ds 0 V2 (s,θ)ds V 2 (1,θ) = B(r) r(λb(1) + 3(1 λ) 1 0 sb(s)ds) 1 θ λ = (1 θ + θ 3 )/3 B(r) r θ a ADF- GLS a = 7 a = 13.5 Elliott et al. (1996) 40
43 2: Bai and Perron (1998) Bai and Perron (1998) (Auto-Regressive: AR) AR AR (Bayesian Information Criterion: BIC) l l + 1 l = 0 41
44 l π χ 2 π t 0 T πt F T F T F T (l + 1 l) = RS S US S ˆσ 2 RS S US S l BIC 1 l + 1 l + 1 S T (ˆt i ) ˆt i [ ] ˆt 1 ˆt l 42
45 US S = min τ (S T ( ˆT 1,,τ, ˆT l )) l + 1 τ τ τ < ˆt 1 US S = min τ (S T (τ, ˆT 1,, ˆT l )) τ > ˆT l US S = min τ (S T ( ˆT 1,, ˆT l,τ)) US S l + 1 G q (x) l+1 G q (x) l+1 = (B q(π) πb q (1)) (B q (π) πb q (1)) π(1 π) Bai and Perron (1998) B q (π) π q x G q (x) l π π χ 2 G q (x) l+1 Bai and Perron (1998) 43
46 3: (Impulse Response Functions: IRFs) Gospodinov (2004) (Auto-Regressive: AR) Gospodinov (2004) AR IRFs IRFs AR Gospodinov (2004) IRFs AR IRFs α IRFs 1 α IRFs IRFs AR α IRFs IRFs IRFs AR 44
47 IRFs AR y t = p φ i y t i + ε t i=1 (1 Φ(L))y t = ε t Φ(L) = φ 1 L + φ 2 L φ p L p y t = (1 Θ(L))ε t y t = ε t + θ i ε t i i=1 (1 Φ(L)) 1 = (1 Θ(L)) 10 (1 Φ(L)) 1 = (1 Θ(L)) (1 φ 1 L φ 2 L 2 φ p L p )(1 + θ 1 L + θ 2 L 2 + ) = 1 L θ 1 = φ 1 θ 2 = φ 1 θ 1 + φ 2.. θ s = φ 1 θ s 1 + φ 2 θ s φ p θ s p s IRFs AR IRFs IRFs AR θ s AR φ 2 φ p φ 1 φ 1 = x [ ] [ θ s = θ s φ2 φ p = φ 2 φ p ] θ s θ s = xθ s 1 + φ 2 θ s φ p θ s p = 0 AR IRFs θ 1 = φ 1 (= x) 10 L Lx t = x t 1 45
48 φ 1 AR c AR c (Augmented Dickey-Fuller: ADF) y d t = αy d t 1 + Ψ(L) yd t + e t α = 1 + c T y d Ψ(L) T c 0 c = 0 c AR c 46
49 (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate: NEER) (Foreign Direct Investment: FDI) (,2003,2011) 2000 (2005) (Vector Auto-Regressive: VAR)
50 (,2007) I(2) 2 (Error Correction Model: ECM) ECM NEER ECM Burdekin and Siklos (2008) Mehrotra (2008) Gerlach and Kong (2005) 48
51 (Sriram,2001) ECM 49
52 I(1) ECM p VAR p 1 x t = αβ x t 1 + ψ i x t i + ε t i=1 x t = x t x t 1 ε t α β ψ i I(1) ECM I(2) I(2) I(2) ECM I(2) ECM Johansen (1997) 11 Johansen Mosconi and Paruolo (2011) p 2 2 x t = α(β x t 1 + υ x t 1 ) + (ςβ + ξγ ) x t 1 + Υ 2 x t i + ε t υ γ ς ξ Υ i β γ x t 12 x t i=1 11 Johansen I(2) Georgoutsos and Kouretas (2004) Juselius (2004) Fiess and MacDonald (2001) Rahbek et al. (1999) 12 Mosconi and Paruolo (2011) proportional-control term 50
53 (Juselius,2006) β x t υ x t β x t 1 + υ x t 1 13 k r r + s β υ k r γ k s I(2) Mosconi and Paruolo (2011) υ 3.3 (M) (P) GDP(Y) (RL) NEER(RF) M P RL RF IMF (2012) Y CEIC M Y 13 Mosconi and Paruolo (2011) multi-cointegration 14 CEIC GDP URL ( 51
54 Burdekin and Siklos (2008) NEER NEER NEER Mehrotra (2008) Zhang (2009) 52
