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12 Aries, Philippe, 1980, "Two Successive Motivations for Declining Birth Rates in the West," Population and Development Review, 6-4, Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean, 1986, "The Unprecedented Shortage of Births in Europe," K. Davis et al. (ed.), Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrialized Societies, The Population Council, Coale, Ansley J. & Watkins, Press. Council of Europe, 1993, Recent Demographic Council of Europe Press. S. C., 1986, The Decline of Fertility in Europe, Princeton University Developments in Europe and North America-1992, De Vanzo, Julie & Rahman, M. O., 1993, "American Families : Trends and Correlates," Population Index, 50-3, Fall, Ermish, John, 1991, "Women's Activity and Fertility in the United Kingdom," in Commission of

13 the European Community, Study on the Relationship Between Female Activity and Fertility, Vol. 2, Eurostat. Hajnal, John, 1953, "Age at Marriage and Proportion Marrying," Population Studies, 7-2, Shorter, Edward, 1988, "Grand Theories of Family Change : Modernization Theory," an unpublished paper presented at the IUSSP Seminar on Theories of Family Change, Tokyo. United Nations, , Adolescent Vol. 1, Population Studies, No. 19. Reproductive Behavior, Evidence from Developed Countries, United Nations, , World Population : Trends and Policies, Monitoring Report.

14 The Recent Rise in the Proportion Single and the Postponement of Marriage in Japan Makoto Atoh Key words : the rise in the proportion single, the postponement of marriage, decomposition analysis Since the middle of the 1970s the proportion single among those who are in the reproductive ages and the mean age at first marriage have been steadily rising in Japan. These phenomena have occurred without the concurrent increase in cohabitation and out-of-wedlock fertility which Western society has experienced since the middle of the 1960s. While these trends are more or less common to all social and economic segments of Japanese society, they are more conspicuous among women with higher levels of education. According to decomposition analysis, neither growing urban population, growing population concentration in the three largest metropolitan areas, nor rising employee-status or white-collar jobs have contributed to any great extent to such phenomena, while the rise in higher levels of education has somewhat done so. Through the review of surveys on attitudes and behavior related to marriage, it can be asserted that the rapid rise in women's social status has made them economically more independent, weakened the economic necessity of marriage for them and, at the same time, aroused their discontent with a family system based on a fixed division of labor by gender, or the breadwinner-homemaker system. This, in turn, has acted to raise the proportion single and the postponement of marriage. Changes and Variations in Marriage Timing Yumiko Satoh Key words : marriage timing, life-course, cohort analysis This paper examines changes and increasing variations in marriage timing among several contemporary birth-cohorts in Japan. Data came from research applied to samples in two cities (Tokyo and Fukushima), for those born between the years of 1914 and 1958, and conducted by the project team for Social Change and Human Development (Waseda University) in 1988 and The results are : (1) In the birth-cohort of both sexes, a delay and increasing variations in marriage timing were observed. (2) For both sexes with higher academic backgrounds in the and the birth-cohorts, the age of first marriage was relatively high, but most in these groups had experienced their first marriage by a given point in time. (3) For females with higher academic backgrounds born after World War II, in the case of the birth-cohort, a delay and increasing variations in marriage timing were observed. This seems to indicate increasing alternatives of marital behavior for the members of that group. (4) For a portion of males with lower academic backgrounds in the younger cohorts, a delay of marriage timing was observed. This trend parallels growing competitiveness in the marriage market, which acts to the disadvantage of younger people with limited resources. 133

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