Background We have constructed a database of strong-motion records and have obtained a new attenuation relation for Japan. (Kanno et al., 2006; BSSA)
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1 A new attenuation relation for Japan applicable up to Mw9 Nobuyuki Morikawa and Hiroyuki Fujiwara National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), Japan
2 Background We have constructed a database of strong-motion records and have obtained a new attenuation relation for Japan. (Kanno et al., 2006; BSSA) The 2011 Tohoku-oki mega-earthquake (Mw=9.0) on is the largest event which many strong-motion records were obtained. (over 2,000 records in Japan) We must consider Mw9-class mega-earthquakes (e.g. Nankai trough earthquake) in our seismic hazard assessment. A new attenuation relation directly applicable up to Mw=9 earthquakes is required for the Next Generation National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan.
3 Background 2 We have suggested a new attenuation relation based on the strong-motion records of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (Morikawa et al., 2012). However, the new attenuation relation have a tendency that overestimates the amplitude at near source region. Therefore we examine to improve it. The 2004 Chuetsu earthquake (Mw=6.5) Model-1 Model-2
4 Strong-motion data Update the strong-motion database of Kanno et al. (2006) by adding recent (after the 2003 Tokachi-oki EQ) records. Up to end of 2011 (including the 2011 Tohoku EQ) NIED (K-NET and KiK-net), JMA, PARI Target strong-motion parameters: JMA seismic intensity (I) Peak ground acceleration (PGA) Peak ground velocity (PGV) 5% damped acceleration response spectra (SA; s) Data used in the regression analysis Earthquake: Mw>=5.5 & number of records>=5 Station: X<=200 km & installed on the ground surface X: closest distance to the source fault
5 Add strong-motion records Morikawa et al. (2012): End of 2009 (1967~) + Main shock of the 2011 Tohoku EQ This study: End of 2011 (1967 ~) records near source region are not added Morikawa et al. (2012) This study
6 Examination of magnitude-term First step of the regression analysis: i can be obtained for each event i log A b X log( X ) i i Crustal (shallow) earthquakes Subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes Subduction-zone intra-plate earthquakes
7 Revision of magnitude term for model-1 Model-1: Quadratic Mw model Morikawa et al. (2012) log A = a 1 (Mw-Mw 1 ) 2 + b 1 X log (X+d 1 10 e 1 Mw ) + c 1 Introduce amplitude saturation at Mw 01 log A = a 1 (Mw in1 -Mw 1 ) 2 + b 1 X log (X+d 1 10 e 1 Mw in1) + c1 Mw in1 = min (Mw, Mw 01 ) Model-2: Linear Mw model (usual model in Japan) Amplitude saturation has been already introduced in Morikawa et al. (2012) log A = a 2 Mw in2 + b 2 X log (X+d 2 10 e 2 Mw in2) + c2 Mw in2 = min (Mw, Mw 02 )
8 Re-categorization of earthquakes Morikawa et al. (2012) 2 types 1 Crustal (shallow) earthquakes (including earthquakes on active faults) 2 Subduction-zone earthquakes (including plate-boundary and intra-plate earthquakes) This study 3 types 1 Crustal (shallow) earthquakes (including earthquakes on active faults) 2 Subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes 3 Subduction-zone intra-plate earthquakes
9 Change weight in the regression analysis Morikawa et al. (2012) [after Kanno et al. (2006)] 6. 0 X 25km km X 50km km X 75km km X This study 8. 0 X 10km km X 20km km X 40km km X Although the number of strong-motion records at near source have been increased, the ratio with the records at far sites have been smaller. We set much larger weight for records at near source sites.
10 Regression procedure In the regression analysis, we apply below assumptions because the number of earthquakes larger than Mw8 is quite few. 1. We assume that Mw 0, Mw 1 and e take a constant value independent from type of earthquake and strong-motion parameters. At first, we fix e 1 =e 2 =0.5 referring past studies 2. We also assume a and d are independent of type of earthquake. 3. Mw 0 and Mw 1 determined after a trial-and-error approach by changing 0.1 and 1, respectively. Model-1: Mw 01 =8.2 Mw 1 =16.0 Model-2: Mw 02 =8.1
11 Result (a: Magnitude term) Model-1 (Quad. Mw) Model-2 (Linear Mw) Absolute value of a is larger when the period is longer
12 Result (b: Distance term, c: Constant term) Crustal Subduction Plate-boundary Subduction Intra-plate Model-1 (Quad. Mw) Model-2 (Linear Mw) c for intra-plate EQs is larger than other type EQs (The tendency is remarkable at short period range) The ground motion from intra-plate EQs becomes larger
13 Result (d: Distance saturation, s: Standard deviation) Model-1 (Quad. Mw) Model-2 (Linear Mw) s of model-1 is slightly smaller than that of model-2
14 Comparison of result 1 Crustal earthquakes (Mw = 6.5) Morikawa et al. (2012) This study Thick lines: Model-1 Dashed lines: Model-2
15 Comparison of result 2 Subduction-zone earthquake (Mw = 9.0) Morikawa et al. (2012) This study (pb event) Thick lines: Model-1 Dashed lines: Model-2
16 Additional correction terms We have suggest additional correction terms as follows Amplification by deep sediment layers: pd log( Dl 0) qd Dl Dl 0 Gdeep pd log( Dl ) qd Dl Dl 0 D l : Depth of the layer with Vs=l (m/s) at the site [in m] Amplification by shallow soft soils: ps log( Vs30) qs Vs30 Vs300 Gshallow ps log( Vs300) qs Vs30 Vs300 Vs30: Average S-wave velocity up to 30m depth [in m/s] Anomalous seismic intensity distribution: AI Xvf ( H 30) X vf : Distance from volcanic front to the site [in km] H: Focal depth of the earthquake [in km]
17 Conclusions We suggest a new attenuation relation applicable up to Mw9 by using the strong-motion records during the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. The quadratic magnitude model is slightly better than linear magnitude model. The weight for near source records enlarged in this study. As the result, the value d becomes large and predicted amplitude at near source region becomes smaller than the last study. Large amplitude is observed during the subductionzone intra-plate earthquakes. Therefore, it is effective to divide inter-plate and intra-plate earthquake beforehand in regression analysis.