55 Guerineau and Guillamont (2005) Koiv (2009) Elliott et al. (1996) ( ERS ) (Augmented Dickey Fuller: ADF) 11 ADF ERS ADF ADF ERS P 12 ADF ERS 1% ERS 53
56 I(2) Nielsen and Rahbek (2007) r = 4, s = 0 β r υ r + s (just identified) r = 4, s = 0 β υ D1 D2 D3 price homogeneity 13 β 11 Georgoutsos and Kouretas (2004) Johansen and Lütkepohl (2005) 15 ECM 15 Rahbek et al. (1999) 54
57 11: ADF P ERS P M P Y RL RF : ADF P ERS P M P Y RL RF : β 1 υ 1 M β 11 0 P β 11 υ 21 Y β 31 0 RL β 41 0 RF β 51 0 D1 0 υ 61 D2 0 υ 71 D3 0 υ 81 4 β 1 υ 1 14 e β x t + υ x t 55
58 14: β 1 υ 1 M P Y RL RF D D D e t = 14.83(M t P t 1.47Y t RL t 1.67RF t P t D1 t D2 t D3 t ) M t = P t Y t 0.08RL t RF t P t D1 t D2 t D3 t e t χ 2 (H N1 ) (H N2 ) (H N3 ) (H N4 ) (H N5 ) (H N6 ) 15 5% 56
59 ( ) ( 16) 16 2 P 2 Y NEER ( 21) NEER 57
60 15: χ 2 P H N1 : (β 31 = β 11 ) H N2 : (β 41 = 0) H N3 : (β 51 = 0) H N4 : (υ 21 = 0) H N5 : (υ 61 = υ 71 ) H N6 : (υ 71 = υ 81 ) : 2 M -3.00E-03 [ 1.15E-03 ] 2 P 2.88E-04 [ 1.84E-05 ] 2 Y 2.00E-04 [ 4.66E-04 ] 2 RL -1.27E-01 [ 2.81E-02 ] 2 RF 1.51E-02 [ 3.33E-03 ] ( 22)
61 Multi Cointegration : Exchange Rate(Jan 1991=100) US CH : IMF (2012) 59
62 Lending Rate (%) : IMF (2012) Import Price Index : IMF (2012) 60
63 3.4 I(2) FDI 24 FDI 2000 ( 16) ( 14) NEER NEER 61
64 Foreign Direct Investment (Billion Dollar) : FDI (10 ) : Web URL: NEER NEER
65 63
66 1: I(2) x t I(2) Nielsen and Rahbek (2007) I(2) β x t + υ x t I(0) β x t I(0) γ x t I(0) I(2) p 2 2 x t = Πx t 1 + Γ x t 1 + Ψ 2 x t i + ε t i=0 Johansen (1997) 2 x t = α(ρ τ x t 1 + ψ x t 1 ) + Ωα (α Ωα ) 1 κ τ x t 1 + ε t ε t N p (0,Ω), t = 1,,T ψ = (α Ω 1 α) 1 α Ω 1 Γ κ = [ α Γ β ξ ] α τ 16 τ τ 16 x t x t = x(x t x) 1 64
67 α α α r α α τ τ ᾱ α ᾱ 2 x t = ωα 2 x t + ρ τ x t 1 + ψ x t 1 + ε 1,t α 2 x t = κ τ x t 1 + ε 2,t ω = ᾱ Ωα (α Ωα ) 1 α α τ ω ψ κ α α ω ψ κ ᾱ τ ᾱ R( 2 x t α x t, x t ) = ρ τ R(x t 1 α 2 x t, x t 1 ) + ε t 17 α 2 x t = κ τ x t 1 + ε 2,t τ Aτ B +Cτ D = E A = ρω 1 1 ρ B = S S (x t 1 α 2 x t, x t 1 ) C = κω 1 2 κ D = T 1 x t 1 x t 1 S P(U t,w t V t ) T 1 18 ρω 1 ᾱ S P( 2 x t, x t 1 α 2 x t, x t 1 ) + κω 1 2 α T 1 2 x t x t 1 T t=1 R(U t V t )R(W t V t ) S S (U t V t ) S P(U t,u t V t ) 17 R(u v) u v 18 Ω i ε i 65
68 Aτ B +Cτ D = E vec(abc) = (C A)vec(B) τ vec(τ) = ((B A) + (D C)) 1 vec(e) τ τ r = 0, s = 0 r = 0, s = 1 CATS in RATS Ox 66
69 2: I(2) I(2) p p 2 2 x t = α(β x t 1 + υ x t 1 ) + (ςβ + ξγ ) x t 1 + Υ 2 x t i + ε t α β υ γ ς ξ Υ i ε t η = [ α ξ ς ] ζ = [ β υ γ ] x t x t Υ i 2 x t 2 x t i 2 y t x t 1 x t 1 2 x t i y t 1 y t 1 i=1 2 y t = α(β ỹ t 1 + υ ỹ t 1 ) + (ςβ + ξγ ) ỹ t 1 + ε t ζ η ζ η η ˆΩ ˆΩ = ε tε t T p T ζ vec(abc) = (C A)vec(B) 67
