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1 Institute for International Policy Studies Tokyo IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002
2 Institute for International Policy Studies 2002 Institute for International Policy Studies Sumitomo Hanzomon Building 7F, 3-16 Hayabusacho Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan Telephone (03) Facsimile (03)
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7 CSIS 2 1 ABM 1 3 the fabric of history produce large 1 James Schlesinger, A Test by Terrorism, The National Interest, Thanksgiving 2001/No.65-S, p President George W. Bush, President Delivers State of the Union Address, The President s State of the Union Address, January 29,2002, 1
8 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 discontinuities Steven E. Miller, The End of Unilateralism or Unilateralism Redux?, The Washington Quarte rly, Winter 2002, p (67-71 ) (68-71 ) Foresight January Steven E. Miller, op.cit., p.19 2
9 Summary by Nikolas K. Gvosdev of Symposium on America s War on Terrorism, Nixon Center, Washington, D.C., October 4, 2001, 10 Steven E. Miller, op.cit, pp Ibid.,pp
10 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June Condoleezza Rice, "Promoting the National Interest", Foreign Affairs 2000 January/February
11 John Mills, Manager, Harvard Asian Center
12 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June
13 (War on Terrorism) War against Terror ABC News/ Washington Post ( ) John Mackinlay, Global Insuegent, The World Today, November 2001, vol.57/no.11, pp Victor Bulmer-Thomas, Targeting Terrorism: US and Terrorism, The World Today, November 2001, vol.57/no.11, pp Michel Haward, What s in a Name?- How to Fight Terrorism, Foreign Affairs, 2002 January/February, pp ABC News/ Washington Post Poll. Latest: March 7-10,2002, (N=1,008 adults nationwide. MoE 3. Field work by TNS), 7
14 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June Eliot A.Cohen, A Strange War, The National Interest, Thanksgiving 2001/No.65-S, p Ibid.,p Schlesinger, op.cit, p
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16 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 Base Force Bottom-up Review Schlesinger, op.cit, p.16
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18 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June
19 LE FIGARO,February 2, Charles Krauthammer, Redefining The War, Washington Post, February 1, 2002, p.25 13
20 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June Ibid Secretary Colin L. Powell, Statement on President Bush s budget Request for FY 2003,
21 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, Department of Defense, September 30,2001,
22 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June President George W. Bush, President Thanks World Coalition for Anti-Terrorism Efforts,March 11, 2002, 16
23 9.11 Peace Building Richard Perle, Laon Fuerth, Getting Saddam: A Debate,
24 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June D.C Zalmay Khalilzad and Daniel Byman, Afganistan: The Consolidation of a Rogue State, Washington Quarterly Winter
25 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 58 Margaret Thatcher, Advice to a Superpower, The New York Times, February 11,
26 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June evil Jr. 59 CNN/ USA Today/ Gallup Poll, Feb. 8-10, 2002, (N=1,001 adults nationwide. MoE 3, terror.htm 20
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28 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 When How Kenneth M.Pollack, Next Stop Baghdad, Foreign Affairs, 2002 March/April, pp Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force on America s Response to Terrorism, Improving the U.S. Public Diplomacy Campaign In the War Against Terrorism, November 6, 2001http://
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30 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June President Bush, Prime Minister Blair Hold Press Conference, April 6, 2002, Kenneth M.Pollack, op.cit.,p Andrew Koch, Strategy to Oust Saddam, Jane s Defense Weekly, 6 March Kenneth M.Pollack, op.cit.,p
31 Kenneth M.Pollack, op.cit.,p President Bush & President Kim Dae-Jung Meet in Seoul, February 20, 2002, 25
32 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June
33 Institute for National Strategic Studies, A Comprehensive Approach to North Korea, March 1999, 75 Victor D. Cha, Korea s Place in the Axis, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2002, p Ibid.,p.82 27
34 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June
35 Charles Krauthammer, op.cit, p Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001,
36 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June
37
38 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June Network Centric Warfare 84 Nuclear Posture Review Report, 8 January 2002, 85 Secretary Rumsfeld Speaks on 21 st Century Transformation of the U.S. Armed Forces, January 31,2002,
39 IFPA(Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis) 33
40 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Ye a r 2003,
41 Secretary Rumsfeld Speaks on 21 st Century Transformation of the U.S. Armed Forces p.2 91 Ibid.,pp
42 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June Donald H. Rumsfeld, Transforming the Military, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2002, p.24 36
43 Ibid.,p Ibid.,p.27
44 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June America As Nuclear Rougue, THE NEW YORK TIMES, March 12, Andrew F. Krepinevich, The Real Problems With Our Nuclear Posture, THE NEW YORK TIMES, March 14, Nuclear Posturing, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, March 14, R.Jeffrey Smith, Clinton Directive Changes Strategy on Nuclear Arms Centering on Deterrence, Official Drop Terms for Long Atomic War, The Washington Post, December 7,
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46 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June (Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies) Pacific Forum CSIS IFPA 40
47 Rumsfeld, op.cit,p (Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies) 41
48 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June 2002 Strategic Defense Review
49 CSIS
50 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June
51
52 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June
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54 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June
55
56 IIPS Policy Paper 287J June
57 IIPS Policy Paper 273J
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