Chapter 1, Section 3. European Economies Recovery in the UK, Mitigation of Downward Pressure from Fiscal Tightening and Provision of Social Safety Net

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1 Chapter 1, Section 3. European Economies Signs of a Pick-Up Real economic growth has been positive for two quarters following six quarters of negative growth, and signs of a pick-up are observed, driven especially by. (Fig. 2) In the meantime, unemployment rates remain high except for and a few other countries, and private consumption is on a downward trend mainly in South Europe, due partly to the decline in real employee compensation. On the other hand, price competitiveness of exports has improved as a result of the depreciation in real effective exchange rates. (Fig ) Balance-sheet adjustments are still necessary, as the non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector is rising owing to factors such as the decline in housing prices. Corporate borrowing demand remains weak and recovery momentum of investments is not very strong. (Fig. 2-2) Fig. 2 Real GDP in Major Countries Fig. 21 Unemployment Rates in Major Countries (2 ( Q3=1) 年 Q3=1) (%) ドイツ ((Growth 対年 rate Q3 伸 from び率 2 %) Q3, %) France フランスポルトガル Portugal Eurozone ユーロ圏 Eurozone ユーロ圏 -1 Spain スペイン Italy イタリア Italy イタリアフランス France ポルトガル Portugal ユドフ 9 ドイツーイラ Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3( 期 ) ロツン ( ( (Month) 月 ) 圏ス ( Fig. 23 Real Effective Exchange Rates (2 ( 年 Q1=1) Q1=1) 11 ドイツ 1 フランス France 1 Portugal ポルトガル Price competitiveness 価格競争力優位 advantage イタリア Italy Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2( 期 ) ( Fig. 2 Non-Performing Loan Ratios (%) Italy イタリア 1 ポルトガル Portugal 1 フランス France Fig. 22 Real Compensation of Employees in Eurozone Countries (Percentage (%ポイント) point) ドイツ増 Increase 加 2 Spain スペインドイツ Decrease 減 France 少フランス Q1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2Q3QQ1Q2( 期 ) 1 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3( 期 ) ( ( Eurozone 2 France イタリア Italy Fig. 2 Loan Demand Italy イタリアスペイン Spain Eurozone ユーロ圏ポルトガル Portugal

(Fig. 2) In the meantime, unemployment rates remain high except for and a few other countries, and private consumption is on a downward trend mainly in South Europe, due partly to the decline in real

2 Chapter 1, Section 3. European Economies Recovery in the UK, Mitigation of Downward Pressure from Fiscal Tightening and Provision of Social Safety Net In the UK, household consumption remains firm as a result of the wealth effect from rising house prices, as well as the progress in balance-sheet adjustments, while a rise in real wage remains a challenge. Fiscal consolidation progresses at a relatively high pace. (Fig. 2-29) In South European countries, the outlook for real economic growth has been improving, as the pace of fiscal consolidation was eased. (Fig. 3-31) Regarding the Banking Union, the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is expected to be established after October 21. A comprehensive assessment for banks, which will take place before the SSM becomes operative, will possibly promote bank recapitalization and restoration of confidence on the banking system in the near future. (February (2 年 222=1) 月 =1) Fig. 2 Housing Prices and Mortgage Rate in the UK House 住宅価 Price 格指 Index 数住宅 Mortgage ローン金 rate 利 (variable) ( 変動 ) (RHS) ( 右目盛 ) Fig. 27 Financial Conditions of UK Households (%) (%) (% (% of disposable 可処分所 income) 得比 ) Total 総負 debt 債 (RHS) ( 右目盛 ) Savings 1 貯蓄率 rate ((Month) 月 ) ( ( Fig. 3 Trends in Estimated Real Economic Growth Fig. 31 Improvements in Fiscal Balance Fig. 29 Fiscal Target of the UK in South European Countries in Major Eurozone Countries (GDP (% of GDP) 比 %) Forecast 見通し (GDP (GDP比 to %) %) (Year-on-year ( 前年比 %) change, %) (Year-on-year ( 構造的財政 change 収支前年 of 差 structural GDP fiscal 比 %ポイント) balance, percentage point of GDP) アイルランド Ireland. Net debt 年純 outstanding 債務残高年イタリア Italy ポルトガル Portugal. Structural 構造的経常的ユドアギスフイポ. ーイイリペラタル surplus 財政収支 on 2 ロツルシインリト current - ( 右目 budget 盛 ) -. 1 圏ラャンスアガンル (Forecasts as of - ( 時点予測 ) ド of) ( (Fiscal 年度 ) Year) May 12 年 212 月 12 Nov 年月 13 Feb 年月 May 13 年 213 月 13 Nov 年月 Fig. 2 Real Wages in the UK ((Year-on-year 前年比 %) change, %) (Year-on-year ( 前年 change, 比 %) %) - Average 平均賃 wage 金 - Real 実質 wage 賃金 -2 2 Consumer 消費者物 price 価 ((RHS, 右逆 inverse 目盛 ) scale) ((Month) 月 ) ( Eurozone Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Portugal 7

wealth effect from rising house prices, as well as the progress in balance-sheet adjustments, while a rise in real wage remains a challenge. Fiscal consolidation progresses at a relatively high pace.

