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1 OECD 1

2 (OECD) OECD 30 OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD 2

3 OECD OECD OECD MLIT OECD 3

4 4

5 Disaster Management Council Technical Investigation Committees MLIT Yves Kovacs Ulf Bjurman Reza Lahidji OECD Reza Lahidji OECD Ulf Bjurman Nikolaï Malyshev OECD Pierre Alain Schieb OECD Barrie Stevens Anita Gibson Lucy Lrawcsyk Jack Radisch Jenny Leger OECD OECD.. OECD 5

6 (OECD)

7 (EPTB) (ICPR)

8 CEMAGREF

9 ( 2000 ) The River Law with Commentary by Article

10 I I.5.1. ICPR (ICPR, 2002) I

11 AIST: ANSI/NFPA: / Bank of Japan: BCP: BS: BZK: CalARP: CAO: CAT: CCS: CDF: CDMC: CEMAGREF: CND Plan: DEFRA: DHI: Diet: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University: DSB: EC: EEA: EPTB: ESPACE: European Spatial Planning Adapting to Climate Events FDMA: FEMA: GBP: UK GDP: GEONET: GPS GNP: 11

12 GSI: HERP: HIC: International Conference on Hydro-informatics ICHARM: ICPR: ICT: IDI: ( ) IPPC: Japanese Red Cross Society: JMA: JPY: MLIT: NCC: NFIP: NFPA: NGO: NIED: NVC: OECD: PES: PRP: PWRI: RIA: RMS: Risk Management Solutions SME: Swedish Rescue Services Agency: UK: UNEP: UNESCO: UN/SDR: UN/WWAP: USA: 12

13 13

14 14

15 OECD

16

17 OECD

18 (JMA) (IPCC) 4. 18

19 2. ( )

20 4 IPCC ( ) 20

21 7. 3. OECD

22 24 22

23

24

25 OECD 25

26 14. 26

27 27

28 km , , 28

29 ( GNP 20 ) mm 5 100mm , , (IPCC) cm 50 ( ) 29

30 (OECD 2008) , , ( 1.4 ) 1.4., , 30

31 ( 1.5 ) 1.5. (m), , Rivers in Japan ,440km 1953 () 6,018km 1947 () 55,400km 1946 ( ) 21,750km 1861 (), , Rivers in Japan , ,

32 ** ,500ha 5, km/h 160km/h 162km/h 229km/h 23, * ** Swiss R., 2001,

33 ( ) 2005 (2005.5) ( OECD )

34 1. : (MLIT) (2005): OECD. 2. : OECD 3., , Rivers in Japan 4. :, 2007, 34

35 35

36 Weets, Guy,, DG INFSO ICT,,

37 ,, 2007, 2001 I.2 (,, 2007, ) ( ) ( ) 37

38 2.3.,, 2007,

39 2.4. (9), , Rivers in Japan CDMC CDMC 10 39

40 OECD 1. ( )

41 , , Rivers in Japan 41

42 109 7 ( )

43 43

44 (.1 ) , , , River Administration in Japan 44

45 ,

46 :,, 2007, 2. :,, 2007,,, 2006, 3. :, 2007, 4. :, 2007, 5. : UN/ISDR, Geneva,

47 47

48 (JMA) ( ) 10 1, (PWRI) (ICHARM)

49 (CMDC) PF PF (IPCC)

50 ( GIS ) (50) Andrew P. Bradbury, Channel Coastal Observatory 2007, 50

51 OECD ()( 3.1 ) , , Rivers in Japan 51

52 m 1m 2m 5m 5m, , Rivers in Japan 1 GNP 52

53 ( 4 ) 2 ( ) 53

54 .4 ( ) ( 3 ) ( )

55 5. CEMAGREF CEMAGREF TOP (TOP= )(TOP=1000) (TOP=1) DHI MIKE Module TAL TOP TAL 55

56 3.3. (TAL) DHI Eau & Environnement S. Mejdi 1. IDI 1, :http://www.eptb loire.fr/publications/newsletter/nl5.htm,accessed in February

57 57

58 4.1. ( ), 2007,, Comprehensive Flood Management in Japan o o o o 58

59 o o : : : : 59

60 4.2., , Rivers in Japan ( 2 ) ( 2 ), , Rivers in Japan ( 4.4 ): 60

61 ( ) 4.4., 2007,, Comprehensive Flood Management in Japan 6.3km 10m mm

62 ( ) ,000km ,800 m 3 /s 3,900 m ,000 m 3 /s 4 62

63 IPCC IPCC , ,, 63

64 ( 4.5 ) , , Rivers in Japan 6. 64

65 () NGO 6 3 ( )

