29 Short-time prediction of time series data for binary option trade
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1 29 Short-time prediction of time series data for binary option trade
2 RSI(Relative Strength Index) 3 USD/JPY high low i
3 Abstract Short-time prediction of time series data for binary option trade Tomoya Baba One of the investment methods in binary option. Binary options are investment methods that predict whether short-term foreign exchange rates will rise or fall. In recent years, day trade which repeats short-term transactions is becoming mainstream, and people who are investing as hobbies by binary option due to popularization of mobile terminals are rapidly increasing. However, there are still few studies on binary options. Technical analysis is used to distinguish the range price and the trend price from the slope of the moving average line, and to improve the prediction accuracy of the shortterm exchange rate by the binary option. Indicators used for prediction are moving average lines, Bollinger band, RSI(Relative Strength Index), and change the indicator to be used depending on the market price. Also, we change the market follower and resistance dealing to the market rate, and do the experiment. In the experiment, the period of USD/JPY exchange rate 1 minute historical data period from 4:10 on January 2, 2001 to 17:00 on December 29, 2017 was used. We predict the exchange rate after one minute, which is mainstream in the binary option investment method, at high or low, and compare when we do not distinguish between market quotations and when investment method is changed. Results are distinguishable from market price, and the method of resistance in the range market and follower in ii
4 the trend market has become the method of increasing the funds to the greatest extent. key words foreign exchange, binary option, short-time prediction iii
5 (Foreign exchange) RSI(Relative Strength Index) iv
6 v
7 36 vi
8 ( 5 ) vii
9 ( 0.001) ( 0.002) ( 0.001) ( 0.002) ( 0.001) ( 0.002) ( 0.001) ( 0.002) ( 0.005) ( 0.006) viii
10 4.16 ( 0.005) ( 0.006) ( 0.005) ( 0.006) ( 0.005) ( 0.006) ix
11 1 [1] [2] (FX:Foreign exchange) [3] FX FX 2 FX Relative Strength Index(RSI) 1
12 FX RSI 2
13 2 2.1 FX(Foreign exchange) FX FX 2.2 (Foreign exchange) Foreign exchange(fx) FX
14 2.2 (Foreign exchange) FX [4] FX FX FX FX FX 25 4
15 (%) (%)
16 , ECB 400PIPS PIPS( ) 2.1 6
17 [5] 4 7
18
19
20 [7] ( 5 ) 10
![2.6 2.6.2 1 2 3 2 3 [8] 2.2 2.4 2.](/docs-images/104/164140072/images/21-0.jpg "2 (%) 1 68.27 2 95.45 3 99.73 2.")
21 [8] (%)
22 RSI(Relative Strength Index) RSI [9] RSI 2.7 [10] 12
23
24
25 HistData.com USD/JPY
26 RSI 3 3 RSI RSI ( ) RSI ( ) RSI
27 RSI RSI
28
29 high low high low , , , ,800 high low high low ,200-12,400-2,684,000 3,731,400 high low high low ,475, , ,
30 RSI55 60 AND ,293,000 RSI60 65 AND ,800 RSI65 70 AND ,600 RSI55 60 AND ,644,800 RSI60 65 AND ,308,000 RSI65 70 AND ,200 RSI55 60 AND ,161,800 RSI60 65 AND ,254,600 RSI65 70 AND ,439,
31 RSI30 35 AND ,800 RSI35 40 AND ,733,200 RSI40 45 AND ,794,400 RSI30 35 AND ,770,200 RSI35 40 AND ,570,200 RSI40 45 AND ,293,400 RSI30 35 AND ,324,800 RSI35 40 AND ,664,400 RSI40 45 AND ,741, RSI25 AND ,197,600 RSI30 AND ,113,000 RSI35 AND ,958,800 RSI25 AND ,367,800 RSI30 AND ,513,400 RSI35 AND ,564,800 RSI25 AND ,400 RSI30 AND ,409,000 RSI35 AND
32 RSI65 AND ,707,000 RSI70 AND ,197,600 RSI75 AND ,286,600 RSI65 AND ,669,600 RSI70 AND ,043,800 RSI75 AND ,308,000 RSI65 AND ,628,400 RSI70 AND ,649,800 RSI75 AND ,800 22
33 ( 0.001) RSI55 60 AND ,177,200 RSI60 65 AND ,800 RSI65 70 AND ,200 RSI55 60 AND ,345,200 RSI60 65 AND ,200 RSI65 70 AND ,400 RSI55 60 AND ,686,000 RSI60 65 AND ,050,400 RSI65 70 AND , ( 0.002) RSI55 60 AND ,240,800 RSI60 65 AND ,800 RSI65 70 AND ,000 RSI55 60 AND ,211,600 RSI60 65 AND ,593,000 RSI65 70 AND ,000 RSI55 60 AND ,729,800 RSI60 65 AND ,112,200 RSI65 70 AND ,216,400 23
