研究報告

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5 ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile ALCM Air-Launched Cruise Missile ANZUS Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASCM Anti-Ship Cruise Missile ASEAN Association of South-East Asian Nations BM Ballistic Missile CD Geneva Conference on Disarmament CM Cruise Missile CNPK Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone GAP Global Action to Prevent War IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile INF Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces IRBM Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile LAV Light-Armored Vehicle MD Missile Defense MRBM Medium-Range Ballistic Missile MRV Multi-Purpose Vessel MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime NPT Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons OAU Organization of African Unity OPANAL The Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean OPV Offshore Patrol Vessel PAC-3 3Patriot Advanced Capability 3 PCDS Pacific Campaign for Disarmament and Security PIF Pacific Islands Forum PKO Peace Keeping Operation PNE Peaceful Nuclear Explosion PNND Parliamentary Network for Nuclear Disarmament SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty SLBM Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile SLCM Sea-Launched Cruise Missile SLV Space Launch Vehicle SM-3 3Standard Missile 3 SORT Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty SPF South Pacific Forum SRBM Short-Range Ballistic Missile START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty SUGW Surface to Underwater Guided Weapon UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research USGW Underwater to Surface Guided Weapon WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction ZOPFAN The Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality 4

APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASCM Anti-Ship Cruise Missile ASEAN Association of South-East Asian Nations BM Ballistic Missile CD Geneva Conference on

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37 NGO Dhanapara, Jayantha, Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones: Challenges and Opportunities, International Seminar 1-4 September, 2000, Uppsala, Sweden 37

38 The United Nations Disarmament Yearbook, Volume 24, 1999, p Lee, Samsung, A Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone in Northeast Asia: The Political and Security Context, International Seminar Nuclear Weapons-Free Zones: Crucial Steps Towards a Nuclear-Free World September 2000, Uppsala, Sweden, p.2 Nishihara, Masashi, North Korea s Trojan Horse, The Washington Post, Aug. 14, 2003 Endicott, John E. & Gorowitz, Alan G., Track II Cooperative Regional Security Efforts: Lessons from the Limited Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone for Northeast Asia, Pacifica Review, Volume 11, #3, October AlsoCenter for International Strategy, Technology & Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, The Bordeaux Protocol of the Limited Nuclear Weapon Free Zone for Northeast Asia, March, 1997 Mack, Andrew, A Northeast Asia Nuclear-Free Zone: problems and Prospects, Chapter 11 of "Nuclear Policies in Northeast Asia," UNIDIR/95/16, United Nations, 1995 Kaneko, Kumao, Japan Needs No Umbrella, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, March/April 1996 Umebayashi, Hiro, A Northeast Asia NWFZ: A Realistic and Attainable Goal, INESAP Conference, Gothenburg, Sweden, May 30 - June 2, It appears in INESAP Information Bulletin, No. 10, August, Also, Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone: Impact of the South Asian Nuclear Weapons Tests, presented at the Alternative Security Conference, Manila, Philippines, July 22-24, 1998 Umebayashi, Hiromichi, Proposal of a Model Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, Shanghai Workshop: A Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone and Missile Control in Northeast Asia, July 16-18, 2004, Shanghai. Associated Press, Text of Condoleeza Rice s remarks, boston.com/news/nation/washington, January 18, 2005 To be published in the Peace Depot Working A Model Paper Treaty No. on 1E, the Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. 38

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57 ( ) 5 DOD CBRNE 6 Study on Defensive Security Concepts and Policies, Office for Disarmament Affairs. Study Series 26, Defensive Security, Saul Mendrovits and Merav Datan War or Health? A Reader, Chapter 46. Zed Books Ltd., London, http// 57

