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1 Short Term Estimation of Inter-city Travel Demand Using Time Series Analysis.

2 Short Term Estimation of Inter-city Travel Demand Using Time Series Analysis. i

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4 English summary Short Term Estimation of Inter-city Travel Demand Using Time Series Analysis Kyotaro Matsumoto This study aims to make a model which can estimate of short interval travel demand using time series analysis in Inter-city. In background of this study, there is a situation of the Sanyo-Shinkansen passengers. Nowadays, the number of the Sanyo-Shinkansen passenger trend to decrease. In case of a big infrastructure like a Sanyo-Shinkansen, it is necessary to think how to increase infrastructure effectiveness to the society. In the investigation of the number of the Sanyo-Shinkansen figures out the characteristic of the Sanyo-Shinkansen trip demand. The characteristic of the Sanyo-Shinkansen is as follows; 1) There are two types of travel demand in the Sanyo-Shinkansen, which are business trip demand and sightseeing trip demand. Business trip demand is stable through a year, but sightseeing trip demand varies during the year. 2) There are three peaks of demand in May, August and from end of the year to begging the year. 3) Trip demand changes in week periodically, and the demand peak is on Friday. Finally, the model was created which estimates short-interval trip can demand of the Sanyo-Shinkansen. It contains characteristic of the Sanyo-Shinkansen trip demand. iii

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34 x(t)=a 1 x(t-1)+a 2 x(t-2)++a px(t-p)+u(t) x(t) t xa 1, a 2, a p u 29

35 (Log likelihood) (AIC) 30

36 Box-Ljung Box-Ljung 31

37 x(t)= u(t)-b 1 u(t-1)-b 2 u(t-2)- -b q u(t-p) x(t) t xb 1, b 2, b q u (Log likelihood) (AIC) 32

38 33 Box-Ljung Box-Ljung

39 x(t)=a 1 x(t-1)+a 2 x(t-2)+ +a p x(t-p)+ u(t)-b 1 u(t-1)-b 2 u(t-2)- -b q u(t-p) x(t) t xa 1, a 2, a p b 1, b 2, b q u 34

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49 Box-Ljung Box-Ljung 44

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