日本の出生率低下の要因分析:実証研究のサーベイと政策的含意の検討

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1 ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.94 by April 2004 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan

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3 , yusuke_date@ hotmail.com 3

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5 ,153, % 2% United Nations (2002)

6 Kosai et.al. (1998) 2003 Hotz, Klerman and Willis1996 The Economics of Fertility in Developed Countries Handbook of Population and Family Economics pp Arroyo and Zhang(1997) Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey Journal of Population Economics, vol.10, pp

7 replacement ratio demographic transition (total fertility rate)

8 the second demographic transition %

9 Crude Birth Rate Crude Marriage Rate

10

11

12 3 31. Malthus H. Leibenstein Becker R.A. Easterlin H. Leibenstein 3 1 2

13 15 Becker(1960, 1991) Quality-Quantity Model Becker Becker Willis(1973) Willis Willis , ,500

14 Becker and Lewis(1981)Becker (1988) Becker and Barro(1988) and Becker(1989) altruism 1992 Becker, Murphy and Tamura (1990) 18 Barro(1991) GDP Lucas GDP GDP 60 GDP 20 Yamauchi and Senda (2003)1910

15 Schultz (1973) Human Capital Theory Theory of the Allocation of Time Household Production Function Easterlin(1969, 1973) 2 70 Becker1973 Becker

16 Becker

17 Easterlin(1969)

18 3 2. (1) (2) (3) 25 (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 1 1 (1) (6) (7) (9) Butz and Ward 1 Butz and Ward(1979) f m m f m m W K Y Y K W K Y K Y K B ln ln ln ) (1 ln ln γ γ γ γ β β β β = = B m Y f W K ( ) ,, < = > = > + = γ β γ β γ γ β Butz and Ward 25

19 Ogawa and Mason(1986) Butz and Ward Ogawa and Mason Ohbuchi(1982, 1988), (1996) Butz and Ward Kramer and Neusser (1984)

20 % , 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 OECD 1981

21 2 31 Ohbuchi(1988) Ohbuchi (1982)

22 Ohbuchi(1982)

23 1999 Ohbuchi(1982) Ohbuchi(1988) Heckman

24 Ohbuchi (1988)

25 Bivariate probit 2000

26

27 1997 Oyama (2001)

28 4 (1) (2) (3) sample selection bias endogeneity bias

29

30 Waldfogel Waldfogel % a

31

32

33 % %

34 Kohler et. al. (2002) Lowest-Low Fertility

35 70 80

36 2003 H pp pp (1997) 53 1 pp pp.1-6. (2000). (2002). (2003) pp pp (1996) = 52 2 pp

37 ( H ) pp pp :. Mason, AndrewTuljapukar, ShripadLi, Nan2003. Decle, Robert( pp pp VAR H

38 pp (2004) (1997)Economy, Society, Policy 306 pp (1989) 45 2 pp (1995) 42 2 pp (

39 3 4 pp No.459 pp (1999) 35 2 pp (2001). (2003) 39 1 pp , 46 pp CVM No No pp H

40 1999 H pp pp pp H pp pp pp pp pp pp

41 pp a b pp I pp pp pp pp

42 3 pp (1996) 3. Waldfogel, Jane pp , pp pp No.48, pp No.459, pp pp No.860. (1998) 54 1 pp

43 pp ) pp pp pp pp pp Arroyo, Cristino R. and Zhang, Junsen (1997) Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey Journal of Population Economics, vol.10, pp Barro, R. J. (1991) Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.106, pp Barro, R. J. and Becker, G. S. (1989) Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth, Econometrica, vol.57, pp Becker, Gary S. (1960) An Economic Analysis of Fertility, in Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, Universities-National Bureau Conference Series, vol.1, Princeton University Press. (1973) A Theory of Marriage: Part 1, Journal of Political Economy, vol.81,