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79 Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK, Occasional Paper No. 2, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 1999; and Daniel A. Pinkston, Domestic Politics and Stakeholders in the North Korean Missile Development Program, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer 2003, pp The National Intelligence Council (NIC), Foreign Missile Development and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015 (Unclassified Summary of a National Intelligence Estimate), December 2001, p. 9; David Wright, Assessment of NK Missile Threat, February 2003, Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS); 4 United Nations General Assembly, The issue of missiles in all its aspects. Report of the Secretary-General, UN document A/57/229, July 23, 2002, p. 13; 5 Ibid., pp Paul Kerr and Wade Boese, China Seeks to Join Nuclear, Missile Control Groups, Arms Control Today, March 2004, pp. 37, Howard Diamond, N Korea Launched Staged Rocket That Overflies Japanese Territory, Arms Control Today, August/September 1998, pp Arms Control Association, The Missile Technology Control Regime at a Glance,; Richard Speier, Complementary or Competitive? Missile Controls vs. Missile Defense, Arms Control Today,, June 2004, pp Arms Control Association, The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty at a Glance; Center for Strategic and International Studies, Conventional Arms Control on the Korean Peninsular, Working Group Report, August 2002, pp USS Cowpens website, 14 The White House, President Announces Progress in Missile Defense Capabilities, December 17, 2002;, 15 MD Cheong Wookshik, U.S. Missle Defense and South Korea s Dilemmas, a paper presented at the Shanghai Workshop: A Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone and Missile Control in Northeast Asia, July 16-18, 2004, Shanghai. 16 Wade Boese, Japan Seeks Missile Defense Interceptors, Arms Control Today, June 2004, p. 35; Wade Boese, U.S., Japan Extended Missile Defense Cooperation, Arms Control Today, March 2003, p Monterey Institute of International Studies, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, East Asia Nonproliferation Program, Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) in Northeast Asia: An Annotated Chronology, 1990-Present (Updated: March 2003), p. 1, Deborah Kuo, Taiwan to Purchase Six Patriot PAC-3 Missile Batteries: MND, March 3, 2004; 79

80 18 Monterey Institute, Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) in Northeast Asia, op.cit., p Wade Boese, Bush to Deploy Modest Missile Defense in 2004, Arms Control Today, January/February 2003, pp. 18, Missile Defense Agency, Lt Gen Kadish Statement on Missile Defense Program and Fiscal Year 2005 Budget, Wade Boese, Pentagon Gets $416 Billion From Congress, Arms Control Today, September 2004, pp U.S. Navy, Remarks by the Secretary of the Navy Gordon R. England at the National Missile Defense Conference, March 22, 2004; U.S. General Accounting Office, Report Missile Defense Actions are needed to Enhance Testing and Accountability, Highlights, April 2004; Union of Concerned Scientists, Technical Realities: An Analysis of the 2004 Deployment of a U.S. National Missile Defense System, May 2004; 24 Wade Boese, Missile Defense: Deploying a Work in Progress, Arms Control Today, September 2004, pp ; Caitin Baczuk and Rebecca Schuer, Missile Defense and Space Policy: 2004 Presidential Candidate, February 16, 2004; 25 Aaron Karp, Ballistic Missile Proliferation: The Politics and Technics, Oxford, NY: Oxford University Press, 1996, pp Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, Appendix : Unclassified Working Papers, System Planning Corporation: Non-Proliferation Issues - Japan, July 15, 1998; 27 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, International Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation; Mark Smith, On Thin Ice: First Step for the Ballistic Missile Code of Conduct, Arms Control Today,, July/August 2002, pp Howard Diamond, N Korea Launched Staged Rocket That Overflies Japanese Territory, Arms Control Today, August/September 1998, pp Nuclear Threat Initiative, Country Overviews: South Korea, Gary Samore, U.S.-DPRK Missile Negotiations, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer 2002, pp Lawrence Scheinman Lawrence Scheinman, Ballistic Missile Proliferation, January 1995, 33 GCS: The Global Control System for Non-Proliferation of Missile and Missile Technology GCS 34 Nancy W. Gallagher, The Politic of Verification, Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999, p Jürgen Scheffran, Moving Beyond Missile Defence: The Search for Alternatives to the Missile Race, Disarmament Diplomacy, No. 55, March 2001; Bhupendra Jasani, Gwyn Prins, and Martin Rees, Share satellite surveillance, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Vol. 46, No. 2, March 1990, pp START MIRV ICBM Arms Control Today, START 2 and Its Extension Protocol at a Glance; 39 Hiromichi Umebayashi, A Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (NEA-NWFZ), April 2004, Briefing Paper, Peace Depot & Pacific Campaign for Disarmament and Security. 80

81 50~100 km HY-1 ( ) 80 km SY-1 ( ) 80 km HY-2 ( ) 95~100 km YJ-6 (ALCM ) 90~100 km YJ-81K ( ) 50 km AA-12 ( ) 50 km 100~500 km HY-4 ( ) 150 km SS-N-22 ( ) 250 km YJ8-2 (ALCM ) 120 km YJ-61 (ALCM ) 185~200 km AA-10 ( ) 70~170 km M-7 (SRBM) km/190 kg DF-11 11SRBM km/800 kg 500~1,000 km DF-15 15SRBM km/500 kg 1,000~5,500 km Xia/JL-1 SLBM DF-21 21MRBM DF-21A 21AMRBM DF-3A 3AMRBM DF-4 4IRBM 2 1,000 km/600 kg 2 2,500 km/600 kg 2 1,800 km/2,000 kg 2 2,800 km/2,150 kg 2 5,500 km/2,200 kg 5,500 km DF-5A 5AICBM 2 13,000 km/3,200 kg DF-31 31ICBM 8,000 km/700 kg JL-2 2SLBM8,000 km/700 kg km 81

