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2 01 I: 02 II: 03 III: 04 IV: 08 V: 12 VI: 1 15 詳 細 情 報

3

4 I: DCFDiscounted Cash Flow

5 II: Fiat currency 1 What drives gold?gold Investors Vol. 6, July _03

6 III: Levin & Wright 2006 Levin & Wright ECM Error Correction Model 4 1. ECM Short-run and Long-run Determinants of the Price of GoldEric J.Levin & Robert E. Wright June, 2006 World Gold Council Levin&Wright World Gold Council, Gold and currencies: preserving purchasing power, Gold Investor, Volume 2, April CointegrationECM

7 2012 Levin & Wright Levin & Wright Levin & Wright 1 1. ECM BBBAAA 04_05

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9 ECM ECM : Bloomberg, 06_07

10 IV: BP 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, , : Thomson Reuters, 9

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12 : / 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, :

13 7 2 7: /10 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, : ,000 1, _11

14 V: 2 8 8: 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, : Thomson Reuters, 9: BP 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Thomson Reuters,

15 2013 All-in Cost : : 12_13

16 VI: 30

17 1976 Q3-2014Q t - p ECM ipad/ iphone 14_15

18 10 Old Bailey, London EC4M 7NG, United KingdomCopyright All rights reserved. i ii

19 ISO14001 環 境 規 格 の 認 証 を 受 けた 印 刷 です J

20 World Gold Council T F W 日 本 語 版 発 行 :2014 年 07 月

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