44 pp (1974) A Theory of Marriage: Part 2, Journal of Political Economy, vol.82, pp (1991) A Treatise on the Family, second edition, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, (1988) Family Economics and Macrobehavior,American Economic Review, Vol.78,pp.1-13 and Lewis, H. Gregg. (1981) On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 81, pp and Barro, R. J. (1988) A Reformation of the Economic Theory of Fertility, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.103, pp.1-25., Kevin Murphy and Robert Tamura(1990) Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth, Journal of Political Economy, vol.98, pp Butz, William P. and Ward, Michel P. (1979) The Emergence of Counter-cyclical U.S. Fertility, American Economic Review, vol.69, pp Cigno, Alessandro (1991) Economics of Family, Oxford: Clarendon Press. Dasgupta, Partha (1995) The Population Problems: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.18, pp Easterlin, R.A. (1969) Towards a Socioeconomic Theory of Fertility, S.J. Behrman et al., eds., Fertility and Family Planning: A World View, University of Michigan Press. (1973) Relative Economic Status and the American Fertility Swing, E.B. Sheldon, ed., Family Economic Behavior; Problems and Prospects, Lippincott. Hotz, V. Joseph, Klerman, Jacob Alex and Willis, Robert J The Economics of

45 Fertility in Developed Countries, Handbook of Population and Family Economics, pp Kato, Hisakazu (1997) Time Series Analysis of Fertility Change in Postwar Japan, Jinkougaku-kenkyu ( ), vol.20, pp Kohler, Hans-Peter, Billari, Francesco and Ortega, José(2002) The Emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during 1990s, Population and Development Review, vol.28, pp Kosai, Yutaka, Saito, Jun and Yashiro, Naohiro (1998) Dealing Population and Sustained Economic Growth: Can They Coexist? American Economic Review, vol.88, pp Kramer, Walter and Neusser, Klaus(1984) The Emergence of Counter-cyclical U.S. Fertility: Note, American Economic Review, vol.74, pp Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1988) "On the Mechanics of Economic Development," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 22, pp Nagase, Nobuko (1997) Wage Differentials and Labour Supply of Married Women in Japan: Part-time and Informal Sector Work Opportunities, Japanese Economic Review, vol.48, No.1 pp Nakamura, Jiro (1999) On the Determinants of Career Interruption by Childbirth among Married Women in Japan, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies No.13, pp Ogawa, Naohiro and Mason, Andrew(1986) An Economic Analysis of Recent Fertility in Japan: An application of the Butz-Ward Model, Jinkogaku-kennkyu ( ), vol.9, pp Ohbuchi, Hiroshi (1982) Empirical Tests of Chicago Model and the Empirical Hypothesis: A Case Study of Japan, Jinkougaku-kenkyu ( ), vol.5, pp.8-16.

46 (1988) The Quantity and Quality of Children, Labor Supply and Wages of Married Women in Postwar Japan, Jinkougaku-kenkyu ( ), vol.11, pp Oyama, Masako (2001) Fertility Decline and Female Labor Force Participation in Japan, Discussion Paper, the Population Research Center at NCOR and University of Chicago Discussion Paper Series. Rosenzweig, Mark R and Schultz, P. (1985) The supply of and Demand for Birth: Fertility and its Life-Cycle Consequences, American Economic Review, vol.75, pp and Schultz, P. (1987) Fertility and Investments in Human Capital: Estimates of the Consequence of Imperfect Fertility Control in Malaysia, Journal of Econometrics, vol.36, pp , and Oded Stark eds (1997). Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Amsterdom: Elsevier Science B.D.. Schultz, William (1973) The Value of Children: An Economic Perspective, Journal of Political Economy, vol.81, pp United Nations (2002) National Population Policies 2001, United Nations Population Division. Waldfogel, Jane, Higuchi, Yoshio and Abe, Masahiro (1999) Family Leave Policies and Women s retention after Childbirth: Evidence from the United States, Britain, and Japan, Journal of Population Economics, vol.12, pp Willis, Robert J. (1973) A new approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior, Journal of Political Economy, vol.81, pp Yamauchi, Futoshi and Senda, Tetsuji (2003) Schooling Investment in Girls and Boys: Evidence from Rural Village in Prewar Japan, mimeo. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C..

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