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1 Bradley-Terry 1

2 2

3 3

4 paired comparison 4

5 paired comparison 1860 Landau 5

6 6

7 A B B C A C 7

8 n 0.5n(n-1) n 2 0.5n(n-1) 3 8

9 9

10 A B B C A C 10

11 0.5n(n-1) (n-1) 11

12 Kendall coefficient of consistence ζ (1940) null

13 null 0.5 2^3= ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA 75% 13

14 null 75% 37.5% 11.7% 2.2% 0.2% 5% 14

15 15

16 ,8,11,

17 rank correlation exact estimation of ranks 20% 10%

18 Bradley-Terry model A B A A B A B A A A B paired comparison linear models 18

19 Bradley-Terry model A B A A A B A A B A B 19

20 Bradley-Terry model or 20

21 Bradley-Terry model rank correlation exact estimation of ranks BT 20% 10% BT 21

22 Bradley-Terry model RBradleyTerry2 LearnBayes Psychotree eba prefmod 22

23 Bradley-Terry model 23

24 (NPO)

25 (NPO)

26 RBradleyTerry2 BTm nullbt deviance 5.01 P=0.41 AICnull 26

27 nullbt deviance P= AICBT 27

28 nullbt P= deviance AICBT 28

29

30 Bradley-Terry model object-specific player-specific contest-specific order effect

31 Bradley-Terry model. order effect A,AgrestiCategorical Data Analysis +7.5% 31

32 ± % z=1.63 p>0.05 AIC ± % z=1.53 p>0.05 AIC 32

33 Bradley-Terry 33

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