66 10 70 OECD ( ) 5 66

67 ()3 67

68 ( ) (2010 )

69 :, , Rivers in Japan 2. :, 2007, River Administration in Japan 3. : OECD 4. : OECD, ,, 2004, Life and Livelihood boudn to the Earth: A vision for the regeneration of the Trumi River Basin 6. : OECD 69

70 OECD 7. : OECD 8. : OECD 9. : OECD 10. : OECD 11. : Baden Wurttemberg Umweltministerium, , Hochwasservorsorge in Baden Wurttemberg: Anforderungen an Anlagen zum Umgang mit wassergefahrdenden Stoffen,, 70

71 71

72

73 (2004 ) ( ), , OECD ( ) (1,940 )(558 ) 3 73

74 OECD 74

75 ( ) () 75

76 ( )

77 3 1, m ( ) 4 23 ( ) FAX

78 10. OECD () (ICT) OECD

79 m , OECD

80 1. :, 2007, 2. OECD : OECD 5. : OECD 6. :, : acccessed : OECD 80

81 81

82 BCP BCP ( civil forces?) ( civil forces?) 2 82

83 (civil security forces?) Civil security forces NGO

84

85 (.9 ) a. b. i. ii. c. d. e DEFRA, ,

86 (1,030 ) 1991 (5700 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ,800 36, ,600 50, ,900 12, Winterstorm 6,800 9, Daria ,300 12, Winterstorm 5,900 11, Lothar 1987 Winterstorm 4,700 5,600 0, ,500 10,

87 1995 3, , ,400 5, :, OECD 35% 40% 6 OECD 95 ( 40 ) 7 87

88 .10 ( ) OECD :, 2007, 2. :, 2007, 3. :, 2007, 4. : : 2007, : OECD OECD(2003), 7. : ( ) OECD 88

89 . (EPTB) EPTB EPTB Loire SEPIA Conseils, 2007, Apprendre a vivre avec les inondations, Les EPTB, un moteur d innovation. 89

90 . (CCS) * * * * * 1. CCS, weside: 90

91 . ESPACE 2003 : the Bayerisches Landesmat für Umwelt and Wasserwirtschaftsamt Bad Kissingen. I.3.1. : ESPACE(2008). 91

92 (2) 1/100 (1 ) km A1 A3 ( )A122,000 A38,000 : United Kingdom National Press Office (2004) 92

93 . (ICPR) 1950 ICPR cm cm ftp 93

94 I.5.1. ICPR (ICPR, 2002) HQ10 HQ m 2.0m 4.0m 4m : Harm Oterdoom, 2001, 94

95 95. I.6.1. :, /

96 (DCC) DCC (NCC) (NVC) (Ministry of BZK) 96

97 . EU : Geovernment office of Sweden(2007) 97

98 . <www.prim.net> : Camphuis, Nicolas Gerard: 98

99 . : (2000) 99

100 .10 (FEMA) (NFIP) Write Your Own (WYO) NFIP FEMA NFIP NFIP 25 NFIP NFIP WYO (PRP)PRP PRP PRP WYO PRP (100 ) FEMA : (2006) 100

101 .11 A.1. A.1.a. A.1.b. 101

102 A.1.c A.2. A.2.a A.2.b 102

103 A.3. A.3.a A.3.b. 103

104 A.4. A.5. A.5.a A.5.b 104

105 A.5.c. A.6. A.7. A.7.a. 105

106 A.7.b A.8. B

107 B.2. B.2.a. B.2.b. B.3. B.3.a. B.3.b. 107

108 B.4. B.5. B.6. B.7. B.7.a B.7.b 108

109 .12 (ICHARM) 109

110 2007 DHI Eau & Environnement, 7th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, HIC 2006, Nice, FRANCE. FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT BASED ON METHODE INONDABILITE French Ministry of Land Use Planning and Environment. Major Risks Prevention Bureau. April 2000, Pierre A. Vidal Naquet and Francis Calvet, A L EPREUVE D UNE CATASTROPHE. Les inundations de novembre 1999 dans le midi de la France IDI Water Series No.4, February 1999, supervised by River Bureau, Ministry of Construction, JAPAN, compiled and commented by Toshikatsu Omachi (IDI), published by the Infrastructure Development Institute. THE RIVER LAW WITH COMMENTARY BY ARTICLE, Legal Framework for River and Water Management in Japan, Japan. (2004): 2003,. (MLIT) (2005): OECD. (MLIT)(2007)Existing Conditions and Tasks of River Administration in terms of Flood Control. (MLIT) (2007) 7 OECD The Review of Floods in Japan. (MLIT) (2008)Adaptation measures related to water related disasters to reduce the impacts of climate change due to global warming. (2007) 7 OECD The review of process of Floods and Earthquakes in Japan. (2000) (n.a.): River Administration in Japan, OECD (2003): A Methodological Framework for Evaluating Risk Management Policies, background document for the first meeting of the Project Steering Group, 3 November OECD (2006 a): Information security in Norway. OECD Risk Management Studies, OECD, Paris. OECD (2006 b): Risk Management Policies in Japan concerning large scale floods, OECD Study in Risk Management, OECD, Paris. 110