18 Further problems Examination of the uncertainty for applying to seismic hazard evaluation. Since strong-motion records for large earthquakes (Mw>7.5) at short distances (X<30km) are not included in this study. Therefore it is not constrained such region. The validation of predicted amplitude for large (Mw>7.5) earthquake at short distance (X<30km) is required by using the foreign records. The relation of duration of strong-motion is also required for mega-earthquake. The nonlinear site response should be considered in the future.
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20 Acknowledgements We use strong-motion records by NIED (K-NET, KiK-net), JMA, PARI, 土 技 術 政 策 総 合 研 究 所, Central Research Institute for Electric Power Industry, Committee for Earthquake Resaeach Kansai Area, JR Group, NTT Tokyo Electric Power Company, Kansai Electric Power Company, Osaka Gus, 滋 賀 県 神 戸 市 大 林 組 鴻 池 組 前 田 組 松 村 組 京 都 大 学 滋 賀 県 立 大 学 阪 神 高 速 道 路 公 団 ( 当 時 ) 本 州 四 国 連 絡 橋 公 団 ( 当 時 ) の 各 機 関 によりご 提 供 いただいた 強 震 動 記 録 を 使 用 しました
21 補 正 項 1 深 部 地 盤 による 増 幅 使 用 データ 基 本 式 の 導 出 に 用 いた 強 震 動 記 録 のうち 深 さ 30km 以 浅 の 地 震 による 記 録 ( 異 常 震 域 の 影 響 を 除 くため) 最 大 加 速 度 の 観 測 値 が 100 cm/s/s 以 下 の 記 録 ( 地 盤 の 非 線 形 応 答 による 影 響 を 除 くため) 観 測 値 (obs)と 基 本 式 による 予 測 値 (pre)との 残 差 (residual) residual = log [obs] log [pre] ( = log [obs/pre] ) ( ただし 震 度 の 場 合 は residual = [obs pre]/2 ) をもとに 検 討 する 注 ) 本 検 討 では pre は 頭 打 ちモデル によるものを 用 いた
22 補 正 項 1 深 部 地 盤 による 増 幅 藤 原 他 (2009)による 全 国 深 部 地 盤 モデル( 地 震 基 盤 ~ 工 学 的 基 盤 ) における6つの 層 の 上 面 深 さと residual との 関 係 の 例 補 正 項 (G deep )として 以 下 のモデルを 仮 定 G deep ( residual ) p d q log( D l d / D l 0 ) q d D D l l D D l 0 l0 D l はS 波 速 度 l [m/s] 層 上 面 までの 深 さ( 単 位 は m) 係 数 p d, q d, D l0 を 最 小 二 乗 法 により 決 定 (D l0 について 500m 以 下 では 10m 刻 み 500m 以 上 では 100m 刻 みで 変 えながら 実 施 )
23 補 正 項 1 深 部 地 盤 による 増 幅 震 P P 度 G G SA (0.05~10 秒 ) A V 1 PGAおよびSAの 周 期 0.5 秒 以 下 では 効 果 なし( 補 正 不 要 ) 2 それ 以 外 では 周 期 等 によらず D 1400 を 用 いるのが 良 い 補 正 の 適 用 前 後 での 標 準 偏 差 の 比 較 ( が 補 正 適 用 前 )
24 補 正 項 2 浅 部 地 盤 による 増 幅 使 用 データ 基 本 式 の 導 出 に 用 いた 強 震 動 記 録 のうち 深 さ 30km 以 浅 の 地 震 による 記 録 最 大 加 速 度 の 観 測 値 が 100 cm/s/s 以 下 の 記 録 深 さ 20m 以 深 の S 波 速 度 構 造 が 得 られている 観 測 点 の 記 録 ( K-NET, KiK-net, 港 湾 地 域 強 震 観 測 網 の 観 測 点 ) Kanno et al. (2006) による Vs20 Vs30 の 関 係 式 を 利 用 観 測 値 (obs)と 基 本 式 による 予 測 値 (pre)および 深 部 地 盤 による 増 幅 の 補 正 (G deep )との 残 差 (residual) residual = log [obs] (log [pre] + G deep ) ( ただし 震 度 の 場 合 は residual = obs (pre + G deep ) ) をもとに 検 討 する