3 Chapter 1, Section. Asian Economies China: The Pace of Economic Expansion is Stabilizing The pace of economic expansion is stabilizing, with fixed asset investment showing a stable rate of growth, supported especially by infrastructure-related investment. Exports are also showing signs of a pick-up. (Fig. 32-3) While growth of total social financing remains high driven by the expansion of trust loans and others, these loans may be diverted to real estate investments, and property prices are on a upward trend again. (Fig. 3-37) ((Year-on-year 前年比前年 change, 同期比 %) %) Fig. 32 Contribution to GDP Growth by Final Demand Components 2 Contribution 資本 of capital 形成 1 formation 寄与 Contribution 最終 Contribution 純輸出 of 消 of 費 final 寄与 net 寄 export consumption 与 -1 Q1-Q3 ( 期 ) ( -2 Fig. 33 Fixed Asset Investment ((Year-on-year 前年比 ( 単 change, 月 ) %) monthly basis, %) Fixed 固定 asset 3 investment 資産投資 Infrastructure-related インフラ investment 関連投資 Real estate 不動 investment 産開発投資 ( (Month) 月 ) ( ( 前年比 / 前期比 %) 7 2 Fig. 3 Trade (Year-on-year change / quarter-on-quarter change, %) Import 輸入輸出 Export 輸出 ( 季節調整試算値前期比 ) Export (Seasonally-adjusted estimate, quarter-on-quarter change) Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3( 期 ) ( ((Year-on-year 前年同期比 %) change, %) 2 Nominal 名目 Fig. 3 Retail Sales of Consumer Goods (For ( 参 reference) 考 ) 実質 Real (Nominal) Food ( 名目 and )うち beverages 飲食 (Monthly) ( 月次 ) ((Nominal) 名目 )うち Retail 商 products 品小売 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q ((Quarter/Month) 期 / 月 ) ( (Note) ( 備考 1. )1. Created 中国 based 国家 upon 統計 data 局より from 作 PRC 成 National Bureau of Statistics. 2. "Food 2. 名 and 目 beverages" 額に占める accounts 飲食 for は1% approximately 程度 1% of the nominal aggregate retail sales. 3.Retail 3. 商 products 品小売 are は consumer 家電 goods 自動車 such 等 as の消 consumer 費財 electronics, automobiles, etc. Fig. 3 Total Amount of Social Financing Fig. 37 Trends of Sales Prices of New Houses (Contribution ( 前年比寄 to 与 year-on-year 度 %) change, %) ( (January 年 12=1) Beijing 月 =1) 北京 Total 社会 social 融資 loans Interest & 統 Statistical 計上誤 errors 差総量 Corporate 社債 bonds 1 金 deposit 利 reserve 17 預金 rate 準 cuts 備率 New 新規 bank 銀行 loans 貸出 (212) の引下げ(212 広州 ( 人 (in 民 RMB) 元建て) 1 1 深セン Shanghai -2 Others Bank 銀 acceptance 行引受手形上海その他 ((Month) 月 ) ( 期 ) ( ( Guangzhou Shenzhen

by infrastructure-related investment. Exports are also showing signs of a pick-up. (Fig.

