GDPギャップと潜在成長率

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1 2003

2 output gap 80 1

3

4 1 2 output gap potential output 1 2 (2001) 3

5 potential rate of growth 2000 Meyer (2000) European Central Bank: (1999b) (2000) 4 4

6 () 5 5 5

7 6 () () 7 Total Factor Productivity: ln= (-a) lna lnln() a ln 6 7 6

8 8 ln = (-a) ln a ln ln () () ()() 8 (2001) Constant Elasticity of Substitution 7

9 () () (2001) (2001) 8

10 (a)80 90 (b)90 (1)

11 (2) () 12 () () () Solow 13 10

12 (1) 15 11

13 Phillips(1958) Samuelson and Solow(1960) Stock and Watson(1999) 12

14 (2000)

15 (2000) 14

16 Nishizaki and Watanabe(2000) Akerlof et al.(1996) 22 (2001) 23 (2002)(2002)

17

18 Congressional Budget Office: CBO CBO (1995) 17

19 Hodrick Prescott () 2 ( ) 2 () 18

20 16 28 Hodrick Prescott W = 100 W = 1600 W = 14400Hodrick and Prescott (1997)(1998) 19

21 Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment 30 (2002) 31 (2001) 20

22 Staiger et al.(1997) Gordon(1997) (2002) 21

23

24

25

26 21 25

27 26

28 [] International Monetary Fund: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development: De Masi(1997)Bayoumi(2000) (2002) 27

29 Giorno et al. (1995) OECD (2002) (2001)

30 29

31 (2002) 2002 (2001) GDP 20 2 (2001) (2000) 19 1 (2001) 13 (2002) No J-21 (2002) (1998) 17 6 (2001) GDP No (2002) NAIRU No (2000) 19 2 Akerlof, G., W. Dickens and G. Perry (1996), The macroeconomics of low 30

32 inflation, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp Bayoumi, T. (2000), Where Are We Going? The Output Gap and Potential Growth, Post-Bubble Blues: How Japan Responded to Asset Price Collapse, T. Bayoumi and C. Collyns, ed., International Monetary Fund, Washington D. C., USA. Bayoumi, T., C. Towe, J. Morsink, I. Oishi and J. Levy (1998), Japan-Selected Issues, IMF Staff Courntry Report, No. 98/113. Congressional Budget Office (1995), CBO s Method for Estimating Potential Output, CBO Memorandum, October De Masi, P. R. (1997), IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/177. European Central Bank (1999a), The Stability-Oriented Monetary Policy Strategy of the Eurosystem, European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, January 1999, pp (1999b), The Role of Short-Term Economic Indicators in the Analysis of Price Developments in the Euro Area, European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, April 1999, pp (2000), Potential Output Growth and Output Gaps: Concept, Uses and Estimates, European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, October 2000, pp Giorno, C., P. Richardson, D. Roseveare and P. van den Noord (1995), Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances, OECD Economic Studies, No. 24, 1995/I. Gordon, R. J. (1997), The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implication for Economic Policy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp Hodrick, R. J., and E. C. Prescott (1997), Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp International Monetary Fund (2002), World Economic Outlook, September 31

33 2002. Meyer, L. H. (2000), The Economic Outlook and the Challenges Facing Monetary Policy, Remarks by Governor Laurence H. Meyer before the Toronto Association for Business and Economics, Toronto, Canada April 12, Nishizaki, K. and T. Watanabe (2000), Output-Inflation Trade-Off at Near- Zero Inflation Rates, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 14, pp Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2002), OECD Economic Outlook, Vol. 72, November Phillips, A. W. (1958), The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, , Economica, Vol. 25, pp Samuelson, P. A., and R. M. Solow (1960), Analytical Aspects of Anti- Inflation Policy, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp Staiger, D., J. H. Stock and M. W. Watson (1997), The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp Stock, J. H., and M. W. Watson (1999), Forecasting Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp

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物価変動の決定要因について ― 需給ギャップと物価変動の関係の国際比較を中心に―

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