19世紀の物価動向―コンドラチェフによる物価長波の検討を通じて―*

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1 19 GDP

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8 0.27% 1.19 GDP 1.84 V G P GDP 13 GDP 1 (%) P m V G Y mv/y GDPY V P=mV/YG mv/y 1 GDP M3 13 PY=VG 8

9 GDP 10% well-balanced Schwartz(2000) 19 pp

10 the Rand A Goldstein (1988 Ch.12)Berry (1991 Ch.6) 10

11 Goldstein (1988) cost of wars lateral pressure 2 20 Goldstein (1988) (severity) pp pp Oparin 5-7 Garvy(1943), p

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21 /GDP % % GDP 2% 1884 GDP 82.2% % % 5% GNP Rostow(1978, pp )

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27 5 Berry, Brian, J.L. (1991), Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior, Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press Clark, C. (1944), The Economics in 1960, Macmillan. / 1984 Albert Fevearyear, revised by E. Victor Morgan (1962), The Pond Sterling A History of English Money, Oxford University Press. Garvy, G. (1943), Kondratieff s Theory of Long Cycles, The Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. XXV, November; reprinted in Louçã, F. and Reijnders, Jan eds.(1999). Goldstein, Joshua, S. (1988), Long Cycles Prosperity and War in the Modern Age--, New Haven and London: Yale University Press Hooker, R. H. (1911), The Course of Prices at Home and Abroad, , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. LXXV, December Kondratieff, N. D. (1928/1984), The Long Wave Cycle in The Long Wave Cycle, New F. York: Richardson & Snyder, 1984, translated by Guy Daniels; reprinted in Louçã, 27

28 and Reijnders, Jan eds.(1999). Kondratieff, N. D. (1928), Die Preisdynamik der industriellen und landwirtschaftlichen Waren (Zum Problem der relativen Dynamik und Konjunktur), Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, Bd. 60, SS Louçã, F. and Reijnders, Jan eds.(1999), The Foundations of Long Wave Theory Models and Methodology, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited. Maddison, A. (1995a), Monitoring the World Economy , Development Center of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Maddison, A. (1995b), Explaining the Economic Performance of Nations Essays in Time and Space, England and USA: Edward Elgar Publishing Company Mitchell, B. R. (1980), European Historical Statistics, New York: Facts on File Mitchell, B. R. (1988), British Historical Statistics, Cambridge University Press. Mitchell, B. R. (1998), International Historical StatisticsThe Americas Fourth Edition, Macmillan Reference Ltd.: London. Mitchell, B. R. (1998), International Historical StatisticsEurope Fourth Edition, London: Macmillan Reference Ltd. R G. (1979) Myers, Margaret G. (1970), A Financial History of the United States, Columbia University Press: U.S.A W.W Rostow, W.W. (1978), The World Economy History and Prospect, The Macmillan Press LTD: London Basingstoke. Schwartz, M. Herman (2000), States Versus Markets The Emergence of a Global Economy Second Edition, London: Macmillan Press LTD TBS 28

29 1963 van Duijn, J. J. (1983), Long Waves in Production, in The Long Wave in Economic Life, Chapter IX, London: George Allen & Unwin, , references Price Changes in 19 th Century Through an Investigation of Kondratieff s Long Wave in Prices Ken-ichi Watanabe 29

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