4 Chapter 1, Section. Asian Economies South Korea & Taiwan: Signs of a Pick-Up in the Economy South Korea & Taiwan: The economy in South Korea is picking up, with strong exports of semiconductors and other items, despite the effect of deteriorating property prices. In Taiwan, exports remain sluggish, reflecting the weak demand for PCs and LCD panels. The economy is showing only a gradual pick-up. (Fig. 3-39) ASEAN: The economy shows only a gradual pace of improvement, owing to the deceleration of the Chinese economy, in addition to specific factors in each country. (Fig. - 1) India: The economy is decelerating since manufacturing is sluggish, mainly due to stagnant sales of automobiles as a result of the monetary tightening and other unfavorable factors, and the service industry, a driving force of the economy, is also slowing down. (Fig. 2-3) (21=1) Electric machinery Automobile Fig. 3 Export Trends in South Korea Total (volume) (Contribution to yearon-year change, %) (Month) Others Automobile Electric machinery Fig. 39 Export Trends in Taiwan (2=1) (2=1) Total Electronic (volume) components, etc. Information and communication technology products (RHS) Optical instruments (Month) (Contribution to yearon-year change, %) Electronic components, etc. Others Optical instruments Information and communication technology products Fig. Real Economic Growth in Indonesia and Thailand (Annualized quarter-onquarter 前期比 change, 年率 %) %) ( quarter 前期比年 change, 率 %) %) (Annualized quarter-on- ( 7 Indonesia インドネシア Thailand タイ( (RHS) 右軸 ) -1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 ( 期 ) ( * Fuel インドネシアは13 subsidy in Indonesia 年 was 月に reduced 燃料補助 in 金 June 削減 213. Support タイは12 measures 年 12 月 on に automobile 自動車購入 purchase 支援策終了 in Thailand ended in December Fig. 1 Exports to China from Malaysia and Singapore (Contribution to year-on-year change, %) (Contribution to year-on-year change, %) Export growth in China Export growth in China Fig. 2 Real Economic Growth in India (by Industry) (Year-on-year ( 前年比 %) change, %) 1 (%) Regional, 地域 social, 社会 1 individual 個人サービス services Real economic 実質経済 growth 成長率 12 Finance, 金融 insurance, 保険 and real 不動 estate 産 Commerce, hotels, transportation, 商業ホテル and communication 運輸通信 Fig. 3 Monetary Policy in India September 2 and 13 年 9 月 2 日 1 月 29 日 October 29, レポレート Repo rate To other countries To China Export growth in Malaysia (Total) To China To other countries Export growth in Singapore (Total) Agriculture, forestry 農林水産業 Manufacturing 製造業 Construction 建設業 and fisheries Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1Q2( 期 ) ( Deposit 預金 reserve 準備率 rate (Month) ( 月 ) ( 9

the effect of deteriorating property prices. In Taiwan, exports remain sluggish, reflecting the weak demand for PCs and LCD panels. The economy is showing only a gradual pick-up. (Fig.

5 Chapter 1, Sections. Overview, Forecasts, and Risks Global Economy & USA Global Economy: The economy will stabilize gradually moving into 21 While the global economy as a whole is recovering only feebly in 213, some solid trends have begun to appear especially in developed countries. Forecast: The economy will stabilize gradually moving into 21. (Real economic growth for 21: slightly over 3%) Risks: (1) effect of policy trends in the USA; (2) directions of economies in China and other emerging countries; and (3) return of sovereign debt crisis in Europe; etc. USA: The economy remains on a modest recovery trend The economy remains on a modest recovery trend as evidenced by the modest increase in consumption and other favorable factors, supported by the improvement in employment and income environments, the rise in housing prices and stock prices, and so on. Forecast: The economy remains on a modest recovery trend (Real economic growth for 21: around the mid-2% level) Downside Risks: (1) deceleration of growth in handling the fiscal problems; (2) decline in housing investments, etc. owing to tapering of asset purchases; (3) return of sovereign debt crisis in Europe; and () prolonged deceleration of emerging economies. Upside Risks: (1) rising asset prices; and (2) mitigation of credit risk. 1

solid trends have begun to appear especially in developed countries. Forecast: The economy will stabilize gradually moving into 21.

6 Chapter 1, Sections. Overviews, Forecasts, and Risks Europe and Asia Europe: The economy will show gradual recovery from 21 and the UK are picking up, while the recessions in other countries, including those of South Europe, are bottoming out. Overall, the economy shows signs of a recovery. Forecast: The economy will show gradual recovery from 21, as exports will increase with economic recovery outside Europe, and South Europe will also start to show some signs of a turn around. (Real economic growth for 21: around 1%) Risks: (1) aggravation of sovereign debt crisis; (2) decline in exports owing to economic slowdown in the U.S., Asia, and other regions; and (3) further deterioration in employment conditions. Asia: Growth rate will decline from the previous levels In China, consumption and investment growth will almost level off, and the growth rate will stabilize. In South Korea and Taiwan, the economy is picking up, despite sluggishness in some areas. The ASEAN economies show only a gradual pace of recovery. The Indian economy is decelerating. Forecast: Somewhat slow growth rate. (Real economic growth for 21: China: mid-7% level; South Korea & Taiwan: mid-3% level; ASEAN: high% level; India: around %) Risks: (1) developments surrounding the financial markets and deterioration of export environments; (2) deceleration of the Chinese economy; and (3) re-acceleration of inflation. 11

Europe, are bottoming out. Overall, the economy shows signs of a recovery.

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