70 vec( 2 y t ) = vec( [ α ς ξ ] β y t 1 + υ y t 1 β y t 1 γ + ε t) y t 1 vec(αβ y t 1 ) + vec(ςβ y t 1 ) = (y t 1 α + y t 1 ς)vec(β ) vec(αυ y t 1 ) = ( y t 1 α)vec(υ ) vec(ξγ y t 1 ) = ( y t 1 ξ)vec(γ ) ζ 2 y t = Z t vec(ζ) + ε t Z t = [ (y t 1 α + y t 1 ξ) ( y t 1 α) ( y t 1 ς) ] ζ η ˆΩ vec(ζ) = ( T Z t ˆΩ 1 Z t ) 1 t=1 T Z t ˆΩ 1 2 y t t=1 ζ η H k r H k (k r) 1 2 H 1 H 1 =
71 19 vec(ζ) = ( T H Z t ˆΩ 1 Z t H) 1 t=1 T HZ t ˆΩ 1 2 y t I(2) t=
72 4 4 3 I(2) 3 3 McCallum and Nelson (2000) ( MN ) MN MN MN MN 70
73 Burdekin and Siklos (2008) Sun et al. (2012) (2009) IMF (2012) Web 71
74 4.1 MN MN 2000 : { c 1 θ } t max U = β 1 θ + m1 µ 1 µ l1+λ t 1 + λ t=0 s.t. m t + c t = 1 ((1 + i t )b t 1 + m t 1 ) + w t n t 1 + π t c m n π i b w c t = α 1 E t (c t+1 ) + α 2 (i t E t (π t+1 )) α 1 α 2 72
75 : ( P ) max Π t = t ( j) y t ( j) q t im t w t n t ( j) P t s.t. y t ( j) = z t (n t ( j)) (1 δ) im δ t ( j) y t ( j) = yt D( j) Π y( j) im P P ( j) y D ( j) θ p y t = 1 0 y θ p 1 θ p t ( j)d j θ p θ p 1 y( j) ( ) θp Pt ( j) y t ( j) = y t P t π t = σ 1 E t (π t+1 ) + σ 2 (y t ȳ t ) ȳ y ȳ ȳ ȳ t = a t γδ 1 δ q t 73
76 a γ : im t = y t γq t q im im ex t = y f t + γq t ex y f y f t = ρ y f y f t 1 + ε y f,t 1 (Auto-Regressive: AR) 0 < ρ y f < : MN π tar 74
77 i t = π t + µ 1 (π t π tar t ) + µ 2 (y t ȳ t ) 21 (2009) 0 m tar m tar m t m tar t = θ 1 ȳ t + θ 2 π tar m t = (1 φ)m tar t + φm t 1 φ 21 75
78 m D m D = ζ 1 y t ζ 2 s t ζ 3 i t ζ 4 π t y s i π m ex t = m t m D t I(2) π t = E t σ 1 π t+1 + σ 2 (y t ȳ t ) + σ 3 m ex t 4.3 : 76
79 c t = α 1 E t (c t+1 ) + α 2 (i t E t (π t+1 )) y t = β 1 c t + β 2 ex t im t = y t γq t ex t = y f t + γ f q t ȳ t = a t γδ 1 δ q t π t = σe(π t+1 ) + σ 2 (y t ȳ t ) + σ 3 m ex t 1 i t i f t = E(s t+1 ) s t m t = (1 φ)m tar t + φm t 1 m tar t = θ 1 ȳ t + θ 2 π tar m D t = ζ 1 y t ζ 2 s t ζ 3 i t ζ 4 π t σ 3 m tar θ 1 θ 2 φ ζ 1 ζ 4 McCallum and Nelson (2000) θ 1 = 0.1 θ 2 = 0.9 φ σ 3 I(2) : θ 1 θ 2 φ φ = 0.1 φ = s t ζ 3 77
80 c t = α 1 E t (c t+1 ) + α 2 (i t E t (π t+1 )) e c t e c t = ρ c e e t 1 + εc t, 0 < ρ c < 1 e c AR a t ȳ t = a t γδ 1 δ q t a t = ρ a a t 1 + ε a t ε a t < ρ c < 1 78
81 y f t ex t = y f t + γ f q t y f t = ρ y f y f t 1 εy f t ε y f t s t = ρ s s t 1 + ε s t ε s t ρ c ρ a McCallum and Nelson (2000) ρ c = 0.30 ρ a = : α σ θ α σ θ β σ φ β ρ c ζ γ ρ a ζ γ f ρ s ζ δ ρ y f ζ AR
82 4.4 : (Foreign Direct Investment: FDI) :
83 Consumption Growth : ( ) real GDP Growth : ( ) 81
84 Nominal Exhange Rate : ( ) Real Exchange Rate : ( ) 82
85 Import Growth : ( ) Export Growth : ( ) 83
86 CPI Inflation Rate : ( ) Foerign Direct Investment : FDI ( ) 84
87 33: 34 ( 34) ( 43)
88 ( 38) ( 37) 2001 ( 41 42) : ( 38 43) ( 42 41) 2004 :
