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1 EUCOP EC)COP GHG 30BAU1530 EU GDP /03/ EU
2 EU % 2020 (a) (b) (a) (d) (e) (d) 5200/t-CO %24%0% /t-CO %6%18 % /t-CO Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen', Extensive background information and analysis Part 1, table 13
3 (LTVS; Low carbon Technology Voucher System)) CO2 LTVS) Voucher) 2 CO2 LTVCO2 LTV3 (Voucher) 3
4 COP15EU 2/6 2050GHG EU3/23/ GHG COP15 EU BAU
5 GHG Emission Level GHG Emission Level Baseline Domestic Action Actual emissions Acquisition of credits through carbon market Developed country target Baseline Actual emissions Own Action, Autonomous Own Action, Supported Action generating credits for transfer through carbon market Time Time *1 developing country GHG emissions are increasing rapidly and, if not addressed, will outweigh developed country efforts to reduce their GHG emissions. 5 *2 Support for the incremental costs of such investment must come from the full range of sources and innovative financing mechanisms, including public funds and international carbon crediting mechanisms. It is estimated that these crediting mechanisms can provide one third or more of the additional investments in developing countries 8 *3 The POLES model was used to analyze the type of actions/technologies necessary in the energy and transport sector to ensure that GHG emissions are limited to be in line with the objectives proposed by the EU The results are referred to as the appropriate global action scenario. part161 5
6 4 + = *1 Developed countries should be able to achieve their reduction targets in part through domestic action and in part by using credits resulting from emission reductions in developing countries 4 *2 GDP per capita; Rich countries have a higher ability to invest in reductions than poor ones and have a higher ability to invest in GHG reductions in other countries through offsetting mechanisms. part36 6
7 4 + =
8 COP15EU communication EU(13p.) 3EU EU EUThe Commission) EU3/2 EU3/19-20 EUPART1(101p.),PART2(127p.) 8
9 EU350ppm CO2 CO ppm 350ppm Overshoot 2005CO2 379ppm 350ppm ppm CO2350ppm 1985 EU p.3) In the light of some new research findings, an increasing number of scientists are calling for the level of green house gases (GHG) in the atmosphere to be stabilised at a significantly lower level than previously recommended, i.e. as low as 350 ppmv CO2 equivalent. 9
10 Box 1 EU 2 EU GHG30 EU BAU GHG EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 {COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.25 10
11 EUAGA;2009 GHG % GHG CAP 2005 CDM or GHG GHG BAU1530% CDM or CDM or CAP &TradeEU OECE ETS 11
12 Gt-CO2-eq10CO2-eqEUBaseline (BAU)GHG CO2WEO2008 CO2 CH4,N2O CO LULUCFLand Use and Land Use Change and Forestry) GHG CO2 Agriculture CH4N2O Energy & Industry other GHGPHF HFC) EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 {COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.46 EU CO27130 WEO CO27430EU CO255/
13 {COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.96EU2050GHG EUAGA2009 Gt-CO2-eq10CO2-eq CO2 CH4,N2O CO2 2050GHG 05 COP15EUAppropriate Global ActionAGA) EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 {COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.95 CO2GHG)
14 {COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.96EUIPCCAR5RCP Gt-CO2-eq10CO2-eq IPCC CO2 CO2 2050CO2 CH4,N2O EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1 EUAGA2009CO2LULUCF)IPCCIMAGE2.9/2.6 CO2 EUAGA2009AR4IICO2450ppmCO2500ppm 14
15 CO2EUAGA2009)450ppm CO2EU450ppm EUAGA)6SO CO Gt-CO2-eq(10-CO2-eq) CO2GHG Gt-CO2-eq EU(AGA;2009) Baseline EU(AGA;2009) Reduction 450ppm IPCC AR4 WG3, p GHG 49Gt-CO2-eq CO2GHG Gt- CO2-eq 450ppmCO2 EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1{COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.46, p.95 15
16 EUAGA2009)450ppm EUAGA, 2009)6450ppmCO EU IPCC TAR, 2001) EUAGA2009) Reduction 450ppm450ppm GHGCO EUAGA2009) Reduction EU Commission Staff Working Document Patr1{COM(2009) 39 final} {SEC(2009) 102},p.46, p.96 (a) (b)1990eu EUMAGICC (Tom Wigley,1995) NICCS
17 EUAGA2009BAU 68/5270/42 65/6563/61 16/16 21/21 19/18 28/24 38/ /60 4.5/4.5 82/81 6.2/ /95 8.2/ /80 9.3/5.4 13/13 14/ / / / / / BAU 120/60=2.0 95/60= BAU: 150/60=2.5 80/60= ppm BAU 14.0/13.0= / BAU 14.2/ / ppm JRC/IPTS - Joint Research Centre s Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, European Commission. The global POLES model was used by JRC/IPTS to analyse the impact on the energy system and industry. It assesses the mitigation potential for GHG emissions in the energy system and industrial emissions including other gases than CO2. 17
18 BAU BAU Gt-CO2-eq(10-CO2-eq) 21-CO2-eq 1990 EU 57-CO2e JRC/IPTS, POLEp.12)
19 CO ppmCO BAU BAU21 EU(AGA;2009) 550ppm 450ppm EU(AGA;2009)BAUWEO2008BAU EU2020BAU120t-CO2e25t-CO2e BAU21
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