111 OECD. 9th Working Party on Global and Structural Policies SCEERING STUDY: RANKING PORT CITIES WITH HIGH EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREMES. INTERIM ANALYSIS EXPOSURE ESTIMATES UN/WWAP(United Nations/World Water Assessment Programme)., st UN World Water Development Report: Water for People, Water for Life. Paris, New York and Oxford. UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) and Berghahn Books., Pilot Case Studies,; a focus on real world examples. Greater Tokyo Japan. 111

112 112

113 4 (/OECD 2002) ( Safety Regions 2004) 113

114 1. OECD OECD DSB 2. OECD (RIA) RIA RIA 2002 PES 114

115 3. () 115

116

117 OECD (OECD 2005a)

118 ( ) (pp.26,28.) CalARP OECD 118

119 8 OECD ( 1 2 ) 9 (SME) 119

120 10 120

121 %

122 122

123 4 / km , 20km 123

124 , ,000 ( (2007). ) , (Reischauer 1953)

125 , % ( ) GDP 2.5% G

126 (HERP) % (CDMC) 9, , GDP 7.2% % 50 90% % 80 90% , GDP 11% 4 OECD

127 127

128 1961 ()

129 3 1 3 ( 8.1 ) 1,

130 ,000 80,000 km 2 2,000 km ,400 km km 2 OECD 70% GDP 15% % OECD (OECD, 2005) 130

131 / (OECD 2002) ( Safety Regions 2004) 131

132 1. 10 OECD (1) (2)(3) (4) (MLIT) ( ) OECD 132

133 ( 2 ) ( ) () OECD 3 133

134 4 3 OECD DSB % 4.5% 2002 ( ) 134

135 , GDP 8.2% GDP 150% () 5 GDP 38% () : OECD (2006a). 3% 5% (2005). 135

136 (PES) PES PES PES ( ) 2400km 2.4 (GDP 0.5%) km 136

137 ( 3 1 ) % 89% 3% 37% % 53 4 OECD (RIA) RIA RIA PES PES (2003) A

138

139 139

140 GPS JMA 600 JMA GSI, GEONET GPS 1,231 GPS 20km GPS GPS GSI 3 1cm (NIED, ) 3 K NET() 1000 Hi net () 750 F net () 70 (AIST, )( ) 140

141 TYPE ,800 (HERP) () HERP

142 HERP e,html

143 ( 9.1 ) % OECD

144 1990 Wisner Uitto GIS ()

145 % % 8.4% 145

146 ( 9.2 ) 9.2. (2006), 14 ( 3 1 ) 146

147 5. 147

148 148

149 ,000 90,000 25% MEXT (2007) ( 2005)

150 9, , % trend 10 government objective (2005) / % 150 Spence (2004),

151 ( 2001) Whittaker 1998 ( 2005, p.47) m/s M7.3 11, % 90%30% 60 40% 151

152 OECD (OECD 2005a) , km km 2 13,000 OECD (2004). CND 152

153 ( 2005 pp.7,8) ( 10.1 ) 153

154 Alquisito Priolo m 10 ( ) : 154

155 155

156 ,000 m 3 (UNEP, 2005) ,000 m OECD 3 156

157 (Uitto, 1998) Cruz 2007 CalARP 1998 (CalARP, 2004) 157

158 ( (2005), pp.26, 28) CalARP OECD 8 OECD 2,000 80% (RMS, 2005) OECD 158

159 ( 11.1 ) HB 221 HB / (ANSI/NFPA 1600) NFPA /11 BS (BS ) Standards Australia (www.standards.org.au) American National Standards Institute (www.ansi.org) British Standards Institution (http://www.bsi global.com/) BCP ( 2005, p.34.)bcp 159

160 OECD ( 1 2 ) 9 (SME) OECD 160

161 300, ( 28 ) ( 2 1 ) 2 / / 161

162 OECD

163 163

164 OECD ( 84 ) ,

165 ) ( ) ( 2005, p.46, )

