雇用不安時代における女性の高学歴化と結婚タイミング-JGSSデータによる検証-

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1 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No.3 JGSS Women s Higher Education and Marriage Timing in an era of employment uncertainty Yuko NOZAKI Graduate School of Social Sciences Hiroshima University Marriage behavior is heavily influenced by macro-economic factors. For example, there may be low momentum in marriage rates when employment is unstable or there are fewer members of the opposite sex suitable for marriage. However, most traditional studies have focused on individual attributes based on Cost-Benefit Theory. This paper verifies the influence of macro-economic factors and higher education on marriage behavior using the Cox Proportional Hazard Model and following D. S. Loughran (2002) who used Search Theory for marriage behavior. As a result it is found that there is a negative correlation between female ratio in marriage market and marriage timing for the female group. In addition, it is apparent that the unemployment rate for female has a negative influence on the marriage behavior and this influence becomes stronger among newer generation. Key WordsJGSS, macro-economic factor, higher education 131

2 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No

3 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No

4 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No

5 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No

6 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No

7 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No.3 4. F( w H ) F H F( w H ) q U s t c t c w t W ( wt ) 137

8 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No.3 W [ W ( w) W ( w )] df ( w H c s W ( w ) U = βq ) W U s p = q[ 1 F( w )] q F(w) q w p w n 1 p w 0 < = μ p r + p < 1 w w βq w = σ βq w 0 F( w H ) dw σ [ 1 F( w H )] > w 138

9 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No.3 ' '' U ( w) > 0 U ( w) < 0 U (w) w [ U ( w) U ( w )] df( w H c s U ( w ) U = βq ) w Cox p it q t w it p it = q t [ 1 F( w )] it s U w i s m m = W ( U, c, r, μ, σ, q ) i i i β x h0 ( t) h( t x) = h0 ( t)exp( β x) β L( β ) = n exp( β x i) = exp( β xj) j R( ti) i 1 R( ti) 139

10 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No

11 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No

12 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No.3 3 Cox 142

13 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No Cox

14 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No.3 初 婚 年 齢 学 卒 後 初 婚 までの 期 間 係 数 ハザード 比 Z 値 係 数 ハザード 比 Z 値

15 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No.3 [Acknowledgement] [] 145

16 日 本 版 General Social Surveys 研 究 論 文 集 [6] JGSS で 見 た 日 本 人 の 意 識 と 行 動 JGSS Research Series No.3 [] 146

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