89 ( 38) ( 41 42) ( 43) ( 36) ( 37) ρ a
90 ( 34) : ( 45 48) σ 3 = 0 88
91 35: 36: 89
92 Consumption Growth : ( ) real GDP Growth : ( ) 90
93 Nominal Exhange Rate : ( ) Real Exchange Rate : ( ) 91
94 Import Growth : ( ) Export Growth : ( ) 92
95 CPI Inflation Rate : ( ) Foerign Direct Investment : FDI ( ) 93
96 45: (σ 3 = 0) 46: (σ 3 = 0) 94
97 47: (σ 3 = 0) 48: (σ 3 = 0) 95
98
99 97
100 : (New Keynesian Phillips Curve: NKPC) NKPC NKPC (2011) (2007) ( P ) Π t = t ( j) y t ( j) q t im t w t n t ( j) P t y t ( j) = a t (n t ( j)) (1 α) im α t ( j) [( P max E t β k η k ] t ( j) )y t+k ( j) q t+k im t+k ( j) w t+k n t+k P t+k k=0 ( ) ψ Pt ( j) y t ( j) = y t P t y t ( j) = a t n 1 α t im α t mc n t ( j) = y t( j) a t im t ( j) = y t( j) a t 98 [ qt (1 α) αw [ t qt (1 α) αw t ] α ] α 1
101 mc tc t = q t im t ( j) + w t n t ( j) [ ] α 1 [ y t ( j) qt (1 α) y t ( j) qt (1 α) = q t + w t a t αw t a t αw [ ] t α w t qt (1 α) = y t ( j) (1 α)a t αw [ t ] α w t qt (1 α) mc t = (1 α)a t αw t tc [( P E t β k η k ) ] t ( j) y t+k ( j) mc t+k y t+k ( j) P t+k k=0 P t ( j) = ψ ψ 1 (βη) k y t+k ( j)mc t+k k=0 k=0 (βη) k y t+k( j) P t+k P t P t 1 η ] α P t = (1 η)p t + ηp t1 P t = ηp t+1 + (1 η)(1 βη)e t (βη) k [P t+k + mc t+k ] k=0 1 βηl 1 NKPC 28 π t = βe t + (1 η)(1 ηβ) mc t η 28 L Lx t = x t 1 99
102 (1 η)(1 ηβ) σ 1 = β σ 2 = McCallum and Nelson (2000) NKPC η m ex P t = ηp t+1 + (1 η)(1 βη)e t k=0 (βη) k [P t+k + mc t+k + µm ex t+k 1 ] m ex NKPC π t = βe t + (1 η)(1 ηβ) mc t + η (1 η)(1 ηβ) µm ex t 1 η 100
103 (World Trade Organization: WTO) WTO WTO
104
105
106 104
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Title 軽種馬生産農家の経営対応と問題点について Author(s) 吉川, 正明 Citation 農業経営研究, 26: 97-117 Issue Date 2000-02 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/36559 Right Type bulletin Additional Information File Information 26_97-118.pdf
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Title 最 高 裁 判 所 昭 和 61 年 9 月 4 日 判 決 Author(s) 曽 野, 裕 夫 Citation 北 大 法 学 論 集, 39(3): 273-284 Issue Date 1988-10-20 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/16641 Right Type bulletin Additional Information
Title 外 国 人 の 周 辺 化 と 日 本 語 教 育 : 栃 木 県 真 岡 市 の 事 例 から Author(s) 矢 板, 晋 Citation 研 究 論 集 = Research Journal of Graduate 12: 433( 左 )-455( 左 ) Issue Date 2012-12-26 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/51982
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Title 自 然 学 習 の 環 境 教 育 における 意 義 について : L.H.ベ イリの 自 然 学 習 の 検 討 Author(s) 和 田, 貴 弘 Citation 研 究 論 集 = Research Journal of Graduate Letters, 14: 267( 左 )-283( 左 ) Issue Date 2014-12-20 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/57710