166

167 (Petak, William J., 2000, p. 10.) 25 3 (Ibid) / % 50% 5,000 1, () 7.7%

168 , % (, 2006) (CDF)

169 % 169

170 . 170

171 171

172 . 83 A.1. A.1.a. 172

173 A.1.b. A.1.c A

174 A.2.a A.2.b A.3. A.3.a 174

175 A.3.b. A.3.c. 175

176 A.3.d. 10 A.4. A.4.a A.4.b. A.4.c. 176

177 A.4.d. 10 A.5. A.5.b A.6. A.6.a 177

178

179 NGO B. B.1. B.2. B.2.a. 179

180 B.2.b. B.3. B.3.a. B.3.b. B

181 B.5. B.6. B.7. B.7.a B.7.b 181

182 . 182

183 Alexandre MARTEL Agent responsible de la politique intégrée de gestion du risque Division de la Planification Stratégique Sécurité publique Canada Philippe THOMPSON Directeur Division de la Planification Stratégique Sécurité publique Canada Niels JACOBSEN Head of Section Danish Emergency Management Agency Niels MADSEN Senior Advisor Danish Emergency Management Agency Dorte JUUL MUNCH Head of Section Civil Sector Preparedness Division Danish Emergency Management Agency Henrik Grosen NIELSEN Head of Division Emergency Management Division Ministry of the Interior and Health Jean-Claude EUDE Directeur Déveloment et Relations extérieures stablissement Public Loire Luigi D ANGELO Department for Civil Protection Prime minister s office Agostino MIOZZO Minister Plenipotentiary Presidency of the Council of Ministers 183

184 Hilde Bostr m LINDLAND Senior Engineer/Project Manager Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning (DSB) Ministry of Justice and the Police Minga ORKAN Deputy Director Social Services Alf ROSEBERG Project Leader Swedish Rescue Services Agency Jim SANDKVIST Director SSPA John TESH Deputy Director Respresenting Bruce MANN Director, Capabilities Civil Contingencies Secretariat Cabinet Office Tina GABBRIELLI () Acting Director Office of Risk Management and Analysis National Protection and Programs Directorate US Department of Homeland Security 184

185 (2002), Disaster Management in Japan.. (2001), Findings and Recommendations on Hospital Seismic Safety.,. CalARP (2004), Guidance for California Accidental Release Prevention Program Seismic Assessments, (2005), General Principles of Measures for Dealing with Major Earthquakes Centered in Tokyo. (2004), Local Government in Japan. (n.a.): Seismic Activity in Japan Regional perspectives on the characteristics of destructive earthquakes,, (2005), Lessons from the Great Hanshin Earthquake 100. :. 2007,Preliminary Findings and Lessons Learned from the 16 July 2007 Earthquake at Kashiwazaki Kariwa NPP. :IAEA. (2006), On effects of the Hyogo earthquake on household consumption: A note, Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 47:2, pp (2007),, (2005), White Paper on Land, Infrastructure and Transport in Japan. (2004), Performing Together for Public Safety and Security An Introduction.,.. (2005), Improvement of Seismic Safety of Buildings and Houses,,, (2002), Economic Survey of Switzerland. : OECD. (2003), A Methodological Framework for Evaluating Risk Management Policies., OECD, (2005a), OECD Recommendation Concerning Guidelines on Earthquake Safety in Schools. : OECD. 185

186 (2005b), Economic Survey of Japan. : OECD. (2006a), Economic Survey of Japan. : OECD. (2006b), OECD Studies in Risk Management: Japan Earthquakes. : OECD. RAND Corporation (2002), Estimating the Compliance Costs for California SB1953.,. Risk Management Solutions, Inc (2005), 1995 Kobe Earthquake 10 Year Retrospective. Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (2007), How Do People Cope with Natural Disasters? Evidence from the Great Hanshin Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake in 1995, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,.. (1995), Summary of the Earthquake, in NCEER Response, NCEER Bulletin National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research,. Spence, R. (2004): Strengthening School Buildings to Resist Earthquakes: Progress in European Countries, in OECD (2005a).. (2006), Recent Trends in Earthquake Disaster Management in Japan, Quarterly Review of the Science and Technology Foresight Center, n (2005), Report of the 10 Year Reconstruction.,. Uitto, J. I. (1998): The geography of disaster vulnerability in megacities, Applied Geography, Vol. 18, n.1. (2007), Earthquake Top 10 Lists and Maps, Whittaker, A., J. Moehle and M. Higashimo (1998), Evolution of Seismic Building Design Practice in Japan. The Structural Design of Tall Buildings, 7:2, (2005), Great Earthquakes Disaster Prevention Measures for Houses and Buildings,, pp

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