WGC WGC WGC WGC Ashish Bhatia Natalie Dempster George Mill
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2 WGC WGC WGC WGC Ashish Bhatia ashish.bhatia@gold.org Natalie Dempster natalie.dempster@gold.org George Milling-Stanley george.milling-stanley@gold.org The1-Year gold bull market in perspective 1
3 1
4 % 41% % 67% 1 28 VIX S&P5 2 VIX z- z- 1 z- 3 2 z- 5 z- z- 2 2 z z % % 2 X 3 1 OFHEO 1
5 1: Tonnes 7 US$/oz 1,2 6 1, /22 3/23 3/24 3/25 3/26 3/27 3/28 3/29 Identifiable Investments Gold Price (London PM fix, US$/oz), (RHS) Source: GFMS 2: US$/oz 1,4 Vol % 9 1, /22 2/23 2/24 2/25 2/26 2/27 2/28 2/29 2/ Gold Price (London PM fix, US$/oz), (LHS) VIX Index (RHS) Source: Bloomberg 2_3
6 : z- Gold prices (US/oz) ( ) Z-score /1976 3/1982 3/1988 3/1994 3/2 3/26 3/1976 3/1982 3/1988 3/1994 3/2 3/26 % Nasdaq composite ( ) Z-score % Z-score Rolling Annual Returns (RHS) Z-score Rolling Annual Returns (RHS) Case Shiller 1 city US house price index ( ) Japanese Nikkei equity index ( ) Z-score % Z-score /1976 3/1982 3/1988 3/1994 3/2 3/26 3/1976 3/1982 3/1988 3/1994 3/2 3/26 % Z-score Rolling annual returns (RHS) Z-score Rolling Annual Returns (RHS) Note: Only positive values are plotted for z-scores. The graphs are consistently truncated at a maximum z-score of three to make it easier to see the results of the most recent events as that is the period of interest. Bubble period maximum z-scores are as follows: Gold in Q2 198, 4.9; Case Shiller 1 city index in Q3 25, 2.25; Nasdaq in Q1 2, 2.75; Nikkei in Q2 1986, Source: Bloomberg and World Gold Council calculations 1
7 WTI 5 S&P : / =1 US$/oz 1,4 1,2 1, /1974 1/1979 1/1984 1/1989 1/1994 1/24 1/29 Gold (US$/oz) Source: Bloomberg and World Gold Council calculations Gold (real; US$/oz) Gold / 3 July 21 High Average Low S&P MSCI World ex US Silver Oil Monthly US$ levels since 1974, WTI Crude Oil from 198 Source: Bloomberg, Global Insight and World Gold Council calculations 5: / Gold/Asset 7 Gold/Asset /1974 1/1979 1/1984 1/1989 1/1994 1/1999 1/24 1/29 S&P5 MSCI World ex US Silver (RHS) Oil (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Global Insight and World Gold Council calculations 4_5
8 6: / 5 BarCap 1-3month T-bills.2 BarCap US Tsy Agg.4 BarCap US Credit -.4 BarCap US High Yield -.4 S&P DJ Industrial Average Russell 3 MSCI World ex US Dow Jones Wilshire REITs Brent Crude Oil (US$/bbl) DJ UBS Commodity Index Source: Global Insight, Barclays Capital, World Gold Council : Yields up Gold up Yields down Gold up 7/1976 7/1981 7/1986 7/1991 7/1996 7/21 7/26 Source: Bloomberg and World Gold Council calculations 1
9 GDP 1 1 PBOC NDRC MIIT MOF State Bureau of Taxation CSRC 21 4 ICBC ICBC 4 China Gold Report: Gold in the Year of the Tiger _7
10 % 3 1 5% 2.4% 3.4% % 5 1 FRB BOE CEPS 6 AUM 1% 5 The Importance of Gold in Reserve Asset Management Natalie Dempster The Future of the Eurozone and Gold Yonghyup Oh Daniel Gros Cinzia Alcidi Paul De Grauwe CEPS
11 8: 29 Per capita gold consumption (gm) Taiwan South Korea Italy Japan United States.6 India Russia United Kingdom.4 China.2 Indonesia Thailand Note: Demand includes Jewellery and Investment demand and excludes central bank purchases. GDP per capita (US$ ) Source: GFMS, IMF, World Gold Council estimates 9: Tonnes Tonnes % 1,2 1, +76% % % % +83% % +2% Sri Lanka Mauritius Tajikistan China* Russia India Philippines Venezuela Q2 28 Q2 21 Q2 28 Q2 21 *Reported in April 29, but purchases took place gradually over the preceding five years. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics 8_9
12 1: Advanced Economies Developing Asia Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Western Hemisphere Source: IMF International Financial Statistics 11: Global equities* Global fixed income Alternatives** Gold 46% 48% 5% 1% * Estimated using world equity and bond index data and adjusting for data overlaps. ** Includes hedge funds, private equity, real estate, and commodities (excluding gold). Source: IMF International Financial Statistics 7 : Gold for Good: Gold and nanotechnology in the age of innovation
13 SEMI 5 7 1_11
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