82 ASM-1 ( ) 50 km AGN-84 (ASCM ) 90 km 100 km MIM ( ) 70~160 km ASM-2 ( ) 100 km SSM-1 (ASCM ) 180 km SSM-1B (ASCM ) 150 km 50~100 km CSS-C-2 (ASCM ) 80 km SS-N-2 Styx ( ) 80 km FROG km 100~500 km Scud-B BSRBM 5 B SRBM 300 km 330 km/1,000 kg 500~1,000 km C (SRBM) 500 km/700 kg Range 1,000~5,500 km (MRBM) 1,300 km/750 kg (MRBM) 1,500 km/770 kg (MRBM) 2,000 km/1,000 kg Range >5,500 km (ICBM) 5,000~6,000 km/1,000 kg 50~100 km SA-4A/B ( ) (a) 50 km, 55 km SA-12A/B ( ) (a) 6~75 km, 13~100 km SA-N-6 ( ) (b) 45~90 km SS-N-2C ( ) (b) 80 km SS-N-14 (SUGW) (b) 55 km 100~500 km 82

83 SS-21 (SRBM) (a) 120 km SS-N-22 ( ) (b) 250 km AS-4 ( ) (b) 460~500 km *1 AS-11 ( ) (a) 120 km AS-17 ( ) (a) 50~200 km AS-18 ( ) (a) 115 km AA-10 ( ) (a) 70~130 km 500~1,000 km SS-N-19 (USGW ) (b) 625 km *1 1,000~5,500 km SS-N-21 (SLCM) (b) 3,000 km/150 kg *2 Range >5,500 km SS-N-18 (SLBM) (b) 5,600 km/1,650 kg *2 (a) (b) *1 *2 50~100 km AGN-84 ( ) 90 km AIM-7 ( ) >54 km AGM-88A/B ( ) >48 km AGM-142 ( ) 75 km 100 km NHK-1 (SRBM) 180 km/500 kg NHK-2 (SRBM) 260 km/450 kg (SRBM) 180 km/300 kg ATACM (SRBM) 165 km/560 kg ATACMS 1A (SRBM) 300 km/560 kg ( ) 180 km 50~100 km 2 ( ) 80 km AGN-84 ( ) 90 km 83

84 100~500 km ( ) >135 km ( ) 100 km 2 ( ) 200 km MIM ( ) >100 km (SRBM) 130 km/270 kg (SRBM) 300 km/500 kg 50~100 km RIM-7 ( ) (c) AGM-88A/B ( ) (ab) AIM-7 ( ) (ab) 50 km >48 km >55 km 100~500 km AGN-84 ( ) (c) 2MR ( ) (c) 2ER ( ) (c) MIM ( ) (b) AGM-154 ( ) (ab) AIM-54A/C ( ) (c) 110 km 45~110 km 75~115 km 70~160 km 24~200 km 184 km 1,000~5,500 km BGM-109 (SLCM ) (c) 1,350 km (a) (b) (c)7 SRBMMRBMIRBMICBM International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance , London, 2002; Federation of American Scientists (FAS), Global Security.org, 84

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91 20 M. C. Abad, Jr. Head of ARF Unit ASEAN Secretariat 70A Jalan Sisingamangaraja Jakarta, Indonesia Tel. (6221) ; Fax. (6221) ;

92 1 McKinnon, Rt. Hon. Don, New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Opening Statement, ASEAN Post Ministerial Conference, July 26, Daljit Singh, The Politics of Peace: Preventive Diplomacy in ASEAN, Harvard International Review, Spring Segal, Gerald, Harvard International Review, Giacomo, Carol, U.S. Rethinking Ties to Asia Groups, Reuters, August 15, Notes from Workshop on Asian Institutions, 9 th. Annual CANCAPS (Canadian Consortium on Asia-Pacific Security), December 7-9,

93 TEL FAX URLhttp://

2 2001 5 1 (New Framework) BMD 1980 BMD BMD BMD BMD BMD BMD BMD 1980 BMD 85 BMD 98 12 BMD

2 2001 5 1 (New Framework) BMD 1980 BMD BMD BMD BMD BMD BMD BMD 1980 BMD 85 BMD 98 12 BMD BMD (George W Bush) (strategic fait accompli) 1 (Bill Clinton) 1999 7 NMD NMD 2001 5 1 (NMD) TMD MAD 01 12 ABM (Balance of Terror) ABM 02 6 (John Lewis Gaddis) (The Long Peace) 2 ABM ABM (MD) 1 2 2001