34 ( 0.001) RSI30 35 AND ,400 RSI35 40 AND ,400 RSI40 45 AND ,249,200 RSI30 35 AND ,200 RSI35 40 AND ,068,800 RSI40 45 AND ,034,600 RSI30 35 AND ,115,200 RSI35 40 AND ,788,000 RSI40 45 AND ,428, ( 0.002) RSI30 35 AND ,800 RSI35 40 AND ,800 RSI40 45 AND ,415,600 RSI30 35 AND ,800 RSI35 40 AND ,963,400 RSI40 45 AND ,797,800 RSI30 35 AND ,829,200 RSI35 40 AND ,764,400 RSI40 45 AND ,852,000 24
35 ( 0.001) RSI25 AND ,876,000 RSI30 AND ,978,000 RSI35 AND ,381,800 RSI25 AND ,253,400 RSI30 AND ,131,200 RSI35 AND ,482,400 RSI25 AND ,803,200 RSI30 AND ,975,800 RSI35 AND ,784, ( 0.002) RSI25 AND ,876,000 RSI30 AND ,977,400 RSI35 AND ,397,800 RSI25 AND ,625,800 RSI30 AND ,131,400 RSI35 AND ,253,400 RSI25 AND ,823,200 RSI30 AND ,075,800 RSI35 AND ,684,000 25
36 ( 0.001) RSI65 AND ,281,400 RSI70 AND ,600 RSI75 AND ,800 RSI65 AND ,000 RSI70 AND ,600 RSI75 AND ,200 RSI65 AND ,800 RSI70 AND ,200 RSI75 AND , ( 0.002) RSI65 AND ,731,400 RSI70 AND ,600 RSI75 AND ,200 RSI65 AND ,845,800 RSI70 AND ,200 RSI75 AND ,800 RSI65 AND ,400 RSI70 AND ,800 RSI75 AND ,800 26
37 ( 0.005) RSI55 60 AND ,206,600 RSI60 65 AND ,235,600 RSI65 70 AND ,480,800 RSI55 60 AND ,253,000 RSI60 65 AND ,464,600 RSI65 70 AND ,478,000 RSI55 60 AND ,442,000 RSI60 65 AND ,768,000 RSI65 70 AND ,052, ( 0.006) RSI55 60 AND ,800 RSI60 65 AND ,600 RSI65 70 AND ,600 RSI55 60 AND ,015,600 RSI60 65 AND ,200 RSI65 70 AND ,000 RSI55 60 AND ,717,600 RSI60 65 AND ,600 RSI65 70 AND ,000 27
38 ( 0.005) RSI30 35 AND ,600 RSI35 40 AND ,800 RSI40 45 AND ,400 RSI30 35 AND ,000 RSI35 40 AND ,200 RSI40 45 AND ,600 RSI30 35 AND ,000 RSI35 40 AND ,000 RSI40 45 AND ,268, ( 0.006) RSI30 35 AND ,600 RSI35 40 AND ,600 RSI40 45 AND ,200 RSI30 35 AND ,600 RSI35 40 AND ,400 RSI40 45 AND ,600 RSI30 35 AND ,400 RSI35 40 AND ,800 RSI40 45 AND ,109,600 28
39 ( 0.005) RSI25 AND RSI30 AND RSI35 AND RSI25 AND RSI30 AND RSI35 AND RSI25 AND RSI30 AND RSI35 AND ( 0.006) RSI25 AND RSI30 AND RSI35 AND RSI25 AND RSI30 AND RSI35 AND RSI25 AND RSI30 AND RSI35 AND
40 ( 0.005) RSI65 AND ,133,800 RSI70 AND ,822,000 RSI75 AND ,441,000 RSI65 AND ,401,400 RSI70 AND ,728,000 RSI75 AND ,647,400 RSI65 AND ,735,200 RSI70 AND ,413,400 RSI75 AND ,689, ( 0.006) RSI65 AND ,545,200 RSI70 AND ,381,400 RSI75 AND ,931,600 RSI65 AND ,646,800 RSI70 AND ,823,800 RSI75 AND ,068,400 RSI65 AND ,018,800 RSI70 AND ,825,600 RSI75 AND ,800 30
41 RSI65~70 RSI30~ RSI30~35AND 21 RSI 3 RSI RSI 31
42 RSI 60. RSI 40% 32
43 6 1 USD/JPY RSI 33
44 ITNEWS 34
45 35
46 [1] Meese, R. A. and Rogoff, K. Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample?, Journal of international economics, Vol. 14, No. 1-2, pp [2] Qian, B. and Rasheed, K. Foreign exchange market prediction with multiple classifiers, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp [3],,, USD/JPY,, [4] /2/16. [5], FX,, pp.82, [6], FX,, pp. 55, [7] 3, /2/16. [8], FX,, pp. 141, [9], FX,, pp. 90, [10], FX 230,, pp. 19,
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NEXT FUNDS NASDAQ-100 連動型上場投信 TOPIX Exchange Traded Fund Year Index Value Daily NAV Daily Return Unit NAV -Month Day Return (per Unit) Return Differential Outstanding (i) The TOPIX Index Value and the
NEXT FUNDS NASDAQ-100 連動型上場投信 TOPIX Exchange Traded Fund Year Index Value Daily NAV Daily Return Unit NAV -Month Day Return (per Unit) Return Differential Outstanding (i) The TOPIX Index Value and the
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NEXT FUNDS NASDAQ-100 連動型上場投信 TOPIX Exchange Traded Fund Year Index Value Daily NAV Daily Return Unit NAV -Month Day Return (per Unit) Return Differential Outstanding (i) The TOPIX Index Value and the
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