首都直下地震災害からの経済復興シナリオ作成の試み

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1 ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.250 October 2010 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan

2 The views expressed in ESRI Discussion Papers are those of the authors and not those of the Economic and Social Research Institute, the Cabinet Office, or the Government of Japan.

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4 Economic recovery scenario planning for the Tokyo inland earthquake Shingo Nagamatsu Associate Professor, Faculty of Safety Science, Kansai University Haruo Hayashi Professor, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Abstract The economic damage caused by the Tokyo Inland Earthquake disaster is estimated at 112 trillion yen by the Central Disaster Management Council of Japan. The estimated figure however is surrounded by so much uncertainty that there surely exists a risk of the actual damage caused by an earthquake disaster exceeding the estimated damage. Moreover, the figure does not present a concrete image of disasters and the recovery process and has little impact on the development of concrete countermeasures against the economic problems caused by the disaster. In order to cope with such a problem, we employ scenario planning as a decision-making method under uncertainty. In this paper, we developed four scenarios of economic damage and recovery processes after the disaster. These scenarios are generated by the following two major uncertainties. The first uncertainty is the default risk of Japanese government. In the event that Japan s financial status deteriorates or the damage caused by the earthquake far exceeds the estimate, the Japanese government might face difficulties in financing the recovery. The second uncertainty is a gap between demand and supply in a recovery-related market, especially in the construction sector. If the gap is sufficiently larger, damaged houses, infrastructure, and firms assets can be quickly restored without price increase. Otherwise, restoration will take a long time and bring with it the risk of price increase. The anticipated Tokyo inland earthquake will not be so catastrophic as to compel the Japanese government to default. However, it will be large enough to delay the recovery process and cause a price increase, since the construction market has shrunken to almost half since the 1995 Hanshin Awaji Great Earthquake. To avoid such a risk, assistance from the international community in debris removal, waste disposal, and reconstruction should be seriously considered. 2

The estimated figure however is surrounded by so much uncertainty that there surely exists a risk of the actual damage caused by an earthquake disaster exceeding the estimated damage.

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35 2010. Simon Forge, Colin Blackman and Erik Bohlin, Constructing and using scenarios to forecast demand for future mobile communications services, Foresight, 8(3), 36-54, Simon Forge Forecasting quantitatively using micor/meso/macro-economics with scenarios for qualitative balance, Foresight, 11(1), 43-60, Kiichi Tokuoka The Outlook for Financing Japan s Public Debt, IMF Working Paper, WP/10/19, H. Toya and M. Skidmore Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters Economics Letters, 94, pp ,

首都直下地震における地方財政への影響

ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.241 首都直下地震における地方財政への影響宮崎毅 August 2010 内閣府経済社会総合研究所 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan ESRI ディスカッションペーパーシリーズは内閣府経済社会総合研究所の研究者および外部研究者によって行われた研究成果をとりまとめたものです