Title 馬 ( 軽 種 馬 )の 生 産 Author(s) 塙, 友 之 Citation 北 海 道 大 学 農 学 部 技 術 部 研 究 技 術 報 告, 1: 38-44 Issue Date 1994-03 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/35259 Right Type bulletin Additional Information File
Title 人 生 過 程 観 と 宗 教 Author(s) 宇 都 宮, 輝 夫 Citation 哲 学, 38: 1-20 Issue Date 2002-07-21 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/48027 Right Type bulletin (article) Additional Information File Information
Title ケアの社会化と代替をめぐる論点 Author(s) 保田, 真希 Citation 教育福祉研究, 19: 37-48 Issue Date 2013-09-30 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/54009 Right Type bulletin (article) Additional Information File Information
Title 子どもの経験の不平等 Author(s) 大澤, 真平 Citation 教育福祉研究 = Journal of Education and S 13 Issue Date 2008-03-28 Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/39607 Right Type bulletin (article) Additional Information Instructions
Title フランス選挙制度史 ( 一 ) Author(s) 岡田, 信弘 Citation 北大法学論集, 29(2): 61-100 Issue Date 1978-10-31 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/16255 Right Type bulletin Additional Information File Information 29(2)_p61-100.pdf
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Title 菌株保存と分類の話題 Author(s) 阿部, 歩 Citation 北海道大学大学院農学研究科技術部研究 技術報告, 12: 11-15 Issue Date 2005-03 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/35477 Right Type bulletin Additional Information File Information 12_p11-15.pdf
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Title 藻 汐 草 の 一 冊 本 について Author(s) 佐 藤, 知 己 Citation 北 海 道 大 学 文 学 研 究 科 紀 要 = The Annual Report on Science, 121: 左 157- 左 170 Issue Date 2007-02-20 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/18912 Right Type
Title 新 < 起承転結 > 考 I Author(s) 高橋, 吉文 Citation メディア コミュニケーション研究 = Media and Communication Studies, 55: 39-118 Issue Date 2009-03-25 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/38486 Right Type bulletin (article)
Title 養育費支払義務をめぐる諸問題 Author(s) 石川, 恒夫 Citation 北大法学論集 = THE HOKKAIDO LAW REVIEW, 1 100-109 Issue Date 1961-09 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/27797 Right Type bulletin Additional Information File
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Title 加 州 における 日 本 人 Author(s) 中 島, 九 郎 Citation 農 經 會 論 叢, 15: 143-155 Issue Date 1959-03 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/10778 Right Type bulletin Additional Information File Information 15_p143-155.pdf
Title 民 事 判 例 研 究 Author(s) 林, 竧 Citation 北 大 法 学 論 集, 55(1): 209-225 Issue Date 2004-05-06 DOI Doc URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/15281 Right Type bulletin Additional Information File Information 55(1)_p209-225.pdf