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1 1 THORPEX THORPEX

2 THORPEX High impact weather High impact weather

3 NH500hPa (1) (m) ( (

4 NH500hPa (2) (m) ( (

5 hour Position Error (JMA, UKMO, ECMWF, 3-Models Ensemble) Num.of Samples Position Error (km) Case JMA UKMO ECMWF ENS Year The three-model ensemble is better than individual NWP models after Working Group on Numerical Experiment (WGNE) Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast on Operational Global Model

6 Upgrade history of the JMA global NWP system (1) 19 APR 2002 : Revision to the background error statistics of the assimilation system 06 MAY 2003 : Assimilation of QuikSCAT/SeaWinds data 28 MAY 2003 : Assimilation of NOAA/ATOVS level 1D radiance data Improvement in the cumulus convection scheme 15 DEC 2003 : Assimilation of European wind profiler data 15 APR 2004 : Assimilation of radiosonde temperature data Enhanced quality control on radiosonde humidity data 27 MAY 2004 : Assimilation of Terra/MODIS and Aqua/MODIS wind data in the Arctic 29 JUL 2004 : Introduction of a parameterization scheme for marine stratocumulus Improvement in the cloud water/ice scheme Revision to ice sheet albedo Improvement in the cumulus convection scheme

7 Upgrade history of the JMA global NWP system (2) 16 SEP 2004 : Assimilation of Terra/MODIS and Aqua/MODIS wind data in the Antarctic 02 DEC 2004 : Assimilation of NOAA/ATOVS level1c radiance data Upgrade of the radiative transfer model for radiance assimilation Introduction of a new long-wave radiation scheme Improvement in the short-wave radiation scheme 17 FEB 2005 : Introduction of a 4D-Var assimilation system Revision to the background error statistics of the assimilation system Introduction of a semi-lagrangian advective scheme Introduction of incremental non-linear normal mode initialization and vertical mode initialization 10 MAR 2005 : Assimilation of Aqua/AMSU-A radiance data July 2005 : Improvement in the cloud-radiation scheme

8

9 D-Var (25 ) SSM/I, TMI JAL) AMSR-E MSM (ANA) QuikSCAT (2 ) (6 ) ( R/A ) 10km 10mm/3

10 Plan of the JMA NWP System (1) 120km 60km 40km 20km 10km JFY Horizontal resolution 5km 2km Weekly Ensemble GSM TYM RSM OI MSM Aviation 3D-Var 4D-Var Hydrostatic 4D-Var Hydrostatic 4D-Var T106L40M25 TL159M51 T213L40 TL319L40 24kmL25 20kmL40 Non-hydrostatic 10kmL40 5kmL50 Computer Replacement Thick arrows: forecast models Seasonal Thin arrows : assimilation methods Ensemble TL159L60M51 CGCM TL159L60M51+0.5deg TL319L60M51 BGM SV Typhoon Ensemble TL959L60 with mixed layer TL959L80 4D-Var TL319L60M11 Non-hydrostatic 4D-Var TL479L80M51 TL479L80M25 4D-Var with EKF 2kmL60 Non-hydrostatic 3D-Var Computer Replacement

11 Plan of the JMA NWP System (2)

12 THORPEX JMA/NWP 20km 1 4 D-Var 60km SV 5km 1 8 D-Var EnKF

13 THORPEX THORPEX THORPEX THORPEX TIGGE WMO 2008

JMA Numerical Analysis Systems

JMA Numerical Analysis Systems AMSR-E データの数値天気予報への寄与 Contribution of AMSR-E data to numerical weather prediction in JMA 竹内義明 ( 気象庁 ) Yoshiaki TAKEUCHI (Japan Meteorological Agency) AMSR, AMSR-E/GLI Symposium, 23 January 2006, Toshi

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