25 補 正 項 2 浅 部 地 盤 による 増 幅 深 さ 30m までの 平 均 S 波 速 度 (Vs30)と residual との 関 係 の 例 補 正 項 (G shallow )として 以 下 のモデルを 仮 定 G shallow ( residual ) ps logvs30 qs ps logvs300 q s Vs30 Vs30 Vs30 Vs 係 数 p s, q s, Vs30 0 を 最 小 二 乗 法 により 決 定 (Vs30 0 について 1000 m/s 以 下 で 100 m/s 刻 みで 変 えながら 回 帰 を 実 施 )
26 補 正 項 2 浅 部 地 盤 による 増 幅 震 P P 度 G G SA (0.05~10 秒 ) A V 1 基 準 式 の 標 準 地 盤 は Vs m/s 2 SA の 周 期 0.2 秒 以 下 と 2 秒 以 上 では 効 果 なし( 補 正 不 要 ) 補 正 項 がゼロと なるVs30の 値 補 正 の 適 用 前 後 での 標 準 偏 差 の 比 較 ( が 補 正 適 用 前 )
27 補 正 項 3 異 常 震 域 使 用 データ 基 本 式 の 導 出 に 用 いた 強 震 動 記 録 のうち 深 さ 30km 以 深 の 地 震 による 記 録 最 大 加 速 度 の 観 測 値 が 100 cm/s/s 以 下 の 記 録 観 測 値 (obs)と 基 本 式 による 予 測 値 (pre)および 深 部 地 盤 浅 部 地 盤 による 増 幅 の 補 正 (G deep と G shallow )との 残 差 (residual) residual = log [obs] (log [pre] + G deep + G shallow ) ( 震 度 の 場 合 は residual = obs (pre + G deep + G shallow ) ) をもとに 検 討 する ( K-NET, KiK-net, 港 湾 地 域 強 震 観 測 網 の 観 測 点 )
28 ここでは 森 川 他 (2006)による 火 山 フロントから 観 測 点 までの 距 離 (Xvf)を 用 いた 補 正 項 (AI) residual ) Xvf H: 震 源 の 深 さ [km] 補 正 項 3 異 常 震 域 AI( ( H 30) を 仮 定 して 係 数 を 東 北 日 本 ( 太 平 洋 プレートの 地 震 ) 西 南 日 本 (フィリピン 海 プレートの 地 震 )それぞれについて 最 小 二 乗 法 に より 求 める
29 ( 10-4 ) 震 P P 度 G G SA (0.05~10 秒 ) A V 補 正 項 3 異 常 震 域 補 正 の 適 用 前 後 での 標 準 偏 差 の 比 較 ( 黒 が 補 正 適 用 前 ) 1 西 南 日 本 の 方 が 異 常 震 域 が 顕 著?( 現 時 点 で 原 因 は 不 明 ) 2 SA の 周 期 1.5 秒 以 上 では 効 果 なし( 補 正 不 要 ) 参 照 森 川 他 (2006)の 結 果 東 北 日 本 (+)の 方 が 顕 著 ( 係 数 が 大 )
30 ( 深 部 地 盤 補 正 の) 地 域 性 関 東 (Area-6, 7): 1100 m/s 層 上 面 中 国 四 国 (Area-11):2100 m/s 層 上 面 地 域 性 は 有 るようだ
31 ( 深 部 地 盤 補 正 の) 適 用 例
32 既 往 の 距 離 減 衰 式 とM9 地 震 の 記 録 との 比 較 設 定 した 断 層 面 ( 点 震 源 の 集 合 ) 観 測 記 録 : Hz バンドパス 地 表 司 翠 川 (1999):プレート 間 地 震 PGVはAVS30=300m/s 上 に 変 換 片 岡 他 (2006): 海 溝 性 地 震 (Mw, X, D)をパラメータ 全 観 測 点 平 均 Kanno et al. (2006): 浅 い( 深 さ30km 以 浅 の) 地 震 地 表 佐 藤 (2010): 太 平 洋 プレートのプレート 間 地 震 地 表 各 式 は Mw=9.0 まで 外 挿
33 求 められた 基 本 式 二 乗 項 モデル 頭 打 ちモデル 赤 :Mw=9.0 緑 :Mw=8.0 黒 :Mw=7.0 実 線 :カテゴリーⅠ&Ⅱ 破 線 :カテゴリーⅢ
34 観 測 記 録 との 比 較 の 例 二 乗 項 モデル 頭 打 ちモデル
35 求 められた 回 帰 係 数 M 二 乗 モデル 頭 打 ちモデル
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5 6 7 Seismic observation station Agency Seismic intensity South- North (NS) Maximum acceleration (Gal ) East-West (EW) Vertical (UD) Combining threecomponent Epicentral distance (km) Kawaguchi* JMA 7
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